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Prospects On Center Stage NBA Preview 2008/09: Final Call
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2008 Top Prospects: Season Evaluations By Ron Jumper After taking in bowl season, there have been a few shakeups to the Top Prospects List that you may not have seen coming. Could there be a new guy at the top of the list? Could there be some guys making there way on to the final list after not cracking the Top 15 all season long? After this season, anything is possible so you'll just have to read and see. (There will be Mock Drafts and more as we gather information on who is coming out and evaluate what takes place in All-Star games and combines, etc. Stay tuned.) The Top 15: 1. DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU McFadden has been the man all season long, but Dorsey has won me over in this final evaluation. Dorsey is the next Warren Sapp, but bigger and nastier. Dorsey creates pressure to the quarterback in ways that elite defensive ends desire to but from the defensive tackle position. Dorsey wreaks havoc in the running game and passing game to the tune of 11.5 TFL (tackles for loss) and 6 sacks on the season. That is a college career for most defensive tackles, even good ones. Besides, the numbers aren't how to really evaluate him because he creates so much havoc that he gets constant double teams and the running backs have to keep any eye on him in pass protection. After watching him torture Ohio State inside and spend more than his fair share of time in the Buckeyes' backfield, I realized this is a special player that just simply can't be passed up if you have the chance to draft him. I normally like teams to draft according to the best combination of need and value, but this guy has the ability to be the building block on any defense. 2. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas Dorsey moved to the top spot because of his dominant play, but also because of some red flags I'm starting to see with D-MAC. I've always known he has a small lower body and, while it hadn't bothered me before, I start to look at similar NFL backs like Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson. Both backs are taller backs with a great combination of size and speed. However, they both have great lower body strength and can move side-to-side in traffic with little trouble. I haven't seen that same ability from McFadden, though it gets overshadowed because of his thundering stiff-arm and willingness to take on contact. McFadden is such a superior athlete and he has had such a great offensive line, that I don't believe he has learned the little things that running backs need to be effective in the NFL. Things like seeing the cutback lane and being patient to set up down-field blockers may take some time for him. More importantly though, he suffers from C.T.S. What is C.T.S., you're wondering? Well, it is Crazy Thug Syndrome. McFadden has a severe case and it may cost him down the line. I worry about him being able to keep his head on straight over the next decade, as he has struggled with that just at the college level. He nearly wasn't able to play in the Cotton Bowl because word got out that he had already hired Mike Conley, Sr. as his agent. It wasn't hard to figure out when he was seen driving around in a brand new Escalade. Nevermind he isn't even supposed to be talking with agents, let alone taking $60,000 gifts. McFadden was able to dodge the whole thing, but it was more because bad investigating by the NCAA and Conley finding some loopholes in the system than anything else. Why else would Conley be at the Hyatt hotel in Dallas and attending the Cotton Bowl? Seems fishy, but it goes even farther with McFadden. I go back to when he got suspended from the Intramural Basketball League at the University of Arkansas for threatening to beat up a ref last year (which I still feel he would have if his teammates hadn't held him back). It all stemmed from his dislike to the technical he received for hanging on the rim. Nevermind that he did a full chin-up and slapped the backboard before coming back down to the floor. I just can't help but feel he is destined to work his way out of the league because of his inability to behave. Remember, Roger Goodell is trying to clean up the image of the league and these incidents are being tolerated less and less. Just don't say I didn't warn you... 3. QB Matt Ryan, Boston College After moving quarterbacks around all year long, I think Ryan is the best one in this class. He has everything you want in a quarterback: size, arm strength, pocket prescence, and great mechanics. The thing I love most about him is that you don't have to worry about whether he is a product of a system or not, as Coach Jagodzinski runs a balanced pro-style offense. I see him being able to contribute earlier than most rookie quarterbacks, as he is comfortable under center and in the shotgun. It sounds odd, but many system QBs are not comfortable throwing from under center. It takes time for them to get used to taking 3, 5, or 7 step drops. Another thing about Ryan that people forget is that he didn't have the same athletes to work with that some of these other quarterbacks had. Boston College is a good football team, but no one would call them athletic or fast. None of Ryan's skill position players will even sniff the NFL, making it a little harder to make plays in the passing game for the Eagles. 