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College Hoops Roundup: Hitting The High Notes
By Ron Jumper


With it being the midway point in the season, it is time to break down what all has transpired. From the big dogs to the mid-majors, there is much to keep an eye on and discuss. Some conferences have been disappointing and all upside down, while others seems as dominant as ever. There have been some nice surprises this season and I’ll discuss whether they will make an impact in March. The 2009 NBA draft is going to be a strange draft, everyone loves Blake Griffin but then deciphering the rest of the lottery seems like a huge headache. So much great stuff to discuss, here goes:


SEC:

The SEC is typically known for being a football conference, but SEC hoops had made its way back as of late with Florida winning back-to-back titles. However, this year the conference has fallen off the map for the most part. There is no heavyweight that seems primed for a Final Four run, though Tennessee could get hot and make things interesting. There isn’t a player in the entire conference projected to go in the lottery, though that could always change (more on this later). If it wasn’t for Arkansas taking down both Oklahoma and Texas in the same week, the SEC would still be struggling to have many signature wins. The Vols took down Marquette and Georgetown, South Carolina won at Baylor, but then it gets tough to pick out great wins. Florida and Alabama are disappointing for various reasons, Kentucky still needs another year to be back to what we are accustomed to, and Ole Miss has been devastated by injuries. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any good teams, they might just not be the ones you expected though. Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina were not expected to be anything special before the season but they sit a combined 35-5 thus far. If those three can prove to be real contenders in the SEC, maybe this conference can prove to be better than the experts think after all.

I have to take some time to break down what Arkansas is doing. Since the day John Pelphrey was hired at Arkansas, I said it would take until the third year to really know how good of a coach he is. The first season (last year) he had a star-studded senior class so winning would be easy. This season is all freshman and newcomers so it was supposed to be a rebuilding year, then next year was when Pelphrey was going to prove whether or not he could resurrect the Hogs to their traditional powerhouse selves.

Scratch all that, the Hogs are rocking and rolling well ahead of schedule. Granted, I think we will all realize Oklahoma and Texas weren’t as good as we thought, it is still very impressive. With the SEC West wide open, anything is possible with this young team because they have so much confidence and a decisive home-court advantage at Bud Walton Arena. Courtney Fortson is going to be special before he leaves the University of Arkansas, as he is the best freshman playmaker in the country.


ACC:

The ACC was “down” a little bit last year, but the emergence of Wake Forest onto the national scene and what appears to be another good Clemson squad has the conference liking its chances against anyone. They currently have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams in the country, though UNC really should be the top ranked team. After that Clemson is undefeated and neither Miami nor Maryland is anything to sneeze at. The wildcards are Boston College and Florida State, as they both have big wins and odd losses. Boston College beat UNC then loses to Harvard at home (more on Harvard shortly). Florida State has beaten Cincinnati, Cal, and Western Kentucky but lost by 14 at Northwestern. If those teams can find some consistency, the ACC may be able to get 7 or 8 teams into the dance.


WCC:

Gonzaga has been up and down this season, but I’m here to say I still believe. It has become a yearly tradition for Mark Few to schedule a really hard non-conference schedule. It then takes its toll on the team and they lose some games in December that are nothing more than a sign of the team becoming fatigued. Don’t believe me? Of their 27 losses in the last 4 years, 13 have come in December. Of those 13 losses in December, 11 came after December 14th. I have to chalk a lot of it up to fatigue, but that is just me. I understand the idea, as they need quality wins in the non-conference and better SOS (Strenght of Schedule) to make the dance. Considering they always make the dance, I can’t question Few’s master plan but it can help explain why Gonzaga has lost some games recently. For now, they will take on some inferior WCC clubs, and rest up in the process, before they face off against Saint Mary’s (13-1) January 29th.

The Gaels will pose quite a test for Gonzaga in WCC play. Patrick “Patty” Mills has emerged as an elite point guard because of both his stellar play at Saint Mary’s and his impressive showing for Team Australia in the Olympics. Scouts started to take notice when he went toe to toe with Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Expect Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s to battle all the way through the regular season and into the conference tournament.


Big East:

Pitt is undefeated and enjoying its turn as the top dog in the Big East. However, just give it a few weeks and the landscape of the Big East will have reshuffled again. The Panthers have a nice home stretch coming up, with St. John’s and South Florida, but then the Big East conference will flex its muscles as they play five straight ranked opponents: Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, and Notre Dame. I fully expect them to drop a game or two in that span, opening the door for someone else to climb into the top spot in the polls and/or atop the Big East standings.

