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Fantasy Football 2009: Burning Questions For 2009
Staff
The NFL season just ended, but it is never too early to begin looking to next season. Ron Jumper and Ric Atkinson answered 12 burning questions concerning the 2009 Fantasy Season. What could be better than football coverage year round?
(We think nothing…)
Twelve Burning Questions in 2009:
1. What are the chances DeAngelo Williams finishes as the top fantasy running back in 2009?
Ric: I just don’t see it. As of right now I have him as my #8 fantasy running back for next year. I like DeAngelo and the Carolina running game, but I do expect Williams to get a few less touches next year. In fact, I think there is a lot more value in using your fifth or sixth round pick on his teammate Steve Smith rather than a first rounder on Williams.
Ron: With Williams, he didn’t take over the majority of the carries until later in the season due to Jonathon Stewart getting a little banged up. I still see Stewart as a big part of their offense next season. Williams appears to have a role similar to that of Maurice Jones-Drew with Fred Taylor, which can be a little confusing week to week knowing which back is going to have the better fantasy day. I probably won’t own DeAngelo next season because he will be drafted higher than I value him. I don’t feel secure taking him in the first round. If I could get him at the end of round 2 or round 3, then I’m excited about it.
2. Is LT’s run as the obvious top pick officially over?
Ric: Yes it most likely is. If he stays with the Chargers it definitely is. But if he gets moved to a team that understands how to utilize him he could very well return to the LT of old and be the best value pick in any fantasy draft.
Ron: We should commend Norv Turner for being the only coach in America that could stop LT over the course of his career. I still believe LT has top 5 fantasy talent but they are wanting to incorporate Darren Sproles more and Phillip Rivers seems to be becoming the franchise player instead of LT. It looks to be the end of fantasy dominance for LT…
3. Which rookie running back is most likely to sustain his success next season?
Ric: I’m looking for both Matt Forte and Chris Johnson to keep putting up big numbers next year. The question becomes how early will they go in your fantasy draft. Look for both guys to be gone in the first round. I currently have Forte as my #5 running back and Johnson at #6. I really see a lot of value in Steve Slaton (a steal if you can get him in the third round) and Tim Hightower (target him in the 7th or 8th round).
Ron: I have to believe Matt Forte is here to stay. He is the short yardage, redzone back and he is also the 3rd down back that catches a lot of balls. He can really do everything, which will always have him racking up fantasy points in some way, shape, or form. I like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton, but not as top 5 picks as I feel Matt Forte is.
4. Is Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady the top fantasy quarterback going into next season?
Ric: It has to be Brees. The Colts offense may be slowing down some, and while the coaching change seemed pretty smooth it’s still a variable that you have to consider. The Pats should bring Brady back fairly slowly, so you might not get the numbers you want early in the season. If you do draft Brady, the smart move would be to get Matt Cassel as well.
Ron: The Saints passing game is just impossible to stop. With them being behind a lot, Brees should be slinging the ball all over the place again next season. Also, a full season with a healthy Marques Colston should help as well. I will say Manning finished the season very strong and is right behind Brees. Expect Anthony Gonzalez to continue to emerge as the second option in the passing game for the Colts. Last season, when Brady went in the top 5, that was just too high. Now, if he goes in the 3rd round or so, I might actually be able to draft him. I have confidence in Brady to be back to his old self.
5. Is Aaron Rodgers now an elite fantasy quarterback?
Ric: I wouldn’t call him an elite fantasy QB, but I do see him as a very solid, start every week fantasy QB. I have him as the #9 QB on my list. That puts him in a group with guys like Warner, Rivers, Cutler, and McNabb, just a step below the elite guys like Brees, Brady, Peyton Manning, and Romo.
Ron: When I look at Rodgers’ season, he finished second and was pretty solid the entire year. The Packers have Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant as weapons. I have Rodgers ranked 7th. If the Cowboys let go of Owens, I think I might have to bump Rodgers ahead of Romo (currently ranked 6th).
