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Playing The Lottery By Ron Jumper As the NBA Draft approaches, there is so much speculation as to how the draft will unfold. It is important to remember that a lot of it is just blowing smoke so teams don't give away their hand. I decided to break down the lottery team-by-team a little more indepth this time around. I'm going to give the Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario, and Most Likely Scenario, tackling some rumors along the way.  1. Portland Trailblazers Best Case: C Greg Oden, Ohio State They get Greg Oden to build the franchise around and find a taker for Zach Randolph, maybe a Rashard Lewis level player in return. This would put the Blazers in the thick of the playoff hunt out West, right behind San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Utah, Golden State, and Denver. Most likely battling the Clippers, Hornets, and Lakers for the last spot. Worst Case: The only bad thing that could happen is that they don't find a taker for Randolph, which the Blazers have said they supposedly aren't shopping him. They could possibly take Durant and put him at small forward with Aldridge and Randolph rounding out the front court. There really is no bad scenario for Portland. Must be nice... Most Likely: C Greg Oden, Ohio State They take Oden and trade Randolph in exchange for either a promising young player or multiple picks. It becomes a situation where they deem it more important to move Randolph than hold out until they get the highest bid from other teams. 2. Seattle Supersonics Best Case: C Greg Oden, Ohio State The Sonics would suddenly become a good team that could be very dangerous. With Oden, it would probably help them keep Rashard Lewis, giving them a nice frontline of Lewis, Wilcox, and Oden. If Ray Allen got healthy, this team could make the playoffs. Worst Case: The Sonics lose Lewis to free agency and take Kevin Durant. Not a terrible thing, as they hope Durant can more than replace Lewis. I think he can, but it will take time. Something Ray Allen doesn't have. Most Likely: SF Kevin Durant, Texas They take Durant and hope for the best in retaining Lewis or trying to work out a sign and trade to at least get something in return. (Rumor has it that Rashard Lewis is already gone, as evidenced by his Seattle house selling recently. It is looking more and more like Durant will be his replacement, not teammate.) 3. Atlanta Hawks Best Case: PF/C Al Horford, Florida The thing people forget about the Hawks roster is they have TWO needs: point guard AND center. They have no one that has a legit back-to-the-basket game nor a 6'10" 240 frame with the skillset of Horford. They could possibly luck out and get Conley at 11, but I don't see it making a substantial difference if they have to take Acie Law, IV. Getting either poised, gutsy PG will make them a lot smoother offensively. Worst Case: The Hawks are...well...the Hawks. There is always the possibility of them doing something shocking like taking Yi Jianlian. It wouldn't shock me if they continued taking the best athlete available, like a Brandan Wright. Most Likely: PF/C Al Horford The Hawks really are the team that shapes up a lot of how the draft will play out. If they take Conley, Acie Law will go much higher than expected because other teams need a point guard also. Horford would fall to 5th or even possibly 7th if the Hawks pass on him. Teams will have a much clearer look as to who they will take once the Hawks get off the board. However, taking Horford pushes Conley further back and so on... 4. Memphis Grizzlies Best Case: PG Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State The Grizzlies have to resist the urge to take Yi or one of the many small forwards in this class and take Conley if the Hawks pass on him. They have no one to run the point for the years to come, while they have promising players at virtually every other position like Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, and Pau Gasol. Taking a point guard just makes sense here if Conley falls to them. Worst Case: If they take a big man like Yi or Horford, I think it spells the end for Pau Gasol in Memphis. It would mean they are in complete rebuilding mode and might as well move Gasol for a package with a young player and/or draft picks. Most Likely: PG Mike Conley, Ohio State As I stated with the Hawks, the Grizzlies pick completely changes depending on what the Hawks do. There is an outside chance the Grizzlies would take a small forward or Yi Jianlian if Conley isn't available. 5. Boston Celtics Best Case: PF/C Al Horford, Florida If I'm the Celtics, I would love to see Horford drop this far. Once again, it all depends on what the Hawks do at 3. I think Horford and Jefferson would be a perfect tandem inside, or Horford could be a great replacement if Jefferson is moved in a package deal for one of the superstars out there on the trading block. Worst Case: SF Yi Jianlian, China While Yi is probably going to be a stud someday, it is the last thing Celtics fans want right now. No pick could discourage the fan base more because it spells rebuilding not reloading. Most Likely: SF Yi Jianlian, China Yep, this is Danny Ainge we're talking about so don't expect to be blown away with this pick. Do expect the season ticket sales to fall and the list of excuses Doc Rivers has (seemingly on a roladex) to grow even larger. 6. Milwaukee Bucks Best Case: SF Jeff Green, Georgetown Hopefully, none of the athletic wing players will be taken so the Bucks will have their pick. I would take Jeff Green because he seems like he would fit in so perfectly. I see him having a Andre Iguolada-like career because he does everything well but nothing amazing. He will never be a number 1 option so it is good for him to have Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut. Worst Case: SG/SF Corey Brewer, Florida I'm not big on Corey Brewer, but a lot of scouts are so we will see how that pans out. If Green goes to Memphis or Boston, this is the most likely pick for the Bucks. Personally, I would take Al Thornton over Brewer but that doesn't seem likely at this point. Most Likely: Jeff Green Most of the decisions in the first five picks impact where the big guys or point guards will fall, not so much where the wing players will land. Expect the Bucks to get a nice small forward here, whether they decide to take Green or Brewer is the question. 