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Super Bowl Well Worth Tuning In For
By Ron Jumper

While some just can’t get on board with the Cardinals being in the Super Bowl, I’m all about it. I think it has all the juicy plot twists and intriguing matchups needed to keep everyone happy. Both teams are completely opposite in style and personnel, as the Steelers are a running, hard-nosed defensive team while the Cardinals are explosive in the passing game and opportunistic defensively. No, I don’t mean opportunistic as a nice way of saying they aren’t that good on defense. I mean they aren’t overly big or loaded with familiar names, but they have a done a great job of getting sacks and turnovers. They have forced 12 turnovers in the three playoff games so far, compared to the Steelers 6 in their two playoff games.

That leads me to my biggest key of the game for both teams: getting off to a good start. When looking at the Cardinals, your first thought is that because they pass so well they can come from behind. Looking at the numbers throughout the regular season and playoffs, looking at the halftime score was a very strong indicator of how the game would turn out.

In the Cardinals 12 wins, they were winning by an average score of 18.2 to 9.1 at the break.

In their 7 losses, they were losing at halftime by an average 5.1 to 21. That is a point differential of 25, a drastic swing.


On the flip side, the Steelers are thought of as more of a running team that would struggle to come from behind. However, they were 3-3 in games they trailed at halftime so they did show some ability to come back.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 in games they have the lead at halftime, with the only loss coming at the hands of the Colts.

Oddly, neither the Steelers nor Cardinals lost a game in which it was tied at halftime, as the Steelers went 2-0 and the Cardinals went 3-0.

I’ve got my winner picked out for this one, though I can’t disclose that information here. However, something that intrigues me more about the Cardinals is where do they go from here? Kurt Warner is likely to retire after this season and offensive coordinator Todd Haley is likely to take the Chiefs head coaching job.

Actually, forget the Cardinals…

What about my fantasy team?

I rode Kurt Warner all season long in two of my leagues. He saved me because Matt Hasselbeck and Derek Anderson were absolutely terrible. As for the dynamic duo of Fitzgerald and Boldin, what happens to them? Both were studs all season long. Fitzgerald finished as the top fantasy WR and Boldin finished 7th, even though he missed multiple games due to injury. If Leinart takes over the reigns, are these still elite fantasy wideouts just on talent alone?

While Warner’s retirement could have a negative impact in the passing game, what does this do to Tim Hightower? With Edgerin James likely gone, does Hightower become a highly sought fantasy back? He had a great nose for the end zone (10 touchdowns) and caught the ball well (34 catches, 237 yards). It makes sense to think this production would grow as his role in the offense becomes larger.

So, based on their performance in the playoffs, is the Cardinals defense fantasy worthy? As I’ve mentioned before, they became a whole new defense this postseason. They scored touchdowns, forced turnovers, got sacks. Basically, exactly what you want your defense to do. Points and yards matter, but turnovers and sacks trump all in fantasy. I fear I may feel like the Milwaukee Bucks in 2001 after inking Tim Thomas to 6-year $66 million deal, following a big playoff performance. Only time will tell…

As for the actual game, it may lack serious star power (no Manning, Brady, Owens, McNabb, LT, etc.). It may not have the huge television markets like New York, Dallas, or Chicago. However, put all that aside and look at the actual matchups. I see a great game likely to take place this Sunday.

Here is what I mean:

Kurt Warner vs. Steelers’ Blitz
The Cardinals have insane playmakers at WR, with not only Fitzgerald and Boldin but also Steve Breaston. If the Steelers can get after Warner and not let him take shots down the field, it really limits how effective they are. Leading me to…

Cardinals Running Game vs. Steelers Rush Defense
Much as I’ve said in previous Cardinals games, they don’t have to run all over the place. Just get into the 20+ carry range and 60-70 yards, so there is some balance. If they are able to run the ball with some success…

Fitzgerald vs. Polamalu
I know, I know, Polamalu is a safety and won’t be lined up against wide receivers often but he will be over the top playing center field. At least 5 times in this game, the Cardinals will try to attack down the field to Fitzgerald off of a playfake, double move, etc. Put all the x’s and o’s aside for a minute, it comes down to heart and desire because both Fitzgerald and Polamalu are studs. Whoever comes down with the ball is more about who wants it more.

Cardinals aggressive defense vs. Steelers methodical offense
The Cardinals don’t just line up and play you straight up, they pick their spots well to really blitz hard and take chances. If the Steelers can establish the run and not turn the ball over, they should have success in terms of time of possession, turnover margin, penalty yards, etc. If the Cardinals stop the run early, forcing the Steelers into passing more on 1st down and some 3rd and longs, that opens the door for them to be aggressive and force turnovers. Keep in mind, Roethlisberger didn’t perform well last time around in the Super Bowl. If the Steelers are running well, thus always being in 2nd and medium or 3rd and short, they can pick the Cardinals apart with play action.

Ken Whisenhunt vs. Mike Tomlin
How much of an impact will it have that Whisenhunt used to coach in Pittsburgh? Will he be able to figure out what the Steelers are doing on offense? To be realistic, who doesn’t know what the Steelers are going to do? They will run a lot on first down, and even second down, hoping to be in manageable situations all day. When they do have to pass, Big Ben will look to Hines Ward as his possession receiver and Santonio Holmes will be the big play threat down the field. The key will be the tricks the Steelers usually have up their sleeves in games like this. Will the Cardinals be ready for whatever gadgetry is coming at them? We shall see…

I don’t know about you, but I’m excited to see it all transpire.

January 29, 2009

 

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