I will be the first to admit that the Big East is the best hoops conference but, keep it in perspective, they have 16 teams! If other conferences could add four more schools, they would be significantly better as well. Add Memphis, Western Kentucky, Davidson, and UAB to the SEC or ACC then that becomes a nasty conference as well. Add Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Nevada, and San Diego State to the Pac-10 and they become an even tougher conference. Basically, I’m just saying that with 16 teams they should have the most teams in the polls and in the NCAA Tournament just from a basic math standpoint.


Butler:

The Bulldogs lost both Mike Green and A.J. Graves, making the expectations for this season substantially lower. However, they are 13-1 and ranked 20th in the polls, with the only blemish coming in a 3-point loss at Ohio State. Last season, Butler went 30-4 in Brad Stevens first season as head coach. The feeling going into this season, since they lost 4 starters, was that this year would be a “challenge” but it sure hasn’t seemed like it so far. The key returnee was Matt Howard, but the rest of the guys being counted on were newcomers. Freshmen Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward have come in and established themselves as some of the best players of any classification in the Horizon League.

With Horizon play here, it doesn’t mean they can set the cruise control though. Cleveland State (12-5, 3-2) may not be playing as well right now but, in my opinion, have the most overall talent in the conference. UW-Milwaukee wasn’t impressive in the non-conference, but has jumped out to a 5-0 start in conference play. The Phoenix of Wisconsin-Green Bay (10-5, 3-1) are led by the very underrated senior Ryan Tillema, who stands tall as a 6’8” 3-point marksman.


Ivy League:

At the start of the season, basically everyone assumed Cornell would be the dominant team in the Ivy League. Well, everyone except me (which you can read about here). Because they only tallied 8 wins last season, few thought Harvard was going to make any noise this season. However, the Crimson had basically everyone back and an oddly talented incoming class. Fast forward to now, they already have 8 wins this season highlighted by a big win at Boston College. Against BC, Jeremy Lin poured in 27 points and had a great all-around game. Lin is averaging 18 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, and 3 steals while shooting 45% from downtown.

Taking my word for it is great but, right after Harvard upset BC, I shot over an email to assistant coach Will Wade to get his take. Here is what he had to say:

“We are very excited about the win over Boston College. It is a great win for our program and continues to show the growth of Harvard Basketball on the court. As good as the Boston College win was, we start Ivy League play this week and it is like a 14-game tournament. We need to have the same spirit and competitive edge for the next 8 weekends to achieve our goal of winning the Ivy League.

Jeremy Lin has been tremendous for us all season and, last night, others around the country were able to see what a great player he is. He leads our team in so many different ways and one thing that went unnoticed at Boston College was that he guarded (Tyrese) Rice the entire game and held him scoreless in the 1st half and really limited his effectiveness. Jeremy is a hard worker and deserves all of the accolades he receives from his performance against Boston College. He has earned it every day through how he handles himself in practice and how hard he plays.”



Normally, hearing the “coach speak” is boring but, in this case, it is interesting to hear the nuances of the Ivy League and just how great a performance Lin really had in the BC game. There is no conference tournament, so the 14-game regular season matters and, unless you were in Boston to catch the game, you would have no idea Lin guarded Tyrese Rice the entire game and held him in check. Good stuff.


2009 NBA Draft:

So, while everyone loves Blake Griffin, I’m just not convinced he can be a big time NBA player. Griffin is a great athlete but he lacks a skillset to be productive when he faces players with similar size. I go back a few weeks to the Utah game when Luke Nevill and company shut Griffin down. The Utes sent double teams his way and he was very uncomfortable attacking, often settling for long jumpers outside of his range. Then, against Arkansas' Michael Washington, Griffin again became relatively normal looking, especially on the defensive end.

Some use Michael Beasley as a comparison for Griffin, but watch Beasley closely. Most players don’t have any semblance of a mid-range game, Beasley has a stellar jumpshot from about 17 feet that has to leave Griffin jealous.

While I don’t think Griffin is going to be a superstar, if things hold up and the Thunder have the first pick it would make perfect sense for them to draft the local product. Imagine the jersey and ticket sales Griffin would add to the rebuilding franchise. It also works from a depth chart perspective. The Thunder would be building around Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Griffin.

As for how I would rank the top 2009 NBA Draft Prospects, here is my top 10:

1. Greg Monroe, Georgetown
2. Hasheem Thabeet, UConn
3. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
4. Ricky Rubio, Spain
5. James Harden, Arizona State
6. Earl Clark, Louisville
7. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
8. Patrick Mills, Saint Mary’s
9. Austin Daye, Gonzaga
10. Ty Lawson, UNC

January 10, 2009

 

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