7. Minnesota Timberwolves Best Case: PF Brandan Wright, UNC Wright being available at 7 would be a huge break for the Timberwolves, who seem to be under more and more heat as KG's contract gets closer and closer to running out. Wright works either way they go, he can help the current roster or be a key part of a trade to change the scenario out in 'Sota. Some of you may be shaking your heads, but this is plausible. Worst Case: SG/SF Corey Brewer, Florida While some like the idea of adding Brewer, I just think it will be another mistake made by GM Kevin McHale. I'm just not sold and don't think he fits what they need, which is exactly why McHale will draft him. Gotta love the NBA... Most Likely: Corey Brewer Nope, I'm not a big Kevin McHale fan. How'd you know?  8. Charlotte Bobcats Best Case: The Bobcats are really just hoping someone falls through the cracks and they catch a break, which is plausible considering Boston and Minnesota are ahead of them. There isn't really a true need they have to get here. They have promising youth at every position. If it was me, I would take a player who could be a big time scorer because they don't have anyone who can consistently get 25 or 30. They also have zero pressure to win now so someone like Yi wouldn't be a bad idea if he fell this far. Worst Case: They really couldn't make a bad pick here, anyone like Joakim Noah, Al Thornton, Julian Wright, Spencer Hawes, or even Thaddeous Young would help them get better. Most Likely: PF/C Joakim Noah, Florida While I have said I don't see Noah being an All-Star, I think he would help them for several reasons. He brings a winning energy and passion, as well as being athletic and able to get up and down the floor. I don't see many places where I think Noah would be a good fit, but in Charlotte he would be just right. 9. Chicago Bulls Best Case: C Spencer Hawes, Washington He will be available at number 9 most likely, but I just think this is the pick they have to make. They passed on Lamarcus Aldridge last year and I hope they don't make the same mistake again. Hawes won't be a double-double guy right away, but he would help them tremendously just by averaging something like 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. It is not really about the numbers, it is about having someone who can play with their back to the basket. Ben Wallace, P.J. Brown, and Tyrus Thomas will never be that type of player while Hawes is that type of player. Worst Case: I can see them taking one of the many talented wing players that will be coming off the board in the 7-12 range. That doesn't help unless they are just adding pieces to offer in a trade for someone like Gasol, Jermaine O'Neal, or someone like that. Most Likely: Spencer Hawes Please, Chicago. Do the right thing... 10. Sacramento Kings Best Case: If I'm the Kings, I just would take the best player available for multiple reasons. First, you have no idea what your roster will look like a month from now. Second, you have a new coach. Third, you have no glaring need other than overall talent. Worst Case: They really couldn't make too awful a pick here, unless they just made a huge reach. Any of Julian Wright, Spencer Hawes, Al Thornton, Nick Young, or Javaris Crittenton wouldn't be bad. Most Likely: SF Julian Wright, Kansas I think he makes the most sense because he can be a point-forward. With shooters like Bibby and Martin in the backcourt, it would be a perfect fit to let Wright create offense because he is a wonderful passer. Honestly, I think it could add years to Bibby's career if they take Wright here. 11. Atlanta Hawks Best Case: PG Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State Some mocks, including mine from a few weeks back, have this scenario playing out. It will be a long shot but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Consider the Hawks lucked out and got the 3rd pick so Phoenix didn't get it, imagine if Phoenix had the 4th pick. That could have been scary for everyone else if a Brandan Wright or Al Horford joined their roster. So maybe they will luck out and Conley drops into their lap. Worst Case: As I've stated, this is Atlanta. They could not take a PG with either pick. Many mocks have Al Thornton or some other wing player going to the Hawks at 11. I've learned with Atlanta, anything is possible. Most Likely: PG Acie Law IV, Texas A&M Most likely Conley will be gone and the Hawks take the next best PG almost by default because all the great athletes are gone as well. None the less, they could easily come out of this draft with the right pieces in place to make the playoffs. Yes, I did actually say the "P" word. 12. Philadelphia 76ers Best Case: The odds of a power forward like Noah or Wright slipping to them here is very slim, but that would be ideal here. Worst Case: If all the players they are coveting are gone and they can't move the pick, they might have to make a major reach. Someone like Javaris Crittenton, Jason Smith, Josh McRoberts, or Rodney Stuckey might seriously have a shot at getting taken this high by Philly. Most Likely: SF Al Thornton, Florida State While the 76ers don't need a SF from a depth chart perspective, they could use Thornton because of his scoring ability. They really don't have a guy who has a go-to-guy scorer's mentality. Thornton could eventually be a big time scorer for them if given the chance. 13. New Orleans Hornets Best Case: They need an athletic wing player to compliment Chris Paul. If Julian Wright or Al Thornton falls to here, I think the Hornets would be nuts to pass on them. Nick Young and Thaddeus Young are possibilities as well that would make sense. Worst Case: It is unlikely, but taking another big man here would be a huge mistake. They already have more young big men than they have time to develop them. Most Likely: SF Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech I don't see why his stock has dropped a little bit. Nothing with him has changed. He is an athletic player with tremendous upside that will take a few years to be a major contributor. No one ever thought he was going to step right in and be a stud. He has the tools there to work with and is a safe bet to end being pretty good one day. 14. L.A. Clippers Best Case: PG Acie Law IV, Texas A&M The Clippers need a point guard and they like Law. If he falls to here, they will grab him up. He does seem to fit them perfectly, especially his personality. A gritty, tough guard like Law just wouldn't look right for a glamorous team like, say, the Lakers. Worst Case: The Clippers aren't a real deep team and could use another big. There is always the possibility of them trading Maggette and taking wing player, so really they couldn't make too bad a pick here. Most Likely: PG Javaris Crittenton, Georgia Tech It just seems as though PG is the position they want here. With Cassell aging and Livingston dissappointing, they feel they could really use another floor general on the roster.  June 25, 2007 |
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