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Hidden Value By Ron Jumper The NFL Draft is always an interesting time because it is such an inexact science. It is hard to juggle athleticism, stats, game film, character issues, and everything else. That being said, the opportunity to find value later in the draft is there because of this. There are going to be guys that just slip through the cracks despite performing well in pretty much all the categories. They may not have run a 4.3 and played for USC, but they did run a solid 4.45 and competed in a BCS conference. Or maybe they played for a small school, but they dominated even in their non-conference games against the big guys. Then there is always a group of guys who have the talent, but played in the wrong college system so they weren’t able to showcase their abilities. For whatever reason, they failed to catch the scout’s eye and didn’t have a buzz about them going into the draft. None the less, here are some guys that I feel will be a great value despite not going in the first round: QB Erik Ainge, Tennessee This quarterback has played well the least 2 seasons to the tune of 50 touchdowns and only 19 interceptions. He is 6’5” 225 and has been a 4-year starter in the SEC. Arm strength isn’t an issue and he is an accurate passer (67% and 62% the last 2 seasons). Am I missing something? What is the problem? You have to like him better than Colt Brennan or Joe Flacco, both prospects whom scouts have rated higher than Ainge. If I need a QB, I’d have to strongly consider taking this guy in the 3rd round where he will likely be available. RB Rafael Little, Kentucky He is a playmaker, bottom line. Little does everything very well. He topped the 1,000-yard mark in rushing yards, caught 42 passes for 347 yards, and is an exceptional return man. He ran a 4.50 in the 40, which isn’t ideal, but how does Felix Jones get such a higher ranking when he only ran a 4.47? Is that .03 really that big a difference? I doubt it… WR Mario Urrutia, Louisville He probably didn’t make the best decision when he decided to forgo his senior season. However, he is 6’6” and 228 pounds, while also an exceptional athlete. He was injured for the bulk of his junior season, but was very good when healthy. I can’t figure out why scouts don’t see possession and redzone receiver written all over him. He ran a 4.61, it isn’t like he ran a 4.85, so that is pretty good all things considered. If he ran a 4.35 he would be Calvin Johnson, who was thought to be a one-of-a-kind athlete, so don’t punish him for not being a freak of nature. Scouts get way too caught up in straight speed sometimes, this guy has been productive and has played in an NFL-style passing game for 3 seasons. Big guys with his hands and athleticism just aren’t a dime-a-dozen, so I don’t see why there isn’t more buzz about him. WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt Bennett is another quality wide receiver that doesn’t seem to be generating enough buzz, in my opinion. He also left early, and might should have stayed in school, but he has been very productive. You look at his numbers and aren’t blown away, but keep in mind Vandy QBs Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams were much more comfortable scrambling than throwing the deep ball. This resulted in Bennett having to catch a lot of dinks and dunks, which makes it hard to have a high YPC. He was also the only option in the passing game, so defenses were focused on him. I have always felt he was a good wide receiver and his 4.48 reassured my belief that he would be a quality NFL wideout. TE Martin Rucker, Missouri This is a very talented tight end. He is 6-6 and 245 pounds, so he has prototypical size. He ran a 4.70 at the combine, so he has speed. He led Missouri in catches with 84 and tallied 834 receiving yards with 8 scores, so he was productive. Am I missing something? I get that some scouts are concerned at how well he will be able to block since he played in a spread at Missouri but, even so, I think the way NFL offenses have become so specialized that he will still be able to productive if you used him in the right package and situation. Teams have pass-catching tight ends and blocking tight ends, just like running backs are power backs or speed backs and receivers are possession or deep threats. This is where the inexact science comes in, how is a specialized guy like Rucker punished but other players aren’t? I just don’t get it… DE Wallace Gilberry, Alabama Gilberry will be a very solid defensive end in the NFL. Maybe not as a rookie, but he will be a starter before it is all said and done. So a 270 pound defensive end who racked up 10 sacks in the SEC as a senior isn’t grabbing the scouts attention? He ran a 4.93, which isn’t ideal, but it should be taken into account that it is more important how much of a motor he has and how well he moves laterally. Look at Jared Allen and Patrick Kerney (ranked 1st and 2nd in sacks for 2007), if you think those guys could run a 4.6 right now you are outside of your mind. Besides, the SEC is famous for producing quality defensive players like this. Why mess with tradition? (It makes sense, usually 30-40% of the top 100 high school players sign with SEC schools and then, shockingly, the SEC has had more players drafted in the first round than any other conference.) DT Frank Okam, Texas Massive, athletic, proven, productive. These all describe Okam very well. This guy is 6’4.5” and 347 pounds, and he still ran a 5.29! To put that in perspective, Sedrick Ellis is supposed to be a quick undersized DT and only ran a 5.23. After Dorsey, who is a freak of nature, I’d have to give Okam a hard look. He played for Texas and was a 5-star recruit out of Dallas in high school. He obviously is a talented prospect, so how is he on the border of even being one of the top 10 players at his position? He tallied 5 sacks as a senior, but that ain’t too bad for a DT. I just can’t see how this guy doesn’t at least go in the second round. OLB Tavarres Gooden, Miami (FL) With all the fuss about Kenny Phillips and Calais Campbell during the season, I feel like Gooden will be the best of the bunch from Miami. He ran a 4.65 and was the most consistent player on the Hurricanes roster. I followed Campbell and Phillips closely, but it kept being Gooden that would grab my eye. Most have him as a top-5 OLB, but I see him more as one of the top-3 with Keith Rivers and Xavier Adibi. OLB Robert James, Arizona State Yes, he is undersized. Unlike the others, I’m going more on gut instinct with this guy. I see a playmaker in him and think he could be a very good weak-side linebacker in time. He did a good job in coverage also, with 4 interceptions. He’ll start off playing mostly special teams, but could potentially move to strong safety down the road as well. I just have a hunch, I can’t help it okay… MLB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee I know I’m making myself look very biased, but facts are facts. The SEC produces many great defensive players every single year. If you are one of the best defensive players in the SEC, then performing well in the NFL is logical. Enter Jerod Mayo, the best middle linebacker in the SEC. Mayo ran a 4.54 and racked up 140 tackles for Tennessee. Well, I don’t know about you, but I’m sold. CB Tracy Porter, Indiana Porter defines the meaning of this article in terms of “Hidden Value” because he offers a variety of skills that looking at numbers and his combine times can’t explain. Porter was productive at Indiana with 6 interceptions. He also ran a sub 4.4 at 4.37. Most importantly, he is a stud on special teams both as a gunner and as a return man. So, summing up, he was productive, has ideal athleticism, and offers ability on special teams. CB Dwight Lowery, San Jose State This is the combine at its worst right here. Lowery ran a 4.59 and all of a sudden his stock has plummeted. Did we forget his 13 interceptions over the last 2 seasons? Did we forget his 2-interception performance in the East-West Shrine Game? This guy can play and it is a shame that he isn’t getting a fair shake in proving it, though I feel he has time and again. He would be ideal in a Cover 2 scheme and, as I said last time, I think he will be Ronde 2.0 by the end of his career. SS Craig Steltz, LSU I know you have probably heard this before, but I see a lot of John Lynch in Steltz. I also, surprise, like how productive he was in the SEC. LSU was one of the most talented teams in the country and had a nasty defense. Steltz had 6 interceptions and 101 tackles on the year. I like his size (6’1.5” and 213) and speed (4.6) for the strong safety position. I think he also knows the game well and could be a solid player in the right system. He doesn’t excel in man coverage, as most strong safeties don’t, but is good playing over the top and in run support. March 3, 2008 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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