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NBA Preview 2008/09: Getting Started
By Ron Jumper

The NBA is almost upon us and, before I go team by team, I wanted to hit some of the high notes that intrigue me about this season. That includes discussing Artest, the all-new eastern conference, and even the economy's impact on this upcoming season. There is much to discuss, as this is one of most intriguing seasons in some time. I'm looking forward to watching it all unfold.

Starting with Artest, the Rockets are once again the sexy pre-season pick to emerge out West. However, in the words of Lee Corso, “not so fast, my friend.” Try to keep it all in perspective, Yao Ming hasn't been able to play through an entire season, so banking on him to make it all the way through the playoffs isn't likely. Then, examine Tracy McGrady for a minute. There is a reason he isn't Kobe Bryant. He doesn't defend at that level nor does he have that competitive fire and the ability to lead his team. Now, for Artest, he isn't on the same level as Kevin Garnett in any way, shape, or form so I don't really want to hear about this trio non-sense. Does he make them better? Absolutely. Does it put them ahead of the Lakers, Jazz, or Hornets out West? I'm not so sure.

That doesn't mean the Rockets can't put it together and make a finals run, I just think people need to remember the negatives as well. As for the positive, I love what they could potentially do defensively with Shane Battier, Ron Artest, and Yao Ming on the floor at the same time. Battier and Artest play physical on-ball defense and Yao is there in the back line as a safety net. Also, in that situation, T-Mac would not have to guard the opposing teams top perimeter player, an obvious plus. Offensively, not much would change, as it will be hard to get Artest too many touches after T-Mac and Yao. Artest can score, but it would come at the expense of running the offense inside and out through Yao and T-Mac. The double-teams are what guys like Shane Battier live off of because it leads to a lot of open looks outside. The Rockets are a very talented team and could be dangerous come May, just remember it is a longshot.

Looking at the new Eastern Conference, it is going to be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Jermaine O'Neal in Toronto, Elton Brand in Philly, and Richard Jefferson in Milwaukee could all make a serious impact. Oddly, of those three, I think Brand will have the LEAST impact. There I said it, the 76ers will not be that much better than last season. You are probably wondering why, but it is very simple. They didn't address their biggest weakness: outside shooting. With Brand likely to draw double teams, outside shooting is pivotal for them to score in the half court. Also, unless they play Brand at center often, they could take away their high-paced, pressure defense that made them so effective last season. They put Thaddeous Young at the 4 then played fast and got after it defensively. At first glance, it appears Brand makes them a much better team but, upon further review, I don't think this team will live up to expectations.

The Raptors are an intriguing team. I have always liked their ability to play offense and shoot the basketball. However, I didn't think Bosh was gritty enough or they had enough players who could create their own shot. Enter Jermaine O'Neal, who I believe addresses both issues. He is a dominant presence in the paint on defense and can be a nice high-low compliment to Bosh on offense. With those two drawing a lot of attention, the Raptors outside shooters should get plenty of open looks. Kapono wasn't great last year, but remember how good he was playing alongside Shaq? He was outstanding. The one downside I have is that they could miss T.J. Ford more then they realize. I like Jose Calderon, but he had better deliver now that he is the man at point guard. If Calderon does, this Raptors team could be dangerous.

I look at the Milwaukee Bucks and they are so hard to figure out. On one hand, they added Richard Jefferson and didn't lose really anything. They have added Scott Skiles as their head coach, and he should improve them defensively. However, I could also see their being problems because I don't know if the guys on this team have any interest in committing to defense. I look at Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villanueva and I just don't know if those guys will buy in to the defensive mentality that Skiles will try to implement. If somehow they do, I love what they can do on offense. Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson are a nice combo, then Bogut inside will provide balance. If they can defend at all, they can be a force to be reckoned with this season.

