| NFL | |
|
NFL Mock Draft 2009 Draft of 2009 Lacks Star Power NFL Draft 2009: Getting Started Super Bowl Well Worth Tuning In For
|
| NBA | |
|
Prospects On Center Stage NBA Preview 2008/09: Final Call
|
|
Jets Shaking Up Fantasy Landscape At RB By Ron Jumper So last season, the Jets had a great duo of running backs in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. The two combined to gain 1760 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. When you consider that, between the two of them, they only got 23.5 carries a game thanks to the pass-happy style Mangini wanted to implement with Brett Favre around, it is all the more impressive. Now, Favre is gone. Enter rookie Mark Sanchez. Factor in both are now wanting to get paid, plus the Jets just drafted RB Shonn Greene in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, and the Jets have a puzzle to solve this off-season. I’ve got a headache already trying to figure out how this will affect the fantasy landscape. Last season, without question, Thomas Jones was an absolute fantasy stud. Using standard scoring, Jones tied for 4th with Matt Forte among running backs last season with 225 fantasy points. That is more than LT, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Clinton Portis, or Frank Gore. When you consider that he probably went in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, he was one of the biggest steals of the year. However, the Jets are gradually including Leon Washington more and more in the offense, Jones has hit that ugly age of 30, and the offense is going to take on a whole new look now that both the coaching staff and starting quarterback are gone from last season. How will this shake out? For starters, it depends on who gets paid this off-season. If Washington or Jones (both of whom are holding out), gets paid but the other doesn’t then that could dictate how the touches are divided up. That is just life. If it gets ugly between one of the backs and the organization, leading to a trade being demanded then that could bump Shonn Greene up into a much more significant role. Speaking of Greene, if it wasn’t for his character concerns, I would consider him the best back in the running back class of 2009. Watching him play on numerous occasions, he just seemed so much more fluid than his Big Ten counterpart Chris Wells. They are both big and run a similar 40 time, so I was leaning heavily in favor of Greene. The scouts, as is usually the case, disagreed with yours truly. Landing with the Jets, it doesn’t appear he will get an opportunity to contribute much as long as both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are on the roster and healthy. However, I could see a scenario where if Thomas Jones was cut, injured, or traded that Greene would be able to take over as the Thunder to Leon Washington’s Lightning in a two-back attack similar to that of Jones and Washington from 2008. When looking at the Jets personnel and anticipating what type of offense they will be, one just has to believe they will become a run-first offense as opposed to last year where they would get a little pass-happy at times (if you sense bitterness, you are correct because I owned Thomas Jones in a couple of leagues and he didn’t get the ball enough, okay!). New head coach Rex Ryan is a defensive coach that I envision instilling a tough, hard-nosed style based on running the football and playing good defense. Actually, it could be very similar to what the Ravens did last season with Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback. If the 2009 Jets look anything like the 2008 Ravens on offense, then whoever ends up being the starting running back or receiving the bulk of the carries should be fantasy gold. The Ravens led the NFL last season in rush attempts, with 592 carries for 2,376 yards. In comparison, the Jets only had 422 rushing attempts. If those numbers hold true (we know they won’t exactly), that is a 40% increase in carries to go around for the Jets backfield. If Thomas Jones’ carries increased by 40%, he would get an additional 116 carries. Assuming he has the same yards per carry, that bumps him from 1312 yards rushing to 1827 rushing yards. We all know, at age 30, this is an unrealistic goal to have for Jones this season. However, it does illustrate the point that an increase in touches due to a change in offensive philosophy could also lead to fantasy success for the Jets running backs. As for Sanchez’s fantasy value, the Ravens were 28th in the league in pass offense with Flacco under center last season. The Ravens were 30th in pass attempts with 433 attempts (with Flacco taking 428 of those) , with Flacco tallying 2971 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Those are not numbers you want anywhere near your starting fantasy QB. I know Matt Ryan looked good in Atlanta slinging balls downfield to Roddy White, but I’d have to say that staying away from Mark Sanchez until further notice is the best way to go. So we’ve discussed the running backs and quarterbacks, what about the receivers or tight ends? This is where it becomes tough to calculate. On the one hand, we assume that they will throw the ball much less under the new coaching staff, especially without Favre. However, the Jets lost Lavernues Coles to the Bengals, so that should mean an increase in targets for Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, right? Again, using the Ravens as a reference, Derrick Mason was able to have a solid season (1037 yards, 5 TDs) with a rookie QB but no other WR got fantasy relevant touches. TE Todd Heap was respectable for a tight end with 403 yards and 3 TDs. Looking at the Jets roster, I could see Cotchery and Keller having oddly similar numbers in 2009 as Mason and Heap did in 2008. If that is the case, Cotchery would become a fill-in, flex wide receiver and Keller would drop down to almost irrelevant in terms of fantasy value. I say that with confidence about Keller because, besides considering him and Heap similar in talent, the numbers are a very strong indication. Last season, Favre threw 522 total pass attempts for the season and Keller had 535 yards receiving. On the flip side, Flacco threw 428 total attempts and Heap had 403 receiving yards. If you were to make a ratio of receiving yards-to-pass attempts (okay, so I did), Keller-to-Favre’s would be 1.02 and Heap-to-Flacco’s would be .94, which is an oddly strong correlation. In conclusion, keep an eye on the Jets running back situation this off-season to see how everything shakes out. Once the pre-season gets started, watch the ratio of run-to-pass that Rex Ryan implements with his offense. Don't forget to keep an eye on how sharp Shonn Greene looks with the 2nd and 3rd string units. May 12, 2009 |
| NCAA Football | |
|
Be Careful What You Wish For
|
| NCAA Basketball | |
|
Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
|