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Prospects On Center Stage
By Ron Jumper
So the Final Four is here once again and it always presents an opportunity for players to showcase their skills on center stage one last time. The result of playing really well can skyrocket a player up the draft board, while getting exposed can do severe damage. I usually try to keep a level head and not let one weekend overshadow the entire body of work they put together over the course of the season. That is how mistakes can be made, I tend to point back to when Tyrus Thomas blew up during LSU’s Final Four and went in the top 5. I have said this nine million times, the Bulls should have taken LaMarcus Aldridge instead to address their needs inside. Aldridge is averaging 18-7 to Thomas’ 10-6, I think that speaks for itself. Not to mention Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay went later as well. Anyways, back to this year’s crop of players.
The four teams involved have prospects ranking in the top 5 all the way to prospects who likely will go undrafted, as is the case every year. The interesting thing to me is, once games end Monday, these guys won’t have played any basketball but their stock will rise and fall all over the place between now and the draft. I try to be consistent. If I like a player’s game, I like his game. Keep things simple. Let’s get started. UConn: Hasheem Thabeet This is a player that has come so far so fast. The sky is the limit for him. Granted, I don’t think he will ever score 20 points a game. However, he is basically a lock to average a double-double and 2+ blocks for the next decade. His game varies in style, but there is no way he isn’t as good as Samuel Dalembert or almost as good as Tyson Chandler right now. Just my opinion, but I feel like that as long as you don’t depend on him to lead the team in scoring then he is the safest prospect in this draft to rebound, block shots, and change the game on the defensive end for your franchise. Thabeet should go in the top 3 and, as of right now, the teams with the best chances of getting him are Sacramento, Washington, and the Clippers. The Wizards are in desperate need of a true center and either the Kings or Clippers would improve drastically on defense with his presence inside. Jeff Adrien If he was just 6’9" instead of 6’7" then his stock would be totally different. As it is, he is barely on the radar. I highly doubt he gets drafted. That being said, Adrien is a great rebounder and has a solid offensive game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sticks on a roster in training camp or gets the call after performing admirably in the D-League. A.J. Price Price is an interesting prospect because of how inconsistent he is. If a scout watched his 10 good games, they would love him. If you watch his 10-15 poor games, he isn’t getting anywhere near being drafted. He is such a streaky, explosive scorer that is unguardable when he gets going. The problem is that Price just didn’t do it consistently enough so that you really know what you would get if you drafted him. The second round is possible, but undrafted is more likely. Kemba Walker This is a guy that just needs to decide what he wants to do. He would get drafted in the first round most likely, but he is not ready to play at the NBA level yet. His situation reminds me of Javaris Crittenton, as he was picked in the first round but he has bounced around all over the place. Walker has the ability, but he needs to take the time to develop his game in college first. If he just wants to get paid and hang out on the end of the bench, he can do that. However, if he took one more year to work on his game and become the starting point guard for the Huskies next season then he likely is a Top 10 pick this time next year. North Carolina Tyler Hansbrough For the second year in a row, the Tar Heels are in the Final Four. A large reason for that is obviously Tyler Hansbrough. The big question is what will he do in the NBA? My biggest concern is defensively, as he has never averaged more than .7 bpg any year of his career (.4 this season). A big man that doesn't block shots better score, that Hansbrough does really well in college. However, translating his game to the NBA is tougher since he isn't fluid nor does he possess a long-range jumpshot. It also didn’t help the Blake Griffin looked obviously superior in the Elite 8. Hansbrough had better play well against fringe second rounder Dante Cunningham, or his stock could free fall. If he does play well and leads his team to victory, a likely matchup with UConn would give him another opportunity (depending on how you look at it) to go against Thabeet.
Ty Lawson This is the most unusual crop of point guards that I’ve ever covered. There is the international flavor with Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings, then there are what I call the “prospect” points guards like Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, and Stephen Curry, then there is a hard to distinguish jumble of “pure” point guards. In alphabetical order, there is Darren Collison, Johnny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, and Patrick Mills. They all played point guard in college and excel at running their team. With Lawson, he has unmatched speed in the open floor and I think he has that “it” factor because of the way he steps up in big games and makes big shots in the clutch. It should also be taken into account that he has improved his 3-point shooting this season from 36% to 48%. That is a ridiculous climb for only one season. Speed, outside shooting, and experience should help ease scouts worries that he is only 5’11. I expect Lawson to go between 15-25 in the first round.
