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Fantasy Special: The Rookie Impact
By Ron Jumper
For true football lovers, once the NFL Draft ends it is time to move on to the next aspect of following our traditional Sunday pastime. It is time to figure out how the draft impacted our Fantasy Football League. Come on, admit it. You know you were thinking to yourself what round you were going to try and steal Adrian Peterson. Or maybe you were wondering what you should do about Calvin Johnson, considering he went to the equivalent of wide receiver suicide out in Detroit. With all that in mind, I’m going to give you the rundown on who I think you should take, who you should keep an eye on, and who you should stay away from. I will also take a look at what veteran’s fantasy value was changed because of the draft.
Who You Should Take
1. RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings The Vikings will rely heavily on the ground game next season. While there are scouts who still feel Tarvaris Jackson will be a good quarterback someday, that day is at least a few years away for the raw QB from Alabama State. Peterson is a dynamic back with all the power and speed you could ask for. Be looking for him in the middle rounds of the draft after the first wave of running backs are off the board. 2. RB Marshawn Lynch, Bills The Bills have no one to carry the load. Lynch was a guy that I felt was very talented out of Cal. He has speed and fights for yards after contact. He is an everydown back in my opinion, so don’t be surprised when has a solid number of touchdowns throughout the year. With the Bills being desperate at tailback, Lynch makes perfect sense to take in middle rounds.
3. WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs The Chiefs don’t have an elite wide receiver or even a dangerous deep threat. Tony Gonzalez is a great tight end, but that doesn’t mean there still aren’t balls available for a speedy wideout. With Samie Parker and Eddie Kennison as the current starters, don’t expect it to take too long for Bowe to make an impact. Picking him up in the last few rounds of the draft would be a bargain.
4. WR Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers With the Panthers getting rid of Keyshawn Johnson, it is clear that Jarrett is expected to be a big part of the Panthers plans this season. I also think Jarrett is a perfect complement to Steve Smith. Smith is a shorter, speedy wideout while Jarrett is a tall and physical. He is another guy who will be a late round steal.
5. WR’s Paul Williams, Chris Davis, and Joel Filani, Titans This one is real simple, Vince Young has to throw to someone over the course of the season. The Titans currently have no weapons for Young to share the ball with. All three won’t be big fantasy stars, but expect at least 1 of these guys to establish himself as a capable starter for your fantasy team by the end of the year.
Who You Should Keep An Eye On
1. WR Calvin Johnson, Lions No one has more of a wide range as far as guessing how productive they will be. He could have a Randy Moss impact or he could be more like Mike Williams. No one thought Mike Williams would fail as miserably as he has, but the Lions proved they can ruin anyone’s career. Johnson is a freak of nature and Mike Martz should be able to get him involved without much trouble. There is still the problem of who is going to throw him the ball, so…
2. QB Drew Stanton, Lions I have Stanton here mostly because he could have such a negative impact on Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams if the Lions decide to put him out there and just let him learn the hard way. If somehow he performs well, Mike Martz’s pass-heavy style could lead to good fantasy numbers for Stanton and Johnson, though it won’t lead to very many wins in the Motor City.
3. RB Michael Bush, Raiders I love this former Cardinal. Bush came into the college season as a projected top 10 pick and Heisman hopeful. He suffered a broken leg and plummeted down the draft board. He still has great ability and size though. If Lamont Jordan doesn’t turn up his production on the ground, expect the Raiders to give Bush a shot. This isn’t a guy who will be drafted but certainly someone who could be carrying the load down the stretch of the season when the Raiders know they won’t be making it to the playoffs. He could be the piece that puts your fantasy team over the top in week 17 when most teams are sitting their top guys.
4. WR Sidney Rice, Vikings Rice is a great talent. I still don’t really understand why he slipped to the second round of the draft. With the Vikings not having a legitimate go-to-guy in the air, Rice could easily burst into the rotation and catch his share of balls. Probably won’t be drafted, but look closely during the preseason to see how he is doing.
5. TE Greg Olsen. Bears If Olsen can get into the rotation he could be very productive because of his 4.5 speed, which is very fast for a tight end. However, there is a chance he won’t get to play because he doesn’t really dominate as a blocker. Olsen also has a very capable tight end in Desmond Clark to compete with for playing time.
(Note: Dolphins QB John Beck was very close to making this list, he definitely deserves an honorable mention because of the weapons around him. Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ted Ginn, Jr. give him pieces to work with if he shows he can handle being the starting quarterback. You should certainly keep an eye on his production.)
Who You Should Stay Away From
1. QB Jamarcus Russell, Raiders The Raiders don’t have enough weapons around Russell for him to put up good numbers. Rookie QBs always have a large number of interceptions, which can add up quick in Fantasy Football Land.
2. WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Dolphins Ginn was one of my favorite college players last season, but that doesn’t mean I love his Fantasy value. He will be the 3rd or 4th receiver so don’t expect him to get a lot of touches, except in the return game. If only special teams was a bigger part of the Fantasy fun.
3. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Colts While it could be easy to get excited about another weapon in Manning’s arsenal, Gonzalez won’t be in the mix enough to warrant Fantasy considerations. However, as is usually the case, he is capable if Harrison or Wayne go down.
4. RB Kenny Irons, Bengals While Irons was a good college back, he doesn’t have a good situation with the Bengals. I really don’t understand why they took a running back, they already have Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. Don’t expect Irons to hardly ever see the field.
5. RB Chris Henry, Titans He is the perfect example of how the combine is relied on way too heavily in the draft process. While it is absolutely wonderful that he is 230 and runs a 4.4, shouldn’t it bother you that he only had 581 yards for Arizona State and struggled to keep his starting job? Wouldn’t that be a hint that maybe he isn’t that good?
Veterans Impacted By The Draft *This is both positive and negative impacts
1. RB Chester Taylor, Vikings This is the obvious choice by virtually everyone. While Taylor is a quality running back, guys like Peterson just don’t come around very often. Bad break for Taylor, good fortune for the Vikings.
2. WR Mike Furrey, Lions With the addition of Johnson, Furrey is going to be moved out of the starting lineup most likely and off of your Fantasy team. While his 98 catches were quite impressive in 2006, he appears to be a one hit wonder.
3. RB Jamal Lewis, Browns With the addition of Joe Thomas, running lanes will be a little bit wider for Jamal in 2007. When the Browns decide to start Quinn, they will want to make his transition into the NFL as smooth as possible. This usually means running the ball more and calling some easier passes such as screens and/or swing passes. Lewis is certainly benefiting from the Browns wonderful draft.
4. RB LaMont Jordan, Raiders Jordan hasn’t panned out as well as the Raiders would have hoped, which is also costing them financially as he was given a nice pay day. Michael Bush is a dynamic back when he is healthy, if he can get back into his college form the Raiders depth chart might look a little different at RB.
5. WR Randy Moss, Patriots While Moss will help the Patriots win, I don’t see him having the chance to put up phenomenal numbers in New England. The ball will be spread around to multiple players and, thus, limit individual achievement by the wideouts. There is also the possibility of Moss not buying in to the team philosophy and being benched/released, etc.
May 11, 2007
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