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NBA Preview 2007/08: Eastern Conference
By Ron Jumper
As a conference, the East became much more competitive in terms of teams capable of making the playoffs. Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, and New York could easily be in the mix with the teams that made the Eastern Conference playoffs last season. That being said, the top teams didn’t change much as far as adding fire power to compete with the big dogs out West. The power is still in the West, but that doesn't mean the East isn't on the rise.
Southeast Division:
This suddenly became the deepest division in the NBA, as all 5 teams have a legit shot at making the post-season. With Jason Richardson and Rashard Lewis giving this division two more potential All-Star candidates, you can’t overlook the fire power the Hawks added via the draft with Al Horford and Acie Law IV.
1. Washington Wizards: With the most firepower in the division, the Wizards look to be the class of this division. While most people are enamored with the Heat and Magic, I’m not buying it. I look for Gilbert Arenas to continue to put up nice numbers and for Caron Butler to continue establishing himself as an All-Star player. Don’t forget about Antawn Jamison, either. I like the potential Nick Young and Andray Blatche have to add another big scorer as well to the lineup.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Yes, the Charlotte Bobcats will finish ahead of both the Magic and the Heat. How? Well, here goes…
The addition of Jason Richardson does a lot of things: gives them a leader, go-to guy in the clutch, and a 20 ppg guy. Also, with both Gerald Wallace and Jason Richardson on the perimeter and Emeka Okafor inside, the Bobcats are going to be a phenomenal defensive team. Another key factor is Adam Morrison because he should flourish in a smaller role off the bench, as opposed to having to create his own shot. While no one believes me that the Bobcats will make the playoffs, none of you guys believed me last year when I told you the Warriors would either.
3. Orlando Magic: While everyone seems to be so excited about adding Rashard Lewis, I’m not on the bandwagon. Don’t forget they lost Grant Hill and Darko. Grant Hill is an intangible guy and does so much that goes unnoticed. Lewis is just more of a scorer and doesn’t bring the same winning intangibles to the floor. I expect the Magic to be in the running, thanks to the emergence of Dwight Howard as one of the best big men in the game this season. However, expect the lack of depth inside and poor outside shooting to keep this team from getting home court in the playoffs.
4. Miami Heat: I think the Heat are going to have a rough season, most of which was brought on by their horrid off-season. They lost Jason Kapono, James Posey, and Eddie Jones to free agency. While that isn’t drastic, they only added Smush Parker, Anfernee Hardaway, and Dequan Cook to compensate. On paper, I like their roster but with the health of Wade, O’Neal, Mourning, and Hardaway a big concern, I see it being difficult for them to compete this season. They simply don’t have depth at point guard or the outside shooting needed to spread the floor so Shaq can go to work. Expect them to have some big wins, but to barely miss the postseason when all is said and done.
5. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks are still the Hawks, while people seem to have forgotten this. Just because they drafted a point guard, it doesn’t mean their problems are resolved. Do you really see Acie Law, IV becoming an impact player right off the bat? I sure don’t. In my opinion, it is more about whether Speedy Claxton can get it going and Law can simply give quality backup minutes. They still don’t have much of a center, as Zaza Pachulia is the guy. If they decide to play Horford at the center position, that could help. However, as is the case with Law, that is a lot to expect out of a rookie. The Hawks had a great draft but that is all it was, a great draft. That doesn’t mean they will improve 20 games and go to the playoffs. This is a team that still doesn’t have any kind of home-court advantage, consistent point guard play, or a shot blocker inside. With the Celtics, Bobcats, and Knicks also improving over the off-season, I don’t see the Hawks making the leap to the postseason in the East.
Central Division
The Central Division should once again be the best division in the Eastern Conference, as arguably the best 3 teams reside in this division. With Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit all considered elite teams in the East, it will be an entertaining battle to see who can pull out this division.
1. Detroit Pistons: I love the moves the Pistons made to their roster via free agency and the draft. I think Rodney Stuckey and Aaron Afflalo fit their system very well and will add some fire power to that second unit. Also, I think Jarvis Hayes will have a great year off the bench for the Pistons. In fact, I predict he could even make a run at the 6th man of the year award. Not to go unnoticed is the addition of the young guy Amir Johnson. Johnson played in the D-League last season and has continued to develop after jumping straight from high school. This has always been a great defensive team, but I think the second unit’s ability to score will provide the spark they need to get over the hump in the East. More on this later…
2. Chicago Bulls: As was the case last season, this is a team built for the regular season. They have depth, shoot the ball well, and play up-tempo. However, I still think they will struggle in the postseason because they lack a big man that is comfortable scoring with his back to the basket. I like the addition of Noah because he fits their motion offense so well and plays with such intensity. However, Noah doesn’t provide you with a lot of back-to-the-basket moves in his arsenal. Expect them to look great in the regular season but, once again, fall short in the postseason.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs will fall off this season, as they had a rough off-season. Not only did they not add much of importance, but they have had trouble keeping the pieces they had intact. I think it is important to have a happy Varejao and Pavlovic under contract this season. Otherwise, they lose some of the toughness and athleticism they had last season. I think Lebron will still be Lebron and Daniel Gibson will emerge as the guy at point guard, but it won’t be enough to win the Central Division this season.
