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Jumpology, Part II: Making Sense Of It All
By Ron Jumper
So, a week later, one would hope things would begin to get clearer and clearer. However, the bubble only seems to be expanding for more teams than it is bursting. Thought to be a dying breed, some mid-majors may still be alive after all to receive at-large bids. Because of the schedule, some high-majors who seemed to be done for still have a shot if they can upset a team or two. All in all, there are still 20-25 teams going for 10-12 spots. There is still so much basketball left, but here goes nothing:
For starters, the schedule presents opportunity. That is going to be a theme this week. It is critical to make a schedule that matches what your team needs to do in order to make the dance. In the coaches’ defense, a team like Penn State couldn’t have known it was going to have this kind of year. The Nittany Lions non-conference schedule indicates they weren’t expecting to be making a NCAA tournament run, as it is very light. Penn State lost to Rhode Island and Temple, beat Georgia Tech and… that’s it. If they don’t finish at least 10-8 in Big Ten play, that weak non-conference schedule may come back to bite them.
Another team that really didn’t plan accordingly was Saint Mary’s. They were 18-1 going into the Gonzaga game and actually were leading until Patty Mills got injured. However, Mills didn’t play the second half, the Bulldogs rallied, and they stumbled to a 1-4 stretch in their next five. It wouldn’t have been that bad had they beefed up their non-conference resume. However, they lost to UTEP then beat Providence and San Diego State, leaving much to be desired in terms of quality wins. Only being 8-4 in the weak WCC isn’t impressive either. They did beat Utah State at home, however, I think that speaks more to the Aggies not being that good than anything else.
Speaking of Utah State, they are 25-3 but you couldn’t have a weaker schedule. Typically, the WAC is stronger but neither Nevada nor New Mexico State is as strong as previous seasons. In the non-conference, they beat Utah but that isn’t enough. On the other side, if they win out in the regular season and advance to the WAC conference tournament final but don’t win the automatic bid, that puts them right at 30 wins. Can you really leave out a team with 30 wins, regardless of schedule?
Who Should Be The Top Seeds?
As of right now, Pitt seems to be the obvious choice. They are atop both the polls and RPI rankings. Then Oklahoma seems to be in great shape as long as Griffin gets back in the next week. UNC is looking pretty strong in the much improved ACC. However, who should be fourth?
UConn is the most qualified but can both Pitt and UConn be #1 seeds? I’m not so sure. Has Michigan State really done enough to make a case for themselves? (Personally, the Big Ten is not worthy of the 7 teams they are probably going to get in. I would go Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois then I’m not sold on the rest of them. Hey what the heck though, I can fade them all in the first round…) Memphis wasn’t even ranked going into Conference USA play and, now that they’ve beat up on the inconference rugrats (plus Tennessee and Gonzaga), suddenly they are a contender for a #1 seed? I’m not buying that either. Duke is close to earning a top seed, but they have a similar problem to UConn, being that UNC is probably getting a top seed already from the ACC and the Blue Devils don’t have as good a record as UConn does. Usually, there is a team out West to compete for a top seed. It makes the top seed distribution more geographically pleasing. However, neither Arizona State nor UCLA is quite in that category at this point, though the Sun Devils do have both Washington and Cal left on the schedule. If they win out and climb the polls the next two weeks, it might be possible. Another longshot is Marquette, they get UConn in their building, at Louisville, at Pitt, then Syracuse at home. If they can win out and be 16-2 in the Big East, they could be a top seed candidate as well.
Important Games Coming Up:
Duke @ Maryland Terps could always use another quality win.
Mississippi State @ Tennessee A Bulldogs win might creep them back on the bubble.
West Virginia @ Cincinnati Both fighting for their tournament lives.
Minnesota @ Illinois Gophers could use another quality win.
Purdue @ Michigan Perfect chance for Wolverines to get a big win.
Illinois State @ Creighton The Blue Jays need to keep on winning and this is their last chance to beat good club.
Temple @ Dayton Temple could really use a huge road win.
Utah @ BYU Cougars need another solid win to feel safe.
Ohio State @ Purdue Buckeyes need to prove they can win road games.
Michigan @ Wisconsin Battle of the bubble in the Big Ten.
February 24, 2009
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