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NFL Mock Draft 2009 Draft of 2009 Lacks Star Power NFL Draft 2009: Getting Started Super Bowl Well Worth Tuning In For
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Prospects On Center Stage NBA Preview 2008/09: Final Call
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2008 Fantasy Preview: Crunching The Numbers By Ron Jumper It happens every year in Fantasy Football and will continue to happen. Someone finishes the season towards the top in total points, but is down towards the bottom in the standings. They whine and complain how that could possibly happen. Many players have a few big games here and there, but don’t give great numbers on a week-to-week basis. At the end of the season, it looks like the player had a great year but, in reality, it was a couple of big games that inflated his numbers. In order to win week in and week out, players have to be consistent. I decided to try to come up with a simple system to get a better feel for how consistent players really are. I call this rating system Absolute Consistency Score (ACS) because it takes out those abnormal games and focuses on what the player did on a weekly basis. To do this, I took out the player’s best two performances and worst two performances, then averaged the remaining 12. I compared that average to the total 16 game average, with the difference being their ACS rating. Confused? Don’t worry, it will all make sense once you see the results. I listed the top 10 players at RB, QB, and WR from last season and gave them an ACS rating. Here is a rundown of what the ACS rating means: A great score is a positive (+) ACS rating, as that means they were consistent on a weekly basis and there was very little drop off on most weeks. A good score is from 0 to -.5, as that means they had a few abnormal games but were pretty steady throughout the year. From -.6 to –1.5, it is usually nothing to panic about but be careful just the same. If it comes down to a couple of players during the draft, let this rating be the tie-breaker. An ACS rating of –1.6 or higher means it is time to analyze the situation carefully. Were half his games in single digits and the other half in the 20s? Did he have two or three really abnormal games (good or bad) that make his ranking misleading? I’ll analyze the individual situations as we go along. Without further adu… Absolute Consistency Score (ACS): **Games missed due to injury or suspension are not factored in. Running Backs: 1. Ladainian Tomlinson: 293 Total Fantasy points (18.3 points per game) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 5, 9 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 44, 31 Remaining Points: 204/12 remaining games = 17 ppg (-1.3 ACS) 2. Brian Westbrook: 269 Total Fantasy points (17.9 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 9, 10 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 40, 36 Remaining Points: 174/11 remaining games = 15.8 ppg (-2.1 ACS) 3. Joseph Addai: 222 Total Fantasy points (14.8 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 2, 6 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 28, 28 Remaining Points: 158/11 remaining games = 14.4 ppg (-.4 ACS) 4. Adrian Peterson: 222 Total Fantasy points (15.9 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 0, 3 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 46, 40 Remaining Points: 133/10 remaining games = 13.3 ppg (-2.6 ACS) 5. Clinton Portis: 210 Total Fantasy points (13.1 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 3,5 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 25, 22 Remaining Points: 155/12 remaining games = 12.9 ppg (-.2 ACS) 6. Jamal Lewis: 207 Total Fantasy points (13.8 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 1,1 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 33, 27 Remaining Points: 145/11 remaining games = 13.2 ppg (-.6) 7. Marion Barber: 187 Total Fantasy points (11.7 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 0, 3 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 28, 23 Remaining Points: 133/12 remaining games = 11.1 ppg (-.6 ACS) 8. Willis McGahee: 174 Total Fantasy points (11.6 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 1,2 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 21, 18 Remaining Points: 132/11 remaining games = 12 ppg (+.4 ACS) 9. Edgerin James: 172 Total Fantasy points (10.8 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 6,6 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 20, 19 Remaining Points: 121/12 remaining games = 10.1 ppg (-.7 ACS) 10. Frank Gore: 170 Total Fantasy points (11.3 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 4, 4 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 32, 20 Remaining Points: 110/11 remaining games = 10 ppg (-1.3 ACS) After examining the running back results, I think it is very clear who to draft first overall: LT. For all those AD fans, he was really not that consistent when you break it down. Of his 222 points, 86 came in just 2 games. His –2.6 ACS rating is the worst of any of the players listed in this article, period. Brian Westbrook had a –2.1 ACS, which was second worst, but I’m still high on Westbrook because he never had a bad game all season long. His worst total was 9 (not counting the game he missed due to injury) so he was the poster child for producing every week. The reason his ACS rating isn’t great is because some weeks he would have 11 or 12 instead of 25, but that is a lot better than AD’s weekly totals of 3, 4, 5, and 7 plus the 2 games he missed due to injury. That is 6 games that AD killed you and your team probably lost because of it. If you want to take that risk instead of drafting LT, be my guest. I would rather have Westbrook and Addai over Adrian Peterson, but I am certainly in the minority there. Of the elite backs, the most consistent was Joseph Addai. It makes sense when you think about it. The Colts always score a lot and they don’t have a running back-by-committee approach. While Addai doesn’t have a lot of monster games, it is a lock that he is going to give you #1 Fantasy Running Back numbers every week. His numbers would be even higher, but the Colts rested him for most of the last 2 games before the postseason. The model of consistency was Willis McGahee, as he was the only running back with a positive ACS rating (+.4). McGahee is likely to fall to the second round. If you can get him in the second round then count your blessings because you have the perfect #2 running back. Quarterbacks: 1. Tom Brady: 378 Total Fantasy points (23.6 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 3, 17 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 38. 