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2008 NBA Draft Prospects: 21-30
By Ron Jumper
Here is the last installment of rankings, as I’ll begin working on mock drafts next week. As you can expect, because my rankings differed so much in the beginning, they really start to look different then any other rankings available here in the last 10. Hopefully, I’ll be able to look back in 3 or 4 years and say “I told you so” but only time will tell…
Ranking The Prospects: 21-30
21. SG/PG Russell Westbrook, UCLA Westbrook is a hard guy to get a concrete feel for, as he is a great athlete and defender but is a bit of a ‘tweener. He isn’t a pure point guard, but he is a little undersized and lacks shooting ability to be a shooting guard. Everyone wants to point to Monta Ellis, but he is a rare success story when it comes to undersized combo guards that aren’t great shooters.
(I realize I’m venturing off point, but it is intriguing. I look at Derek Rose, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook, and Jerryd Bayless. This is a much different looking group coming into the league then in year’s past. They are all great scorers and none of which are taller than 6’4” so I can’t help but wonder how these guys will transition into the NBA because there really isn’t a precedent to compare to. Normally, the lottery has either the latest hyped 6’7” shooting guard prospect or a multitude of 7’0” centers from all over the world.)
22. C Alexis Ajinca, France Speaking of 7’0” centers from all over the world, Ajinca is an interesting prospect himself. If he had come along 4 or 5 years ago, he would have been a lock for the top 10. However, because of the lack of promising international prospects in the last couple of drafts, the buzz on foreigners seems to have died down. Ajinca has great athleticism, but is very raw. Sound familiar? He is the classic boom or bust prospect.
About the lack of international prospects, there really hasn’t been a Dirk or Peja in a little while now. How can we forget the megabust Darko in 2003? In 2006, Bargnani was taken 1st overall and is definitely not an elite NBA player yet nor does he appear on his way through 2 seasons, Saer Sene was taken at 10 by Seattle and can’t even crack the rotation, and Thabo Sefalosha is a solid role player for Chicago. In 2007, Yi Jianlian was taken 6th and he had mixed reviews, but certainly didn’t have anywhere near the rookie impact of Yao. Speaking of the big man from China, he is the last impactfull international player and that was back in 2002.
23. PG Ty Lawson, UNC I’ve always liked Ty Lawson and feel he is a pure point guard with great quickness and instincts. He is undersized and isn’t a great shooter, but his ability to run a team will keep him in the league.
24. SG Brandon Rush, Kansas Rush is a little hard to get a great feel for. On one hand, he fits the bill on paper in terms of size, production, and experience. Then, on the other hand, he has had major knee surgery and neither of his brothers panned out in the NBA. Personally, I like his game and think he will be solid, just not spectacular. He needs to improve his jumpshot, as it worked in college but he needs to get off the floor more and add a little arch in order to be a great shooter at the NBA level.
25. C Roy Hibbert, Georgetown Because Hibbert isn’t the most athletic guy, he is actually better served landing in the latter part of the first round. Starting with Cleveland at 19, then Utah at 23, San Antonio at 26, and Boston at 30. None of those teams play at a fast pace and could use a skilled big man like Hibbert. All those teams also having aging big guys as well: Ilgauskas (33), Okur (29), Oberto (33), and P.J. Brown (38). An influx of youth inside might be a good thing. 26. PF Nikola Pekovic, Serbia I’ve talked about his situation in the past, but to recap. He has a nice contract making a couple million a year over in Europe for the next 3 years, so it might be hard to actually get him over to the NBA. That being said, he would be a safe pick just based on size and skill. He isn’t flashy, just a hard-nosed bruiser inside.
27. PG Mario Chalmers, Kansas I just wanted to go back over what I wrote about Chalmers prior to the Final Four:
Mario Chalmers: As always, I complain about how point guards are evaluated. It just never seems to make sense to me. Chalmers isn’t a great physical specimen but he understands the game so well. What I like most is that he can defend at a high level. He can do a little bit of everything, but isn’t really on the scout’s radar. I had an idea to explain how I feel about Chalmers:
Blind Résumé:
Player A -6’0” 160 -14.8 points -53% 3-point FG -2.6 rebounds -3.8 assists -1.74 assist/turnover ratio -1.8 steals
Player B -6’1” 190 -12.7 points -48% 3-point FG -3.1 rebounds -4.4 assists -2.33 assist/turnover ratio -2.4 steals
Player A is Darren Collison, who is being projected as a lottery pick. Player B is Mario Chalmers, who currently isn’t even projected to go in the first round of next year’s draft! Look at those numbers closely, as both are undersized but efficient. Both play great defense and are leaders of their respective teams. How can there be such a drastic gap in where they are ranked by NBA scouts?
Funny how things change isn’t it? Now, it is Chalmers projected to go in the first round and Collison isn’t even staying in the draft. I’m all for being humble, but this is me patting myself on the back.
28. SG Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky Lee is a safe and simple prospect. I’ve heard some interesting comparisons, with some being as lucrative as Brandon Roy. I wouldn’t go that far, but he should be a quality player that contributes on a winning team. He doesn’t have the size or athleticism to project to be an All-Star, but I just can’t see him not being able to stay in the league.
29. PF Kosta Koufos, Ohio State Koufos can shoot the basketball very well for his size and has a solid basketball IQ, I’m just not quite sure how he is going to do in the NBA. He isn’t all that athletic nor is he a physically dominating big man. He is too skilled not to be drafted, but I’m just not sure he’ll be able contribute much at all until he gets more physical.
30. PF Kevin Love, UCLA Love just doesn’t do it for me. I don’t see it. He wouldn’t have even made the list, but Davon Jefferson has completely destroyed his stock by being out of shape and generally indifferent about it. But, back to Love, he is short, slow, and fat. People make way too much out of his passing, as I don’t think that is enough to put him into the top 10. How has he gotten everyone to believe he isn’t going to be the next in the long line of great college players that won’t translate well to the NBA? If he was a great shooter, I’d have a little more hope. To be honest, the main reason I put him at 30 was just to rant and rave about how crazy I think it is that he is going to be taken in the lottery. I mean, rumor has it Kevin McHale loves him as much as any player in the draft. Kevin McHale! Doesn’t that say it all right there when the worst GM in sports is raving about you? I won’t bash him anymore, but I just think it is insane to rank him so highly.
Not Making The Cut: Robin Lopez Davon Jefferson JJ Hickson Ryan Anderson
June 8, 2008
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