4. Indiana Pacers: This is a team that could end up looking like a whole new team by the trade deadline in February. They could move Jermaine O’Neal to a contender for young players and draft picks. There is also the possibility of them moving Jamaal Tinsley in an attempt to clean out some of the garbage that has given them a black eye as of late. I’m curious to see how it will all play out this season in Indy. That being said, don’t expect any of the moves to lead to any immediate improvements.
5. Milwaukee Bucks: I just don’t like the way the Bucks are building their team. How many big, soft, slow guys can you build your franchise around? With the future being built around Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut, and now Yi Jianlian; they have become the softest and slowest team in the league at the same time. I like Michael Redd, but that is the only positive thing I can say. I thought it was good they kept Mo Williams, but they certainly overpaid for his services. Expect them to be a decent team that could maybe win 35 games if they can stay healthy, something they’ve struggled with recently.
Atlantic Division:
While all the talk is going to be about the Celtics, that just doesn’t do justice to what the other teams are doing in this division. I think the Nets, Knicks, and Raptors will all be good teams this season. Expect a nice battle for first place in this division. As for the long term, Philly has done a solid job adding young talent to their roster.
1. Boston Celtics: I have the Celtics here, but I don’t think they will run away with the division by any means. I think everyone needs to remember that there is going to be an adjustment period, while all the new pieces get used to one another. Also, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have had health issues so don’t be shocked if neither of them play 70 games this season. While KG has yet to have a major injury yet, he is over 30. All in all, I see the “Big Three” only playing together maybe 50-55 games this season. Depending on how long it takes this team to develop chemistry with one another, they could let this division slip away from them. I’d estimate it takes them 20 games to hit their stride, then expect another 20-30 games that either Allen or Pierce miss due to injury, which leads me to believe they will win 45-50 games. For those of you that think they’ll win 60 games, forget about it.
2. Toronto Raptors: When I look at their roster, I can’t help but see that they have one of the more unique lineups in the league. They have an interesting mix of international players and have a lot of great shooters, not to mention a true point guard in T.J. Ford. The Raptors play a different style in comparison to the rest of the league, they rely on outside shooting and doing the little things. This isn’t a team that is going to out run you or physically dominate you. They are fun to watch in the mind of basketball purists because they space the floor, pass the ball well, and knock down open shots. Granted, they do have Chris Bosh and he can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. Looking at their off-season, they really just stood pat. They let Morris Peterson go and added Jason Kapono, who will do virtually do the same thing in this system despite not having the same tools as Peterson. If Bargnani continues to develop and Ford can stay healthy, Bosh could certainly lead this team to another division crown. Don’t sleep on this Raptors team, I’m warning you.
3. New Jersey Nets: While I love the trio of Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson; the rest of their roster has yet to win me over. I still don’t think they have the big man to give them balance on offense, nor do they have enough perimeter shooting. The biggest issue I see is that the big men that will play a lot of minutes, like Jamal Magloire or Jason Collins, can’t run the floor. If the Nets aren’t able to run the floor, that drastically cuts down on what Jason Kidd and company are able to do on offense. We all know that when the Nets are at their best is when Kidd is getting out on the break and finding open people. That is certainly when young guys like Josh Boone and Marcus Williams are at their best. That leads me to their second problem, a lack of outside shooting will really hurt them if they can’t get easy points in transition. Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson are streaky outside shooters that get it going from time to time, however they don’t have a lot of spot up shooters to stretch the floor. The only one is Bostjan Nachbar, and he even hasn’t been consistent throughout his career. He has shot anywhere from 20% to 42% from downtown throughout his career.
4. New York Knicks: The Knicks roster looks good on paper, but wait…hasn’t it for like the last 3 years? The Knicks got a great deal for Zach Randolph and had a solid draft. However, they still have Jamal Crawford, who is just an ill-advised three pointer waiting to happen. They now have an even bigger problem dividing up touches amongst the bigs. On one block is Eddy Curry, who had a great year last year, and now there is Randolph that needs plenty of post touches as well on the other block. With shoot first point guard Stephon Marbury and Crawford hoisting up jumpshots, that could be tough to keep the post players happy. I haven’t even gotten to what they are going to do with David Lee, Quentin Richardson, Renaldo Balkman, Nate Robinson, and even Jared Jeffries. If you have faith in Isiah Thomas to figure this all out, you are a much more trusting man than I.
5. Philadelphia 76ers: This is certainly a team that is rebuilding. They have some promising young pieces and nice complimentary players. That being said, they are a long way from competing for a playoff spot. I think Andre Iguodala is going to be a great Fantasy player this season, but I’m still not sure if he can be a franchise player. He doesn’t have that scorer’s mentality, he has far too many games where he only takes 9 shots. If he is to be the center piece of the offense, that is not going to get it done. Andre Miller is on the down side of his career, so a new point guard is going to be in the rebuilding plans also. The 76ers seem to like Louis Williams as a point guard, but I don’t think he can be a starting point guard in the NBA simply because he is too quick to jack up long three-pointers and not get the offense set up. The sleeper as an emerging young star is Rodney Carney, as he had a great Summer League. Expect them to perform like a typical young team, meaning they will struggle on the road but occasionally nip one of the big dogs at home.
October 21, 2007
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