35 Remaining Points: 285/12 remaining games = 23.8 ppg (+.2 ACS) 2. Tony Romo: 283 Total Fantasy points (17.7 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 1, 3 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 34, 31 Remaining Points: 214/12 remaining games = 17.8 ppg (+.1 ACS) 3. Peyton Manning: 268 Total Fantasy points (16.8 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 3, 4 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 25, 25 Remaining Points: 211/12 remaining games = 17.6 ppg (+.8 ACS) 4. Ben Roethlisberger: 248 Total Fantasy points (16.5 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 4, 7 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 29, 28 Remaining Points: 180/11 remaining games = 16.4 ppg (-.1 ACS) 5. Drew Brees: 244 Total Fantasy points (15.3 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: -1, 1 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 29, 27 Remaining Points: 188/12 remaining games = 15.7 ppg (+.4 ACS) 6. Derek Anderson: 243 Total Fantasy points (15.2 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 5, 7 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 31, 28 Remaining Points: 172/12 remaining games = 14.3 ppg (-.9 ACS) 7. Matt Hasselbeck: 231 Total Fantasy points (14.4 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 2, 7 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 26, 21 Remaining Points: 175/12 remaining games = 14.6 ppg (+.2 ACS) 8. Carson Palmer: 221 Total Fantasy points (13.8 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 3, 4 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 37, 22 Remaining Points: 155/12 remaining games = 12.9 ppg (-.9 ACS) 9. Kurt Warner: 199 Total Fantasy points (14.2 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: -2, 2 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 26, 21 Remaining Points: 152/ 10 remaining games = 15.2 ppg (+1.0 ACS) 10. Jay Cutler: 198 Total Fantasy points (12.4 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 0, 2 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 27, 21 Remaining Points: 148/12 remaining games = 12.3 ppg (-.1 ACS) Quarterbacks are typically more consistent, but look at the worst 2 ACS ratings here in the top 10: Derek Anderson and Carson Palmer. That seems right, doesn’t it? Anderson was the surprise of the year and I’m still very skeptical that he won’t just be a one-hit wonder, especially now that he has been paid. Palmer’s inconsistent play was more about the bigger problems going on in Cincy, as well as Rudi Johnson’s injury plagued season. Whether it is Palmer’s fault or not, be careful taking Palmer as high as the third round. What is amazing to me is how consistent Brady put up those huge numbers. I don’t like taking a quarterback in the first round, but I can’t really argue against taking Brady either. I’d rather be set at running back then get Matt Hasselbeck in round 4, but taking Brady paid off big time last year. Wide Receivers: 1. Randy Moss: 280 Total Fantasy points (17.5 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 4, 4 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 36, 25 Remaining Points: 211/12 remaining games = 17.6 ppg (+.1 ACS) 2. Terrell Owens: 218 Total Fantasy points (14.5 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 2, 2 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 41, 24 Remaining Points: 149/11 remaining games = 13.5 ppg (-1.0 ACS) 3. Braylon Edwards: 212 Total Fantasy points (13.3 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 2, 6 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 26, 24 Remaining Points: 154/12 remaining games = 12.8 ppg (-.5 ACS) 4. Reggie Wayne: 198 Total Fantasy points (12.4 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 6, 6 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 22, 21 Remaining Points: 143/12 remaining games = 11.9 ppg (-.5 ACS) 5. Larry Fitzgerald: 188 Total Fantasy points (12.5 ppg) Worst 2 Fantasy Totals: 2, 6 Best 2 Fantasy Totals: 29, 27 Remaining Points: 124/11 remaining games = 11.3 ppg (-1.2 ACS) 6. Chad Johnson: 185 Total Fantasy points (11.6 ppg) 2 Worst Fantasy Totals: 4, 5 2 Best Fantasy Totals: 32, 28 Remaining Points: 116/12 remaining games = 9.7 ppg (-1.9 ACS) 7. TJ Houshmandzadeh: 179 Total Fantasy points (11.2 ppg) 2 Worst Fantasy Totals: 4, 4 2 Best Fantasy Totals: 26, 18 Remaining Points: 127/12 remaining games = 10.6 ppg (-.6 ACS) 8. Marques Colston: 176 Total Fantasy points (11 ppg) 2 Worst Fantasy Totals: 1, 3 2 Best Fantasy Totals: 24, 21 Remaining Points: 128/12 remaining games = 10.7 ppg (-.3 ACS) 9. Brandon Marshall: 170 Total Fantasy points (10.6 ppg) 2 Worst Fantasy Totals: 5, 6 2 Best Fantasy Totals: 24, 20 Remaining Points: 115/12 remaining games = 9.6 ppg (-1.0 ACS) 10. Plaxico Burress: 167 Total Fantasy points (10.4 ppg) 2 Worst Fantasy Totals: 0, 1 2 Best Fantasy Totals: 32, 20 Remaining Points: 114/12 remaining games = 9.5 ppg (-.9 ACS) For a wide receiver to have a positive ACS rating is phenomenal in itself, but for Randy Moss to consistently put up those kinds of numbers is just crazy. He had 8 games between 20 and 25 Fantasy points, plus a 36-point outing. That is unheard of for a wide receiver to be that consistent. Once again though, it will cost you a first round pick and I just am not a big fan of taking anything other than a running back in Round 1. Also, the playoffs don’t count towards his totals but he wasn’t very good in the postseason. Maybe teams started to figure out how to contain him. Either way, it is doubtful anyone can keep up that pace back-to-back seasons. The most inconsistent wide receiver was Chad Johnson at –1.9 ACS. It seems to be a recurring theme, so be leery of taking any Bengals in the early rounds. This is just another reason not to take Johnson, as there is enough trouble going on with him as it is. He basically had 2 monster games then was very average the rest of the time, as he didn’t even average double figures outside of those 2 big games. Another guy I would steer clear of is Plaxico Burress, as he wasn’t very productive last season anyway and now he is wanting a new contract. This could turn into a bad situation for Plax and the Giants. He also had a poor ACS rating of -.9, so I just can’t justify taking him in the 3rd or 4th round as projected. July 19, 2008 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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