|
2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Kicker & Defense
By Ron Jumper
When it comes to drafting Kickers and Defenses, there is really an art to it. Your natural football instincts tell you to take the most talented kicker and the most stacked defense. However, that is only the begginning of what the process calls for.
For kickers, you have to take into account how good the offense is and whether they will be getting in the end zone or kicking field goals once they hit the red zone. If a team lacks a goalline/short yardage back, then it might struggle to get in the end zone and have to settle for field goals.
For defenses, you have to look at the schedule and the big play potential of the defense. When a defense is average talent-wise (like, say, the New Orleans Saints defense) but plays in a defense-friendly division (like the NFC South, as Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Carolina were all ranked 25th or worse in points) it can lead to good Fantasy numbers. Sometimes a defense is very good and doesn't get scored on often, but they don't accumulate enough turnovers, sacks, and defensive touchdowns. Being a fundamentally sound, dependable defense doesn't translate as well in Fantasy, you need big plays that get you Fantasy Points in bunches.
Top 10 Kickers
1. Adam Vinatieri, Colts: He should reclaim the top spot this season, as he hasn't been the top Fantasy Kicker the last 2 seasons. Assuming he plays all 16 games injury free, he should get all the chances a kicker can hope for with Indianapolis. The Colts defense was hit hard in the off-season, meaning shootouts in the Dome are very likely. Also, even if he doesn't have huge games, he will consistently get points due to the fact the Colts score insane amounts of points (7 games of at least 30 points).
Projection: FGs 34/37, XPs 55/55
2. Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis: While he is a good kicker, he is fortunate to play for the Rams. They are going to put up a lot of points and give Wilkins plenty of chances to earn Fantasy Points.
Projection: FGs 33/38, XPs 45/45
3. Nate Kaeding, San Diego: The typical Fantasy kicker, it is more about his explosive, LT-lead offense than his leg.
Projection: FGs 29/34, XPs 57/57
4. John Kasay, Carolina: Sleeper Alert!! With Kasay, you have wonderful potential for big points. If the offensive playmakers are healthy (Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme, Deshaun Foster) this offense puts up big numbers. The kicker (I couldn't help myself) is that the Panthers don't have a big goalline/short yardage back to get them in the end zone on 3rd and Goal from the 2. Expect Kasay to consistently have 3 or 4 field goal games.
Projection: FGs 36/40, XPs 32/32
5. Neil Rackers, Arizona: Not a bad kicker to have, the question is whether he will be the 2005 or 2006 version. Hopefully, somewhere in between.
Projection: FGs 32/35, XPs 40/40
6. Shayne Graham, Cincinatti: Projection: FGs 30/35, XPs 41/41
7. Jason Elam, Denver: Projection: FG 31/34, XPs 35/35
8. Robbie Gould, Chicago: Projection: FGs 32/37, XPs 28/28
9. David Akers, Philadelphia: Projection: FGs 28/33, XPs 37/37
10. Matt Stover, Baltimore: Projection: FGs 29/34, XPs 33/33
Top 10 Defenses:
1. New England Patriots: The Patriots are the big time defense this season, they have all the talent and the schemes to create sacks and turnovers at will. Don't expect them to lead the league in points allowed, but expect them to more than make up for it in sacks, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Nope, we aren't the usual conservative Fantasy writer that plays it safe by taking Baltimore and Chicago 1st and 2nd. This is my sleeper defense that I feel will break out onto the scene. They have the anchors in the middle (DTs Marcus Stroud and John Henderson) to stop any rushing attack. Their secondary is very undervalued, as they had 20 interceptions last season. This is a defense that finished 7th overall last year and fought through injuries. Expect a big year.
3. Baltimore Ravens: I'm not crazy, I still think the Ravens are a great defense worth drafting. I'm just not as sold on them without LB Adelius Thomas and the fact they will be in tough spots often because of a sputtering offense.
4. Carolina Panthers: Welcome back to the top Carolina, after being devastated by injuries in 2006. This is an easy pick as a team to rise back to the top. With the best defensive line in football led by Julius Peppers, expect sacks-galore and plenty of turnovers.
5. Chicago Bears: The Bears team chemistry is torn to pieces and I see there being some effects from that trickle down to the field. Expect them to be solid, but not spectacular like last season. Also, don't expect a repeat performance from Devin Hester. Return guys have trouble sustaining that kind of success for several seasons, look at Dante Hall.
6. San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are very good defense that does well in all categories. They won't be first in any category, but will be competitive in sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and points allowed.
7. Denver Broncos: The schedule plays a huge part of why the Broncos will be successful this season. They play incumbent, rebuilding offenses Kansas City and Oakland twice a piece and they also get 4 games against the NFC North. So basically half of their games are against pitiful offenses with serious issues at QB.
8. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are aging fast, but still have gas left in the tank. Expect at least a couple more good years out of Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor. If the offense can get in sinc and help keep the defense off the field a little more, this could be a great year in Miami.
9. Seattle Seahawks: This is a tough Seattle defense that is going to be a force to reckoned with. They added some nice pieces in free agency, including DE Patrick Kerney. Their schedule isn't the best, as they play St. Louis twice, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia so that may keep them from being an elite Fantasy defense.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles fell off a little bit last year and were awful against the run. However, they still rack up Fantasy points because they get heavy pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers. Don't pass on them, they are still a top-notch defense.
This wraps up our 2007 Fantasy Football Preview, as we have now broken down every position. We still have a Draft Strategy coming up and will be following the entire Pre-Season making sure nothing slips past us. Once the season gets underway, we will give you weekly tips and advice on how to take your team to the top. Don't Miss Out!!
August 2, 2007
|
|
|