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Fantasy Preview 2008: Last Minute Cram Session
By Ric Atkinson
Every year at about this time we begin to sift through all the “Coach Speak” and try to sort out the fact from the fiction that could make or break you fantasy team. We have some clearer ideas about which late round sleepers will be able to help your team, and which guys will not be on the field. Lets start off with some guys you want to get in the late rounds of your draft.
Sleepers:
1. Kurt Warner (QB Arizona) From all indications, Warner has won the starting QB job in Arizona. In the last 8 games of 2007 Warner had 20 TD passes. With the great skill position players he’ll have to work with, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect him to continue the great play this year. 2. Tim Hightower (RB Arizona) Another Cardinal that I see as a very deep sleeper. He looks like the prototypical touchdown vulture. Don’t be surprised at all to see him on the field when Arizona gets inside the five yard line. He’s not going to get you many points for yardage, but in 12-team leagues that are running back heavy he might be just what the doctor ordered.
3. J.T. O’Sullivan (QB San Francisco) I’ve had Alex Smith on top of my sleeper list all preseason because of Mike Martz fantasy friendly system. However, it appears that the complexities of Martz system were too much for Smith to handle. O’Sullivan’s ability to pick up the system quickly makes him the starter and a great late round sleeper pick.
4. LJ Smith (TE Philadelphia) Often injured himself, it looks like all the injuries to the Eagles receiving corps now makes LJ Smith a good fantasy sleeper pick. McNabb needs to throw the ball to someone, and Smith looks like his best option until Kevin Curtis gets back.
5. Ted Ginn, Jr. (WR Miami) The addition of Chad Pennington in Miami really helps Ginn’s value. While Pennington might not be able to throw the long ball, he will be able to get the ball into Ginn’s hands and allow him to become a playmaker.
6. James Hardy (WR Bills) The Bills need a big possession receiver and Hardy will provide that presence. Expect him to get a solid amount of redzone touchdowns.
7. Nate Burleson (WR Seattle) With every Seahawk WR but Burleson hurt, he has no choice but to emerge as the top option. Seattle will throw for somewhere between 225 to 300 yards a game, so there is going to be yardage to go around. Also keep an eye on Jordan Kent, as he has played well in the pre-season for Seattle.
8. Devin Hester (WR/KR Bears) Hester has been getting more and more involved in the passing game. Kyle Orton says he has been making great strides learning to play the position. We know how dangerous he is, why not grab him late?
Players To Avoid:
1. Rudi Johnson, Bengals Injuries are taking their toll on Rudi. It doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to go in the season opener. The mess that is the bengals offensive line still make any Cincy RB a bad play. Look for Kenny Perry to get the start, and for a RBBC situation for the rest of the year. Also, with the Chad Johnson injury, the Bengals have contacted teams hoping to unload Rudi for a proven WR.
2. Chad Johnson, Bengals The shoulder injury is a real concern, as is the previously mentioned Bengal offensive line.
3. Willie Parker, Steelers He only had 2 TDs last year, it looks like he might be giving up his red zone carries this year, and this years Steelers offensive line is not as good as last years. None of this looks like good news for Parker.
4. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins With a resurgence of Ricky Williams, Brown has been replaced on the depth chart. Not sure how long this will last, but be careful taking Brown too early.
5. Earnest Graham, Bucs The Bucs are going to be dividing up the carries to Graham, Dunn, Bennett, and possibly Cadillac Williams the second half of the season. Don’t expect Graham to put up big numbers. Dunn should also get the bulk of the catches, as he excels in the passing game.
6. Derek Anderson, Browns We weren't big on Anderson to begin with. Then he didn't perform well in the pre-season. Then he got a concussion. Now, we feel very comfortable saying he is risky taking him in the top 5 rounds.
Injury News:
Antonio Gates was able to participate in full workouts for the first time Sunday. It’s still not 100% clear if Gates will be ready for the season opener, but the full work out is good news.
Dallas’ Pro Bowl Cornerback Terrence Newman practice for the first time in four weeks on Monday. That’s great news for any one who owns the Cowboys D/ST.
Todd Heap has an injured calf that will keep him out of the pre-season, but he will be ready to go for the opener.
Matt Hasselbeck will not play anymore this pre-season, but he fully expects to be ready to go for the season opener.
Peyton Manning has still not stepped foot on the field, but don’t worry. Manning is just too fiery of a competitor to not play this season at a high level.
And last but certainly not least, NFL MVP Tom Brady says he will be ready for the Patriots season opener even if his foot injuries keep him from taking a single snap during the preseason. Of course, anything you hear coming out of Foxboro should be taken with a grain of salt.
Rising Stock:
1. Steven Jackson, Rams Jackson is back under contract and ready to go. We loved Jackson this year and, now that he is signed, we fully expect him to have a big year. Have no fear drafting him early.
2T. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Cardinals These guys will have much better numbers now that Warner is the man. Leinart would have thrown around 180 to 200 yards per game, but Warner is going to throw about 300 to 350 yards a game. There is simply more yards to go around.
3. Santonio Holmes, Steelers Holmes has established himself as a big time playmaker and Big Ben’s top target, especially down the field. Expect another high YPC average this season.
4T. Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, Panthers The Panthers running game is back and ready to rumble. They have ran the ball great this pre-season and will lean on the running game early while Steve Smith isn’t playing.
5. Felix Jones (RB Dallas) The Dallas coaching staff is raving about Jones this preseason. They already had high expectations for him, and he is even better than they had hoped. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Jones.
August 25, 2008
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