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The REAL Razorbacks Preview By Ron Jumper If you are like me, you are tired of reading the same material with the same sayings over and over about this year's Razorback football team. We have been told over and over that Arkansas should go 10-2 and McFadden should win the Heisman Trophy. However, while that sounds all nice and sweet, it just is not that simple. There are more factors that go into this season than first meets the eye (which we will discuss later).  Expectations: I want to talk about expectations, as Hog fans have trouble first deciding what they expect to happen and, secondly, being happy when those expectations are met. I want to review for just a minute (you'll quickly see where I'm going with this), at the beginning of last season we were not expecting to win 10 games nor have a Heisman Trophy candidate. While some won't admit it, but most of us would have gladly taken a 10-win season and had McFadden get 2nd in the Heisman voting. Amazingly though, when you exceed expectations it only creates higher expectations to meet in the future. I say all that to discuss the possibilities of that same curse coming true again this season. Now, if we go 10-2 like everyone thinks, what will most likely be the 2 losses? The most common answer is @Tennessee and @LSU, so let's say that happens. Look at the schedule, that means we would be 9-0 going into Knoxville! With us starting out in the polls at #20, you can do the math and see we will most likely be in the Top 5 if we stay undefeated 10 weeks into the season. So where am I going with this one now? If we are ranked in the Top 5 in the polls and are getting excited about the BCS Title Game (as well as the SEC Title), do you really think fans are going to be happy if we stumble down the stretch and lose 2 of our last 3 (with a win against bottom-dweller Mississippi State sandwiched inbetween)? It will be the same old story, Nutt gets everyone fired up about a BCS run and stumbles down the stretch. However, at the same time, it will be exactly what everyone predicted to happen at the beginning of the year! How can that be fair? The Heisman Race: Before we get all excited, don't we know how this is going to play out already? In the four non-conference games, Houston Nutt will play McFadden sparingly (he won't see the second half in any of them). That being said, I can't disagree with him here. If he gets hurt, he will be ripped into pieces and, more importantly, give a deadly blow to the team's season. As far as the Heisman is concerned, this puts McFadden at a disadvantage. With those 4 halfs, he only gets 10 games to win the Heisman to every other candidate's 12 (for those slow at math, 4 halfs is 2 whole games then you add that to the 8 SEC games to get 10). However, that still doesn't kill his Heisman chance the most. What kills it the most is the team, if the Hogs lose 2 of the last 3 games and don't make it to Atlanta for a shot at the SEC Title. How many Heisman winners do you know that weren't on a great team nor led the nation in rushing because he didn't play enough? I'm still thinking, too... Also, you already know when Nutt gets a little pressure about this what is going to happen. McFadden will come to his defense and say that it isn't important to him and he just wants to do what is best for the team. While that may be true, it won't be enough to make the Hog faithful happy. As I've stated in previous articles, expect someone like John David Booty, Chad Henne, Pat White, Steve Slaton, or Colt McCoy to be strong Heisman candidates because their team has a great path paved for them to go undefeated and be in the BCS Title Game. It isn't fair, it is just life... The Schedule: Game By Game So let us get the obvious out of the way, we are going to win against the following: Troy North Texas Tennessee-Chattanooga @Ole Miss Florida International Mississippi State We are more likely to lose against the following: @Tennessee @LSU That leaves 4 games left to be decided: @Alabama Kentucky Auburn South Carolina Starting with Alabama, that will be Saban's SEC home-opener at night on ESPN! That is in no way a gimme. Kentucky is a very tough team for the Hogs to match up with, as they aren't like the traditional SEC offense that is predominantly running. It is no secret about two things: first, Reggie Herring is going to leave our corners in single coverage all game and, second, we don't have the depth at corner that we had last year. Also worth noting, we don't have the same ferocious pass rushers up front that we had last year. We had better hope our offense is on, because this won't be a low-scoring affair. Do I even have to remind everyone what happened last year @Auburn? You can bet they want payback. Besides, when did we become so good that Auburn was a gimme? Give me a