In most sports, hiring a marquee head coach is an obvious reason to be optimistic. However, in the NBA, it can be very hit or miss. Examining the hirings of Mike D'Antoni and Larry Brown leads me to believe anything is possible. The Knicks might improve but it depends on how willing they are to abandon ship on Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, and Zach Randolph and turn to Nate Robinson, David Lee, Wilson Chandler, and Renaldo Balkman. Also, Danilo Gallinari is a nice all-around rookie that could be a key to speeding up this transition process. However, if they try to turn plodders into sprinters, they won't have much success. Asking Eddy Curry to get in shape is like asking me to cover baseball, it ain't gonna happen. Also, the sooner they figure out what they are going to do with Starbury the better. It is a dark cloud hanging over the team right now.

As for the Bobcats, I wonder how long Larry Brown and MJ can coexist? I'm going to guess February or so. For me, I gave up hope on the Bobcats after this last draft. How in the world can you justify drafting D.J. Augustin with Brooke Lopez and Jerryd Bayless on the board? To top it off, they take Ajinca at 20 who won't be able to contribute for 2 or 3 years. That doesn't indicate a team trying to win now, though the Brown hiring does appear like they want to make a push now. What gives? I say they land in the 30-35 win range and miss the playoffs again. In the process, Brown calls it quits and leaves town.

Changing gears, all anyone wants to blab about is Greg Oden coming back and how good the Trail Blazers are going to be. That could all be fine and dandy, just don't overlook LaMarcus Aldridge. It was Aldridge who averaged 18 and 8 last season and will only get better. Standing 6'10 250, Aldridge is one of best athletic specimens in the game, with a jumpshot to match. If they are to meet expectations, it won't just be Oden stepping his game up.

When examining potential candidates for Rookie of the Year, opportunity has just as much importance as ability. That being said, I'm not expecting big things from Derek Rose or Jerryd Bayless. I am, on the other hand, expecting a lot from Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Donte Greene, and OJ Mayo. Look at last season, Durant was able to take as many shots as he wanted as the focal point of the offense (I picked him to win the ROY last year by the way). Beasley will be the second option after Wade, as Marion prefers to be a finisher and not a facilitator. The offense will run through Wade and Beasley, with Marion contributing in his usual all-around fashion. For Greene, he will have a chance to play heavy minutes for the depleted Kings and putting up shots has never been a problem. For Mayo, he might not average 25 points but should have nice assists, rebounds, and steals to go along with 12-15 ppg.

On to a more serious topic...

The negative impact of our economy could also trickle down to effect the NBA. While obviously all pro sports could be effected, the NBA more so. How? Well, because no other pro sport in America has the same international threat as the NBA currently has. Say the economy causes ticket sales and so forth to go down, then owners decide to cut back on player salaries. Europe is sitting right there, especially Russia and Greece, to pluck NBA players. And, if you are an NBA player, why not? These European clubs are not only offering huge contracts but the tax benefits and other freebies are outstanding. Fans don't want to think so, but pro sports is a business and, with that being the case, it can be argued the best business move is to go to Europe.

On the flip side, most of the time when the U.S., Europe, or Asia's economy struggles it can often lead to the rest of the world feeling its effects. If Europes' economy struggles as well, suddenly those European team owners might not be as free with their checkbook. Keep in mind, NBA owners are trying to run a profitable business even if they decided to buy the team as a hobby. In Europe, the team owners that want to go after NBA players know full well they will lose money by acquiring them, but they want them just the same so they can win because they have such deep pockets it is worth the cost to them. With a struggling economy, winning might be not the top priority like it was before. So, in essence, the struggling economy just might come full circle to save the NBA. Chew on that for a second. I am curious to see how this is going to play out and how David Stern is going to handle it. If Mark Cuban had his way, he knows what he would do: “When the economy slows, and competitors have issues, that's the time to double down and take marketshare.” If the NBA ever wants to catch the NFL, that just might be the way to go. I am not always the biggest risk taker, but I admire those that do. Cuban, whether you love him or hate him, has to be admired for his willingness to be aggressive and take risk. Only time can tell the best way to go about it but, hopefully, David Stern will make the right decisions.

October 19, 2008

 

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