6. What credence should be given to Tyler Thigpen’s hot finish to the season?
Ric: With the hiring of Todd Haley as head coach, the QB spot in Kansas City really turns into something worth keeping a close eye on. However, I’m not convinced Thigpen will be their starting QB on opening day.
Ron: The Chiefs offense was playing much better down the stretch, Gonzalez and Thigpen included. A lot can happen here so watch closely. The Chiefs may cut Gonzalez or Larry Johnson, taking away the Chiefs best weapons. They might draft Mark Sanchez, bumping Thigpen out of the lineup. However, if Haley gives Thigpen the nod, expect a good season from both him and Dwayne Bowe.
7. How much does the fantasy value of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin drop if Kurt Warner retires?
Ric: Obviously all three guys staying in Arizona is the best thing for the Cards, but it’s also probably the best thing for the fantasy value of all three guys as well. If Warner stays, I have Fitzgerald as the #1 WR and Boldin as the #3 WR. If the Cards lose only Warner or Boldin, I would keep Fitzgerald at the top of the WR list. If the Cards lose both Warner and Boldin, I would drop Larry to #2 on my WR list behind Andre Johnson.
Ron: I think the loss of OC Todd Haley is also very key. However, if Leinart is the man, they will throw more like 30-35 times and for 200-250 yards. That is less yardage to go around, as we shouldn’t forget Steve Breaston either. I have to put Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson ahead of Fitzgerald if Leinart is the gunslinger.
8. Of this season’s overachievers at WR (Antonio Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Lance Moore, Kevin Walters, Eddie Royal), which is most likely to repeat their performance in 2009?
Ric: Of that group I would take Eddie Royal. He really would be a great value pick in the 6th or 7th round.
Ron: I’m taking Vincent Jackson. The Chargers sling the ball all over the place and Jackson was the go-to target from week 6 on. He is a steal in rounds 7 through 10.
9. This was an odd season for tight ends, what would be your top 5 right now?
Ric: My top 5 right now is: 1. Jason Witten 2. Antonio Gates 3. Tony Gonzales 4. Dallas Clark 5. Chris Cooley
Ron: For me, I’m going: 1. Jason Witten 2. Tony Gonzalez 3. Antonio Gates 4. Dallas Clark 5. Visanthe Shiancoe
10. Can the Chargers and Patriots D/ST recapture fantasy gold?
Ric: I just don’t see that happening with the Chargers, but the Patriots defense seems like a pretty good bet for next year. The front office in New England has a very solid grasp of the personnel moves they need to make, and always get the most bang for their buck. That said, there is no fantasy defense worth more than an 11th round draft pick.
Ron: The Chargers will get Shawne Merriman back and that will help a lot. However, this seems to be a team that tries to outscore you to win games. For the Patriots, they should be a solid defense but not an elite defense unless they hit another home run in the draft like Jerod Mayo. Regardless, let someone else grab a defense in round 7 and pick up a couple of solid defenses in rounds 12-15.
11. With Monte Kiffin following his son to Tennessee, is the Bucs long run of defensive dominance over?
Ric: Losing Kiffin doesn’t help at all. Combine that loss with the steady improvement on the offensive side of the ball by all the teams in the Bucs division and it does look like the Tampa Bay defense should be down graded this coming season.
Ron: It is funny, when this team collapsed down the stretch it cost Gruden his job. However, it was once Kiffin decided to take the Tennessee job that the Bucs D rolled over and played dead the last 4 games. They are keeping it in-house with Raheem Morris, but there has to be some adjustment period right?
12. How long can Ray Lewis (33) and Ed Reed (30) play at this level to keep the Ravens an elite fantasy defense?
Ric: In my opinion if the Ravens can resign Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs, Lewis is expendable at this point. Reed however is not. He is one of the top five defensive players in the league. Lewis is still a very solid player; Reed on the other hand is a game changer.
Ron: Ray Lewis is the heart and soul of the Ravens defense. He is the captain and emotional leader. Wherever he goes, that team will be a lot better. Reed is the most talented defensive player in the NFL at any position, keeping him is vital. With the talent on defense and the ability to grind on the ground to control the clock, they should be fantasy gold again next season. Will they be our top defense? Wait and see…
February 12, 2009
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