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The Anatomy Of An Upset By Ron Jumper Upsets are a staple of college basketball. Without upsets, it wouldn’t be March Madness but rather March Mildness. However, why do these upsets happen? Is it luck? Is it a letdown by the favorite? Is it perfect execution by the underdog? There is a lot that has to go into a game for an upset to happen. For this article, I decided to examine 2 games from Friday’s slate so that I could show what happens when an upset happens and when it falls short. The first game is Wofford vs. Arkansas, while the second is UNC-Greensboro vs. Georgia Tech. Neither small school has much to brag about nor is expected to make much noise, while neither favorite is considered a heavyweight by any stretch of the imagination. Before I address those games specifically, I am going to discuss the basic framework of an upset bid. With every upset bid, there are several critical areas to address from a coaching standpoint. Coaches have to have their players prepared and have specific goals to keep in mind throughout the game. Here are some examples: Getting Out Of The Blocks Strong: Every coach preaches this, but none more so than road underdogs. The first 4 minutes of a half can do a world of good to a team’s confidence but, at the same time, crush it if they get off to a rocky start. Another major factor in play here is not letting the crowd get roaring early on, as it can be tough for small schools to handle the noise of a hostile environment. Weathering The Storm: Every home team is going to make a run at some point and, as a coach, it is your job to respond and “weather the storm.” When the home team goes on an 8-0 run that is punctuated by a thundering dunk that gets the crowd going crazy, it is critical to respond. It doesn’t take much to let the game slip away. Dictating The Tempo: Typically, it is going to be nearly impossible to beat the home favorite at it’s own game. You have to make them play your game. If you run and gun, speed the game up. If you play a slow-paced game, walk the ball up the floor and slow the game down. Keeping teams out of their comfort zone can do wonders for when you are trying to stop them defensively. Countering The Home Team’s Aggressiveness: Usually, the home favorite tries to get up and pressure what they perceive as an inferior opponent, as well as take more gambles in the passing lanes. It is important to make them pay by getting into the bonus early in the half and living at the foul line. When teams are too aggressive, make sure the floor is spread and use backdoor cuts to make them play you honest. If nothing else, it makes your opponent respect you. Avoiding Foul Trouble: The biggest disadvantage for small schools is depth. They usually have 2 or 3 guys that can compete with the big dogs, but the second unit is just simply outmatched most of the time. Also, most good small schools have one guy that makes them go. It can be as a guard or an inside guy, but he is the team’s anchor. Losing him could spell doom in a hurry. Now let’s take a look at what happened Friday night: Wofford vs. Arkansas The game got off to a great start for Wofford, as they were up 6-0 through the first 4 minutes. More importantly, they were handling the pressure from Arkansas. The Hogs wanted to get the pace of the game up and put a lot of pressure on the opposition. However, Wofford point guard Drew Gibson handled the pressure without any trouble. It didn’t matter if it was a man or zone press, he avoided making costly mistakes that would lead to easy baskets for Arkansas. Another key factor was foul trouble, Wofford used Arkansas’ aggressiveness against them. Wofford was shooting in the bonus at the 15:29 mark of the first half! As many games as I have seen, that is probably the earliest I can recall a team getting into the bonus. So far, so good for Wofford. Wofford didn’t trail until the 2:24 mark of the first half, as Arkansas took the lead 23-21. However, Wofford’s top player Drew Gibson had just picked up his second foul. To make matters worse, their second best player Junior Salters picked up his 3rd foul with only 38 seconds left in the first half. The Hogs would go into halftime clinging to a 30-26 lead. Upset bid still possible, right? The second half started similar to the first half, as neither team scored much. However, Wofford was dealt a big blow at the 17:16 mark when point guard Drew Gibson picked up his 4th foul. Not even 2 minutes later, Junior Salters picked up his 4th foul. Wofford was in trouble, prompting Gibson to come back in despite the heavy foul trouble. Wofford would climb back to within 5 at 37-32 with 13:41 remaining. However, that was as close as it would get. They would go over 4 minutes without scoring, including missing 5 straight free throws, and trailed 45-32. The final score would end up being 67-45 and the Hogs won going away. The box score would make you believe it was an easy win for the home team, but that was simply not the case. Wofford suffered both a dry spell and heavy foul trouble in the second half, leading to them not being able to keep up in the second half. UNC-Greensboro vs. Georgia Tech The Yellow Jackets got off to a good start through the first 4 minutes, as they got out to a 9-4 lead. However, the rest of the first half went back and forth. In fact, there were 16 lead changes in the first half alone! Georgia Tech closed out the half on a 6-0 run and seemed to seize the momentum, as they took a 43-39 lead into the break. Sound familiar? Wofford was trailing by the same margin at the half against Arkansas. Would UNC-Greensboro suffer the same fate or would they respond? UNC-Greensboro would storm out the gate and outscore the Yellow Jackets 9-2 through the first 4 minutes to take a 48-45 lead. They couldn’t have asked for a better start. This is the pivotal part of the game, as you have to keep the pressure on. Once you take that lead, the home team gets closer and closer to hitting the panic button. Quick shots and poor execution start to happen due to the frightening notion that they might actually lose at home to an inferior opponent. This was certainly the case in this game, as UNC-Greensboro went on an 11-0 run that saw Georgia Tech commit 4 turnovers during that stretch in the second half. UNC-Greensboro wouldn’t let Georgia Tech get any closer than 7 the rest of the way, as they pulled off a big upset win over an ACC club. So, in conclusion, the line between taking care of business and being upset is smaller than people realize. There are simple keys to staying in the game and giving yourself a chance to win. I mean, hey, UNC-Greensboro did it! Did you hear any buzz about them as a mid-major sleeper this season? I sure didn’t… (but I did pick UNC-Greensboro at +17 in the Premium Picks section, which is besides the point) They just simply stayed out of foul trouble, weathered the storm, and kept the pressure on the home team to not make mistakes. Upsets can happy at any time, expect to see an abundance of them this season. And, as always, I’ll be there to say I told you so. November 11, 2007 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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