Wayne Ellington I have a tough time with Ellington, as I just don’t think he will ever be much more than a spot-up shooter. His form is really smooth but, when it comes to extending his arsenal of moves, that set shot can make it tough to add fadeaway jumpers and pull ups over long defenders to your game. As far as attacking the rim, he doesn’t have the same explosiveness that a Demar Derozan, Chase Budinger, or James Anderson has. He will go in the first round but I’m not convinced he’ll be much more than a role player down the road.
Danny Green Very erratic decision making and shot selection, as I get nervous watching him play at times. Green can shoot that basketball and defend, I just wish he was 6’7 instead of 6’5. Green really isn’t a shooting guard, and he is just a little short to play small forward. Likely second rounder, should be able to hang on to a roster in training camp.
Villanova
Scotty Reynolds Reynolds is a great college player, but he doesn’t have a great assist-to-turnover ratio (1.24-1) and he shoots an unimpressive percentage from 3 (35%). At 6’2, he has to be a PG in the NBA. In a year with a lot of point guards, Reynolds might get left out. He is still only a junior, if he comes back for his senior season and improves then he might sneak into the draft.
Dante Cunningham This guy was nowhere to be found last season, but has broken out on the scene as a senior. As I discussed earlier, he has a huge opportunity to play against Hansbrough and at least solidify himself as a second rounder. At 6’8 230, he can play power forward in the NBA because of his much improved mid-range game. Would like to see more than 1.3 blocks, but it isn’t a weakness considering he also gets you 1.2 steals. It would be a longshot at this point, but he just might make it in the NBA.
Corey Fisher Reminds me a lot of Kyle Lowry, as he is strong, explosive guard that slashes to the rim. His numbers aren’t impressive, but I chalk a lot of that to him only average 24 minutes. Next season, he should get up into the 28-32 minute range and bump his numbers. He needs to improve his jumpshot and raise his assist average, but I think he could be a pretty solid player this time next season or the year after that.
Michigan State **The fact that the Spartans are the only team in the Final Four without a McDonald’s All-American really sums it up.
Raymar Morgan The best NBA prospect on the Spartans by far, though he had health issues much of this season. I like his game, he doesn’t force things and plays within himself. Morgan takes a lot of mid-range jumpers and doesn’t take many threes. In fact, under 10% of his field goal attempts for his career are from downtown. This is why he shoots a high field goal percentage (53% this season and 56% last season). As far as his current draft stock, he would be crazy to come out now. If he stays for his senior year and gets completely healthy, then he should be good to go this time next season.
Kalin Lucas The more I look at his number, the more I come away impressed. Lucas averages 14.6 points, 4.6 assists, and shoots 39% from 3. That is very comparable to the other “pure” point guards that I mentioned earlier. That being said, he would be best served to go back and play at least one more year (he is only a sophomore). If both him and Morgan return next season, the Spartans should have a very good season and that usually helps your draft stock.
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Is the SEC on its way back?
With the news that Calipari is going to Kentucky, that certainly leads you to believe he will improve that program. Beyond that though, the SEC is starting to assemble good coaches throughout the conference. Trent Johnson (LSU) and Darrin Horn (South Carolina) both did phenomenal jobs in their first year as coaches. Another hire that is being wrongly overshadowed is Anthony Grant at Alabama, the former VCU coach has great ties to the state of Florida and should be able to bring in the horses to run in the SEC. With the influx of new coaches, we still shouldn’t forget about Billy Donovan, Andy Kennedy, or Bruce Pearl either. It wasn’t long ago I would throw John Pelphrey into this list as well, not so much now…
All things considered, it isn’t going to happen overnight. It usually takes coaches 2-3 years to make it happen at a new school, so possibly by the 2010-11 season the SEC will be back near the top as a basketball conference.
April 2, 2009
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