break... South Carolina is moving in the right direction and, like Kentucky, should have success throwing against us. Fortunately, they no longer have Sidney Rice to lob it up too. However, we no longer have Chris Houston to lock up their top wideout. I'll call it a wash... Depth: Avoiding The Injury Bug Take a minute to glance at different positions on our team closely, and you will notice the lack of depth. We have a capable starter virtually everywhere, but what happens when a couple guys go down (don't say it won't happen, this is SEC football we're talking about here and injuries are just part of the game). Look at Quarterback, what happens if Casey Dick goes down? We already have enough trouble as it is with everyone healthy. Do we go with Nathan Emert or a freshman QB? How about bringing back Robert Johnson as the emergency backup? With our o-line breaking in two new tackles, we better hope Dick doesn't get a big hit off the edge and go down for the count. Look at Wide Receiver, this one is obvious now with Monk hurt. Who is there to really step up and be the top option if Monk isn't healthy? Not that London Crawford and company don't have talent, but look at how much of a drop off it would be. Look at the Offensive Line, while we do have depth and it isn't a huge deal to replace 3 starters, what happens if Johnathon Luigs gets hurt? Suddenly, it doesn't look so good does it? Look at Cornerback, while I like Jamar Love and Jerrell Norton. You already have Michael Grant returning from major knee surgery, so what happens to the secondary if Matterial Richardson goes down? Suddenly, we're starting guys who haven't produced much in their respective careers. (On another note, I'd like to remind everyone that the reason Matt Hewitt was moved to linebacker was because he struggled mightily at safety and we needed some depth at linebacker. Now, with him back at safety, people seem to be forgetting all that because he was an average linebacker last season.) That sure is a lot of areas to be rail thin on the depth chart at (as far as proven producers), it is going to be a bigger issue than people think. And yes, I will be there to say, "I Told You So" when the time comes later in the season. (I'll admit, I can't help myself.) X-Factors: 1. WR Chris Baker- This is a guy that has always had talent and speed. He was working towards becoming a legitimate deep threat early in his career before enduring a few nagging injuries (as he was also open several times and Matt Jones just simply couldn't get it to him in stride), but the hiring of Malzahn brought in Damien Williams and London Crawford, which pushed Baker out of the rotation. If he can bring some consistency and become a legit deep threat again, it will help the passing game greatly. 2. DT Fred Bledsoe- Despite his poor work ethic, he still has a chance to get on the field and make some plays this season. It appears he has blown his shot at starting, but we still need him to play 10-15 snaps and contribute. With the uncertainty of Marcus Harrison, we need all the d-lineman we can get. 3. PK Alex Tejada- We all know the story on him, he has an incredible leg but struggles at times with accuracy. If he can even just handle kickoff duties, it will be a huge boost because it will negate the rule change of moving the tee back 5 yards to the 30 on kickoffs. 4. TE Ben Cleveland- If he can become a solid blocker in the running game, it will open the offense up because he has serious pass catching and route running skills. David Lee will implement some shorter routes and get the tight end involved, Cleveland just has to be ready to go. 5. P Jeremy Davis- I just want to inform everyone that when we were struggling at the beginning of last year and McFadden wasn't at full strength yet, my friends and I joked that Jacob Skinner was our best player. All jokes aside, he was a big part of what made the Hogs so successful last season and will be missed more than you think. If Davis struggles, it could be serious trouble. Conclusion: With all things considered, it is going to be a good year in Fayetteville. The Hogs should go at worst 8-4 or 9-3, with a legit chance at 10-2 or better. McFadden will be in the running for the Heisman all year long, though whether he wins or not is a whole different story. As far as old Houston Nutt is concerned, I'd be careful for what I wished for this season. If the Hogs go 10-2 (like the scenario above), don't be surprised if Nutt looks for another job elsewhere with Broyles leaving. His bit to other schools will sound something like, "I've won 10 games in back-to-back seasons and the fans still aren't happy." Obviously, this is a long ways away but I'm just putting the thought in your head now.  August 10, 2007 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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