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2008 Hoops Top Prospects: Getting Started
By Ron Jumper
With football scouting really starting to heat up, I thought I would squeeze in a little analysis on the hardwood while I’m at it. Hoops scouting is going to be done differently than football though, since there are so many more schools of all different kinds with mid-majors and what have you. I feel it is better to evaluate players by conference, team, or position, depending on who catches my eye on a given week. Basketball doesn’t work like football, in that we won’t find out much about players on a game-to-game basis. In football, players move up and down the board depending how that week’s game went and whom they matched up with. While basketball can also present intriguing individual matchups, scouts put more weight on what intangibles the prospect can bring to the table and how his game will translate to the NBA down the road. Also, basketball scouting is based so much on potential that it isn’t always important that the prospect dominates right now, as it is more important he has a position at the next level and can be effective against NBA competition.
For starters, I thought I would discuss my current top 3 prospects in the nation. To no surprise, they are all freshman. That is just simply going to be the case from now on I’m afraid, as the one-and-done rule just simply calls for it. I think this is great for the NBA, but not as much for college.
Wait isn’t that backwards, Ron?
Your first thought is that it is great that we get to see guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant play in college for a season. While that is true, but it isn’t like that every year. Take this year, for example, only die-hard hoops fans care about watching Michael Beasley at Kansas State or Donte Green at Syracuse. Do you think a middle-aged, casual sports fan is really going to tune in to Kansas State-Oklahoma to watch Beasley take on OU freshman standout Blake Griffin? I’m doubting he knows who either guy even is. While scouts and hoops fanatics get excited, pops isn’t going to crack open a cold one and say “hey great, we got a matchup of lottery prospects on ESPNU tonight honey.” I could be wrong, but I doubt it…
2008 Top Prospects:
1. Michael Beasley, Kansas State (6’9”, 235): I wasn’t sold at first on this kid. I felt like his skill level was way behind and he depended way too much on pure athleticism. As I’ve watched him more, I’ve began to see more of an all-around game. I love the fact he shoots 73% from the free throw line, as well as his solid 36% from downtown. What I like best is that, even though he can make jumpshots, he is very active around the rim and uses his size very well. My only question is what position does he play at the next level? Is he a 3 or 4? I don’t think he is quite quick enough laterally for the small forward position, but would be an undersized power forward. He would be best suited for an offense that used him like Al Harrington or Rashard Lewis for the Warriors and Magic.
2. Deandre Jordan, Texas A&M (7’0”, 240): Here is where you start to see the emphasis on potential, as Jordan has such a wonderful arsenal under development. However, he has struggled now that conference play has began. He dominated the smaller schools, but hasn’t showed up against bigger, more physical opposition. At 7’0” 240, he has the body of Dwight Howard at that age and similar athleticism. His upside is unlimited but, if he doesn’t show more production, he might be best served to stay for his sophomore campaign. It is something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
3. Donte Green, Syracuse (6’11”, 225) Once again, a guy that has amazing potential but hasn’t quite put it all together. I love his upside though, as it is off the charts. He is 6’11” 225 and has NBA-range on his jumpshot. He averages 18.4 points and 7.8 rebounds. Sounds amazing, right? Well here is the thing, he doesn’t use his size and athleticism nearly enough. He is the opposite of Beasley, in that he settles for jumpshots. Of his 283 field goal attempts, Green has taken 138 3-pointers. I don’t know about you, but that just doesn’t seem to add up when you are as big and athletic as he is. He needs more seasoning to develop a better sense of shot selection and to make better use of his mid-range game. If he can put it all together, he could be one of the most unique talents the league has ever seen. I have my fingers crossed…
Mid-Major Prospects:
Now, scouts actually have to watch every team play and keep track of the little guys as well. The game of college basketball is changing. You can’t just watch the big guys and see the nation’s best talent anymore. There is unique talent everywhere, you just have to find it. Some guys believe Davidson’s Stephen Curry is going to be a big time player, I don’t. He is only 6’0” and isn’t going to be able to play point guard in the NBA, as he is a scorer (only 2.7 assists). He has no role in the NBA, despite truly being a talented basketball player. Now, here are some guys I think could be effective at the next level (in no particular order):
PF Javale McGee, Nevada (7’0” 240): This guy is an NBA-level athlete, though a little raw. He is a great shot-blocker, as he averages 3.2 blocks per ballgame. He very well could end up in the lottery if he continues to impress scouts and develop. If his jersey said UNC or Kansas instead of Nevada, people would be comparing him to Brandon Wright. However, because he plays for Nevada, he gets no love.
G Folarin Campbell, George Mason (6’4”, 205): Not even on the scouts radar screen for the most part, but I love his game. Mostly, I love his high basketball IQ. He isn’t the biggest or the fastest, but he knows the game inside and out. He also can do a little bit of everything on the floor: shoot, dribble, pass, defend, and, most importantly, lead. He has a great NBA body, though he is a couple inches shorter than a typical 2-guard in the NBA. Mark my words, he’ll make an NBA roster some day.
C Shawn King, Oral Roberts (6’10”, 220): Won’t ever be a scorer at the next level, but does have the size and athleticism to be a good defender. His numbers aren’t staggering, but the only one that really matters is the 2.3 blocks. That will be his bread-and-butter, though he might spend some time in the D-League first. He has held his own against bigger schools such as Arkansas, Texas, and Texas A&M this season and many more “major” schools over his career. I see upside in him and hope some NBA team will feel the same way.
PF Jason Thompson, Rider (6’11”, 245): The best player in the nation that you’ve never heard of, without question. Thompson has great size and strength, but don’t think this guy is just a shot-blocker. He has great all-around ability and has a surprising skill set. His numbers are wonderful, as he averages 19.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and a surprising 2.9 assists (some starting guards don’t average that many assists). Some scouts have him going in the top 20, I’m still wanting to evaluate him a little bit more but the potential is certainly there. I encourage everyone to watch on February 2nd, as Rider will visit Siena and the game will be broadcasted live on ESPN2 at 2 PM.
PG Mike Green, Butler (6’1”, 185): One of the best pure point guards in the nation and has proven that he can perform on any level against anyone. The numbers are phenomenal: 15.1 points, 6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Green has the quickness and ball-handling ability to handle playing point guard at the NBA level. His basketball IQ should be of no concern, as Butler is one of the most efficient and well-coached college basketball teams in the country. When looking around the league at winning teams like the Suns, Hornets, Jazz, and Pistons, one would think scouts might put a higher premium on great point guard play. Just a thought…
SG Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky (6’5”, 200): This senior has had a great career and is finishing it off well. However, with the way South Alabama is playing, he probably won’t have the chance to showcase his abilities in the NCAA Tournament again. At 6’5”, he can really score the basketball whether it be from long-range or as a slasher. Defensively, he plays the passing lanes well and averages 1.9 steals a game. He has the opportunity to be a first-round pick if he continues to play so well.
C Russell Hicks, Florida International (7’0”, 240): This guy can play, though I doubt anyone believes me. Hicks is 7’0” and can get off the floor. He has a complete arsenal offensively, and he blocks 2.1 shots per game. He isn’t high on the scouts radar, as DraftExpress.com has Hicks as only the 79th ranked junior in the country. Hopefully, he will stay his senior season and climb up the rankings. If not, then he can show off his skills in the D-League for a year or two then move up. Either way, I feel this guy could be in the NBA some day if he worked at it.
January 30, 2008
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