4. DE Chris Long, Virginia I love what Long brings to the table, as he is a great athletic specimen that can be dominant as a run-stopper or pass-rusher. I criticized Long for not being as productive as he needed to be in his first 3 years at Virginia, but he has finally become a consistent force to be reckoned with. He finished with 14 sacks on the season, good for 3rd in the nation. At 6'4" 280, he has great size and strength to be effective in a 3-4 scheme as well, which makes him more appealing since many teams have began implementing the 3-4 scheme instead of the traditional 4-3. While many people knock him for being Howie Long's son, I think it is a huge advantage. Howie will be able to show him the ropes along the way and, maybe, speed up his development so he can be a contributor early in his career. I think it makes an already safe choice like Chris even safer. 5. RB Jonathon Stewart, Oregon Most scouts don't have him this high, but I think he could be a Pro Bowl running back if he lands on the right team. I love his breakaway speed and quickness, but he is also a strong runner at 230 pounds. He is also very versatile, as he also has receiving skills and the ability to return kicks. The Ducks are known for having a great passing game and spreading the ball all over the place but, if you watched Stewart against South Florida, you know this guy is a special player. South Florida has a fast defense but he consistently blew by defenders and picked up big chunks of yardage. He rushed for 253 yards on only 23 carries, how ridiculous is that? At the beggining of the year, scouts loved Steve Slaton but he was knocked around by that same South Florida defense. Stewart, on the other hand, made them look silly. Making it even more impressive was that he did it without starting QB Dennis Dixon playing and the defense focusing on him. 6. LB Dan Connor, Penn State Connor is just simply a safe, can't-miss linebacker prospect. He has size (6'3" 235) and tradition (Penn State) working in his favor, but I also look at how he performed in big games. Against Ohio State, Connor racked up 18 tackles and his only interception of the season. I don't think he has the speed and explosiveness to be the next Shawne Merriman, but you can count on him being a starter for the next 10 years. 7. QB Brian Brohm, Louisville I am still very high on Brohm, though some have started to not be. I think he still has great mechanics and a high football IQ. He played in a passer-friendly system, but I don't think he is in any way a "system" quarterback. Louisville's offense still took snaps under center and threw the ball all over the field, it wasn't just dinks and dunks out of the shotgun. Brohm was asked to make all the throws in order to run the Cardinals offense, which he did to the tune of 35 points/game. If anything, I think it could help Brohm down the road that the Cardinals had a rough season. He had multiple chances to practice the 2-minute drill and had to carry the team on his shoulders for most of the season. I also look at the weapons he had at Louisville, and he had two receivers who will be NFL receivers in Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia. He already has a feel for the timing and ball placement that goes with throwing to NFL-level wideouts. 8. QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky Obviously, I still love Woodson but I'm just not as convinced as I used to be that he is going to be a great NFL quarterback. He finished the regular season as the top quarterback on my list and 3rd overall. Now, he is the 3rd quarterback and 8th overall. Why the drop? I started looking at his mechanics and footwork more closely and realized he has some work to do. His throwing motion makes his release a beat slow, he'll need to clean up his technique. He also has some bad habits, like not stepping into a throw. Woodson has a bad habit of throwing off his back foot, causing him to not have the zip on his throws that some of the other quarterbacks in this class can put on the ball. Whatever team takes Woodson will have to be patient, as he is a talented but raw prospect. Throwing him into the fire too soon could be damaging. If Woodson has the chance to sharpen his mechanics and footwork for a season or two, he could develop into a very nice NFL quarterback. 9. LB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State I discussed how safe a bet Connor was, and I feel similarly about this guy. He might not be quite as safe a choice, but his ability to play in pass coverage gives GMs a tough decison to make when it comes to deciding which linebacker to take. I really like that Laurinaitis stepped up big in the BCS Title Game against LSU, as he posted 18 tackles (12 solo). He showed he had the quickness to stay with an SEC offense, despite playing for a Big Ten school. 10. CB Antoine Cason, Arizona Cason is the most consistent cover-corner in all of college football. He has played at a high level and maintained that high level over his career. He finished the season with 5 interceptions and returned 2 of those back for touchdowns. Cason is 6'0" 185, which isn't huge, but is more than enough size to play corner in the NFL. Another great intangible for Cason is his ability in the return game, as he was an electric punt returner. He averaged over 10 yards a return and took 2 back to the house for touchdowns. I doubt he will be the first defensive back off the board come draft day, but I think he will be the best of the bunch down the road. I loved the way he stepped up big in the Oregon game (which was a nationally televised Thursday Night game), returning both a punt and an interception to the house for scores. 11. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas This is another guy that most scouts don't have this high, but I certainly do. As I watched virtually every Razorback game this season, I started to realize something. Some feel Jones benefits from having McFadden in front of him and that the reason his stats are so good is from the defense focusing on D-MAC. While obviously it helps Jones to have a guy like McFadden drawing all the attention, it also really helps McFadden to have a guy like Jones that can stretch the field at any given time. In the game against Mississippi State that Felix Jones didn't play, McFadden struggled to find much room and had only 88 yards on 28 carries. It wasn't like the Bulldogs were dominant that day, as QB Casey Dick had a career day and the Hogs put up 45 points. So why didn't McFadden have a career day? I think Jones abscence hurt substantially. My point is that both are dangerous and both have a huge impact on the other's success. McFadden would still be a top-5 prospect either way, but I don't think he would have had the success he has had at the college level without Felix Jones. As far as how Jones will perform in the NFL, I think he has the same upside as Reggie Bush. Let that sink in. I think he will have a similar career to Reggie Bush if he lands in the right system. Neither Bush nor Jones will be a guy that has much success carrying 25-30 times between the tackles and both possess the ability to return kicks and catch the ball out of the backfield. Also, if you watched Arkansas closely, Jones spent more time lining up on the perimeter and in the slot than he did dotting the eye or behind the quarterback. With the way offensive coordinators like to move playmaker around and use different formations, having a guy like Jones is so valuable because of the versatility he offers. 12. DE Calais Campbell, Miami If anybody needs a great combine, I believe it is this guy right here. Campbell did not have the kind of year he wanted (granted, no one on the 'Canes did either) so he needs to show his athleticism is as good as advertised. He only had 6.5 sacks, with only 1 in his last 4 games. The way he finished the season probably had a lot to do with his discontent that the team was playing so poorly. None the less, I have questioned whether he has that great motor that defensive lineman need and I'm bringing it up again. However, at 6'8" 280, if he shows the athleticism at the combine that we all think he has then someone will take him because of the crazy upside. 13. DT Sedrick Ellis, USC I really like what Ellis has done this season, and that was remain healthy all season long. Ellis has had trouble in the past with injuries and has already had knee surgery, making some scouts hesitant to get too high on him. However, after staying healthy for an entire season, I think it is time to focus on his good qualities. Ellis had 8.5 sacks from the defensive tackle position, a very productive season for DT. He isn't huge (only 6'1" 300) so he won't be drafted by any teams that run a 3-4 scheme. However, I see any of the teams that run the Tampa 2 taking a serious look at him. 14. CB Aqib Talib, Kansas Playmaker. One word says it all with this guy. Talib is a sensational corner, plus he plays offense and returns kicks. He finished the season with 5 interceptions and returned 2 for touchdowns, including a big one in the Orange Bowl. If Talib doesn't make that play, the Hokies wouldn't have pressed on offense as much and might not have made so many mistakes because the Jayhawk offense struggled to drive the length of the field against that tough Hokie defense all night long. The difference in that game was Talib and the Jayhawk defense making big plays when they needed them and either scoring itself or putting the offense in great scoring position. Talib has great size at 6'2" and 205 pounds, making him an ideal corner in the NFL. He has been a great performer throughout his career and will be missed dearly at Kansas if he decides to leave early. In my eyes, he is similar to Devin Hester in that he is used on offense for gimmick plays, is an elite corner, and is dangerous in the return game. Hester is better in the return game, but Talib is a better corner. 15. WR James Hardy, Indiana I don't care that he plays at Indiana or in the Big Ten, Hardy is a phenomenal athlete and is highly productive. The guy is 6'7" 220 and runs like a gazel. He was by far the steadiest receiver this season, as he finished with 1125 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had a receiving touchdown in 11 of 13 games, that is unheard of for any receiver not named Randy Moss. I am expecting his stock to skyrocket once he works out at the combine, due to teams seeing what a great athlete he is despite being so tall. I know a lot of people were expecting to see Desean Jackson or Limas Sweed on this list, however I just am not sold on them. Five years from now, when Hardy is a household name, remember I told you so. Offensive Linemen: We told you at the begginning of the season that we would give the big uglies some love at the end of the season, as it is just too hard to really get a feel week to week. Here are the guys up front that we love: Tackle: Jake Long, Michigan Sam Baker, USC Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh Ryan Clady, Boise State Gosder Cherilus, Boston College Guard: Robert Felton, Arkansas Roy Schuening, Oregon State Eric Young, Tennessee Center: Steve Justice, Wake Forest Kory Lichtensteiger, Bowling Green Cody Wallace, Texas A&M January 11, 2008 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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