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2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Tight Ends By R.C. I wouldn't call myself a big fan of TE's. I have nothing against them; I just think they tend to be overvalued in a lot of fantasy drafts. As a result, I'll never have an Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez on my team. However, that is perfectly fine with me as there is still plenty of value to be had at this position later in drafts. Many mid-level TE's compare pretty well to their leading counterparts, which is something you could never say about most other positions.  For example, last year #1 TE Antonio Gates only had 313 more yards receiving and 4 more TD's than L.J. Smith, easily a middle-of-the pack TE. Over the course of the season, that equals out to be about 18 yards receiving per game and .25 TD's per game. In other words, passing on Gates and waiting several rounds to get a TE will only costs you minimal fantasy points per game (points you could easily make up by picking up other, more productive players in place of an elite TE). Last year, Gates' average draft position was 34 and Smith's was 99.8. From the mock drafts I've seen for 2007, I'd expect them to go reasonably close to those draft positions this year. There are a lot, and I mean a lot of players to pick in place of Gates to make up for the point differential between him and Smith. I'm not saying my heart is set on L.J. Smith, mind you. I'm simply giving an example of why I feel so strongly that TE's are overvalued, even Antonio Gates. Without further discussion, here is my list of TE's for the 2007 season. 1) Antonio Gates (Chargers) Phillip Rivers will improve on a solid debut season, defenses will focus on Tomlinson, and Gates will continue to be a main target in the red zone. Projection: 1,000 yards and 10 TD's 2) Vernon Davis (49ers) Before you call me crazy, remember that Davis had 3 TD's and 265 yards in an injury plagued rookie season. If healthy, that would have projected to 8 or 9 TD's, a number very similar to our #1 TE Antonio Gates. Projection: 800 yards receiving and 8 TD's (Obviously, this is my breakout pick of the year at this position. You'll see other places rating Davis lower and hedging with "he could be a top 3 TE," but you'll get none of that here. We write it as we see it, and we see Davis having a huge year.) 3) Todd Heap (Ravens) Solid is the best way to describe Heap. I expect what seems to have become a typical year for him. Projection: 700 yards receiving and 7 TD's 4) Chris Cooley (Redskins) He catches everything. And, yes, Jason Campbell is young and definitely not QB1 material. However, when inserted into the lineup late last season he found Cooley quite a bit. I see no reason this won't continue. Projection: 650 yards and 6 TD's 5) Jeremy Shockey (Giants) Another one of those players with injury problems, you can probably expect him to miss (or not be full speed) for at least a few games per year. Projection: 600 yards and 6 TD's 6) Alge Crumpler (Falcons) The Mike Vick situation is enough to edge Crumpler out of the top-5 TE's in my opinion. He'll put up numbers no matter what, but I'd feel a lot better if Vick could be in training camp and not in court next week. Joey Harrington may find comfort in Crumpler and feed him the ball though, so this could be a good upside pick. I still expect a strong year, with numbers very similar to Shockey. Projection: 575 yards and 5 TD’s 7) Randy McMichael (Rams) Getting into the Rams offense really boosted this guy's value. I'm sure he feels like he has a new lease on life getting out of Miami's offense, and I expect him to play like it. Projection: 550 yards and 5 TD’s 8) Kellen Winslow (Browns) I'm afraid of this guy because of the microfracture surgery he had this off-season, which has been known to destroy careers. Many say full recovery doesn't come for at least two years afterwards. Plus, he's going to have a rookie QB throwing to him. But, Winslow has a point when he says "my 90% is as good as everyone else's 100%" in that he is a freakish athlete. Expect injuries, rookies at key positions, and a bad team to hold him back from emerging as an elite Fantasy tight end. Projection: 650 yards and 3 TD's 9) Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs) Bust of the year right here. He struggled early last year, and I think he'll do the same this year with Kansas City in transition at the QB spot. This year, though, I don't expect Gonzalez to get back on track. Watch in training camp, because I think if Croyle wins the QB job this bust becomes even more likely. Projection: 500 yards and 3 TD's 10) L.J. Smith (Eagles) If McNabb is healthy Smith could have a great year; but if McNabb goes down look out. If you think McNabb can stay healthy (but who would?), move him up your draft board. I consider him a pretty safe upside pick, as he should get you 400 yards and a few TD's, with the possibility of much more production if McNabb grows a pair. Projection: 400 yards and 3 TD’s 11) Ben Watson (Patriots) Watson has top 5 talent, but with Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Maroney to spread the ball to, Brady simply won't be able to get him the ball enough to make him an elite fantasy TE. Look for a lot of big catches that moves the chains, but those don't win fantasy titles. Projection: 300 yards and 2 TD's 12) Jason Witten (Cowboys) As long as Terrell Owens is in Dallas, Witten won't be a top fantasy TE. The offense simply looks to Owens too much down around the goal line for Witten to score a lot of TD's. However, if you are going to have a backup TE this one be the one to have. Witten is a top 5 fantasy TE when Owens isn't on the field, so if you think Terrell isn't going to make it through the year then pick this guy up late in the draft. Projection: 400 yards and 2 TDs 13) Tony Scheffler (Broncos) He scored 4 TD's in the last four weeks of his rookie season last year. He won't start this year, but should get a lot of snaps. If you are in a keeper league, you should really try to pick this guy up. Projection: 300 yards and 2 TD’s 14) Dallas Clark (Colts) Needs to stay healthy and he'd be a pretty good fantasy option. After all, anybody that catches passes from Peyton Manning tends to be a pretty good fantasy option. Projection: 400 yards and 4 TD’s **Would be rated higher if not for risk of injury. 15) Owen Daniels (Texans) Scored 5 TD's in his rookie season, and should do well this year if Schaub lives up to expectations. Great upside pick late in the draft, but the fact that he plays for the Texans keeps him from moving any higher. Projection: 275 yards and 2 TD's  July 30, 2007 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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