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College Football 2008: Big Ten Preview
By Ron Jumper As we continue to break down each conference, it is time to examine the Big Ten. This is a conference that receives much criticism, especially in SEC territory, about how overrated it is and what not. Remember the first few weeks of last season when the Big Ten was just plain awful? They were losing to FCS, MAC, and Sun Belt teams. Then, once conference play started, people forgot about it because they were only playing each other. However, I remember. The Big Ten is not terrible, but to say that they could hang with the SEC or Big 12 is laughable. Here are some questions about the Big Ten going into the season: -Is the third time the charm for Ohio State? -Will Illinois establish themselves as an elite program? -What can we expect from Michigan? -Can Northwestern get over the hump and make the postseason? -Should Wisconsin be getting more BCS consideration? -Does Mark Dantonio continue making his mark on the Spartans program? 1. Is the third time the charm for Ohio State? It is real simple with Ohio State. They have an elimination game on September 13th. If they go in and beat USC on the road, then they are deserving of competing for the national championship. The flip side, however, is that they simply don’t deserve even a sniff if they lose. Why? Because it cements the fact that nothing is different this year from the last 2 so it would be a waste of time to put them in the championship. They return basically everyone, so it is very possible they can win at USC. James Laurinaitis, Malcolm Jenkins, Chris Wells, and company are quite a talented bunch. To top it off, USC has some question marks on offense and could not be at full strength early. The rest of their non-conference is cupcake city. In Big Ten play, they do have to play both @ Wisconsin and @ Illinois so they could conceivably stumble in one of those. Luckily for Jim Tressel, he has a veteran team because those are three tough road games. 2. Will Illinois establish themselves as an elite program? It isn't to say Illinois won't be good again, but I would be careful when predicting just how good. The most important piece from last year, Rashard Mendenhall, is gone. Many experts say Juice Williams is ready to carry the load offensively, but that might not be the case. Williams was still pretty mediocre throwing the ball last season with a completion percentage of 57% and TD:INT ratio of 13:12. He wasn't all that impressive, even with Mendenhall to lean on, so asking him to be the man is no easy task. They still have a great weapon in Arrelious Benn and emerging depth at every position, thanks to several great recruiting classes, so talent is not the issue. I see them winning 8 games this season, which isn't elite but it is nothing to skoff at either. Illinois is on the way up without question, but I'm not ready to put them on the same level as Ohio State and Wisconsin just yet. 3. What can we expect from Michigan? Honestly, I don't even think Rich Rodriguez knows what to expect out of his Wolverine club. However, they had better figure it out in a hurry when you look at that schedule. Utah is no slouch the their first 3 Big Ten games are against ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State) so they have little time to figure things out. In my opinion, that is a deadly combination. Breaking in a new coach and having a tough early schedule could lead to a disasterous season. When you throw in that they lost Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Jake Long, the Wolverines could just be in trouble. Just be happy for the post-season if you are a Michigan fan this season.
4. Can Northwestern get over the hump and make the postseason?
Some experts really think it just might happen, but I’m more skeptical. Will they get off to a good start? Of course, they don’t play a team who made a bowl until October 11. However, that doesn’t mean they will win 7 or 8 games and make a bowl. Don’t forget they lost to easy teams last season, such as Duke at home. Now they are a lock to win at Duke this season with new coach David Cutcliffe? I don’t think so. Besides, the fact one can even make a valid argument as to why a team will lose to Duke is reason enough not to bank on their postseason success.
5. Should Wisconsin be getting more BCS consideration?
Yes, without question. I can see them making the BCS as an at-large team this season. Breaking it down, I don’t see a non-BCS school getting in and I only see the ACC and Pac-10 getting one BCS bid. There are ten spots to fill so I see the Badgers making it to the BCS whether Ohio State makes it to the national championship or not.
Getting back to the Badgers, they have a big time running back in P.J. Hill, the best tight end in the country in Travis Beckum, the deepest o-line in the country, and 9 starters back on defense. Also, they don’t lose at home, as they are riding a 14-game streak at Camp Randall Stadium and they have only lost 1 game there since 2004. Guess who comes to campus on October 4. None other than Ohio State. That just might have upset written all over it.
6. Does Mark Dantonio continue making his mark on the Spartans program?
Without question, the only thing I’m curious about is when the Spartans will overtake Michigan as the best program in the state. The time is now for Michigan State because, while they are on the way up, the Wolverines will be down for a few years as they rebuild. During that stretch, Mark Dantonio can begin to get the in-state recruits and Ohio products that typically went to Michigan in year’s past. Take a look at past signing classes from these two schools, you’ll understand.
I would love Michigan State more this season, if they didn’t have serious issues on both the offensive and defensive lines. When you consider Dantonio’s system is built on being physical, that could be a major concern. They have a steady quarterback in Bryan Hoyer and a big time running back in Javon Ringer so they do have weapons but is it enough?
Going to the schedule, they have a tough opening game at Cal. Typically, Big Ten teams don’t do so well when they travel west. Their schedule as a whole has so many games that could go either way. I would most likely put them at 6-6 this season, then a jump into the 8-4 range next season.
August 23, 2008
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