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Jumpology: Does Winning Trump All?
By Ron Jumper

So it is time for me to take a little break from examining the Sweet 16 matchups to discuss other aspects of the NCAA Tournament. In regards to receiving an at-large bid for the dance, does winning in the dance validate receiving that bid? In other words, Arizona was the last team in. Does the fact that they made it to the Sweet 16 mean the committee did the right thing? Or is it what happens once they get in is irrelevant, as the body of work from the regular season is what makes you deserving of a bid?

I feel free to discuss Arizona openly because I have been a long time fan of their basketball program but, that being said, I tend to side with the thought that winning doesn’t validate being an at-large because then you have to take that fundamental argument full circle. In hindsight, does losing in the first round mean you shouldn’t have been in the tournament to start with? Teams like Clemson, Florida State, Illinois, Utah, West Virginia, and Wake Forest all lost in the first round (in some cases in embarassing fashion) but they obviously deserved to be there. Winning in the tournament has just as much to do with timing and matchups as it does anything else.

Another way to look at it is that we have no idea what would have happened had those other teams gotten in instead. Keep in mind, George Mason was the last team in and many thought it was outrageous that they got in. The Patriots made the Final Four. What if they hadn’t gotten in? Better yet, what if someone left out this season was capable of doing the same thing?

How can we know?

We can’t. That is exactly why, in my opinion, we have to judge a team’s resume and put the 34 best ones in. It isn’t what we think is the better team or who would win head-to-head because, if it was just an “eye test”, there would be way too much subjectivity and there would be no way for the committee to all agree on the same teams because they are all from different parts of the country, have differing opinions of the strength of conferences, etc. Arizona was obviously a talented team, as Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger are virtual locks for the lottery. However, if you can determine a mid-major with no future pros has a better body of work then that is who should be in. The least subjective way to evaluate teams is with the RPI, looking at the SOS, and so forth. This isn’t a foolproof system but it is the only way to keep it from being completely subjective.

Lastly, there is an emotional element that comes into play. If you are the last team in and it is controversial, the media plays it up and makes a story out of it. What often happens is that the team that has heard all week they didn’t deserve to be in comes out with a chip on their shoulder to try and prove they do belong in the field. On the flip side, the team that gets left out often acts disinterested in winning the NIT and goes out early. This has little to do with how talented each team is, but more of how motivated each team is to really compete in the postseason tournament they qualify for.

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One team that isn’t sulking is St. Mary’s, as they are continuing to win impressively in the early rounds of the NIT. Patty Mills squared off against Stephen Curry and led the Gaels to a solid win Monday night. Mills had a poor shooting night, but more than made up for it by being a playmaker. In my opinion, this was a clear showing of why Mills is a better pro prospect then Curry. I look at Curry’s game and I just see a great college scorer, I don’t see someone that can defend in the NBA or transition into a point guard. As for Mills, I see him being a very good playmaker. His lack of height will hurt, but it isn’t a deal breaker.

Overall, I think this is a very underrated crop of point guards. There is Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Jeff Teague, Johnny Flynn, Jeremy Pargo, and Darren Collison, plus others. I have to think that with Chris Paul and Deron Williams playing so well and Derek Rose getting drafted first overall, the way scouts value point guards may be changing. The days of the lottery being almost exclusively for athletic wings and centers may be over, as GMs may start to understand the value of having a great floor general at the reigns.

March 24, 2009

 

    NCAA Football
    Be Careful What You Wish For

Top Prospects 2009: Week 10

Top Prospects 2009: Week 9

Top Prospects 2009: Week 7

 

    NCAA Basketball
    Jumpology: My Bracket

Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights

Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket

Jumpology: The Final Bracket