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Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
By Ron Jumper
So the bracket is finally out and I’m very excited to begin breaking down all the matchups. As for how my final bracket projection went, not too bad but I’ll go more in depth on that later. The committee did a great job overall and there isn’t much I would complain about or change, but there are a few things that I must discuss. You didn’t really think I wouldn’t have a strong opinion about at least a few things did you? Come on, you should know better by now.
So, as for my final bracket projection, I think I did pretty well. Of the 65 teams in the field, I correctly picked 63 of them. Of those 63, I had 51 seeded either correctly or within 1 seed of where they actually ended up. As for how that competes nationally, Lunardi had 64 of the 65 teams correct and 55 seeded correctly or within 1 seed of their actual seeding. Shawn Siegel, of College Hoops Net, had 63 of 65 teams picked correctly and 58 seeded correctly or within 1 seed of their actual seeding. I finished behind both, but I’m right on their tails. There is always next year.
(That doesn’t mean I haven’t ever out done the experts, my mock draft was more accurate than both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay in last year’s NFL Draft and I also out-dueled Chad Ford in the last NBA Draft. This was my first try at projecting the entire bracket so hopefully I can improve next season.)
I was way off on Syracuse, as they moved all the way up to a 3 seed. I had them as a 7, on the same line as West Virginia. I also can’t believe the SEC was shown such little love, as pretty much all the experts had both LSU and Tennessee much higher. Putting those 2 in the 8-9 game all but ensures the SEC won’t have a team make the Sweet 16, even though the SEC truly isn’t that bad. I feel like Florida and South Carolina are not far behind, if any at all, from the likes of Arizona, Maryland, or Wisconsin. Lastly, I felt that Clemson was better than just a 7 seed even though they lost a few games down the stretch.
So the second the bracket came out, some of the obvious upsets people were picking were Arizona over Utah, VCU over UCLA, or Mississippi State over Washington. I’m here to tell you that none of those three will actually happen. Nope, sorry to say. Arizona was the last team in and, suddenly, they are the trendy upset pick? I’m not buying it. Eric Maynor led VCU to a win over Duke two years ago and, even though I’m a huge fan, they will not beat UCLA. I am glad Mississippi State won the SEC tournament so the SEC could get another team in but beating Washington is no easy task. The Huskies were the best team in the PAC-10 throughout the regular season.
I think a lot of it stems from no one watching PAC-10 basketball outside of the West Coast. As for yours truly, I actually watch everybody play. Here are some upsets that might actually happen:
12 Wisconsin over 5 Florida State The Badgers are so sound defensively and play at a slow pace. They could potentially frustrate FSU and force them to play a style they are unaccustomed to. Also, the Seminoles rely on one scorer (Toney Douglas) and it will be easy for the Badgers to play great team defense to really slow down Douglas. It reminds me a lot of when Wisconsin handled Michael Beasley and Kansas State in last year’s tournament.
11 Dayton over 6 West Virginia The Flyers weren’t playing great down the stretch, but they were pretty good throughout the season and should be higher than an 11 seed. Just two weeks ago, I had them as high as a 6 seed. Expect them to give the Mountaineers all they can handle.
11 Utah State over 6 Marquette The Aggies aren’t a great team, but the Golden Eagles just haven’t been the same since Dominic James injured his foot. Also, Marquette is undersized and may have trouble with Gary Wilkinson inside. Utah State isn’t a powerhouse by any stretch, but you don’t win 30 games because you’re lucky.
March 16, 2009
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