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Jumpology: Bracket Breakdown Part II
By Ron Jumper

With a great week of college hoops in store, it is time to update the Bracket Breakdown. For Part 2, I’m going to add in all the teams with automatic bids into the equation then evaluate what the “big schools” need to do to solidify themselves into the Dance. With only Wright State stealing a bid away from an at-large team thus far, the field is still wide open. However, expect a few crazy upsets in the days to come.

As stated before, I’m putting in all the auto bids and who I feel is a lock for the tourney. Then I'm going to look at all the teams left with a shot and look at how many spots I have left to decide between them. Then I'll take into account factors like bad losses, quality wins, strength of schedule, and how well they have played down the stretch of the season. After that, I am going to look at what each team has left and what would seal their fate in March Madness.

Key:
AB = Automatic Bid
PAB = Predicted Auto Bid
L = Lock
WTD = Work To Do

America East
Vermont (PAB)

Atlantic 10
Xavier (PAB)

ACC
UNC (PAB)
Virginia Tech (L)
Virginia (L)
Boston College (L)
Duke (L)
Maryland (L)
Georgia Tech (WTD)

Atlantic Sun
Belmont (AB)

Big East
Georgetown (PAB)
Pittsburgh (L)
Louisville (L)
Notre Dame (L)
Syracuse (L)
Marquette (L)
West Virginia (WTD)

Big Sky
Weber State (PAB)

Big South
Winthrop (AB)

Big Ten
Ohio State (PAB)
Wisconsin (L)
Illinois (L)
Michigan State (L)
Indiana (L)
Purdue (WTD)

Big 12
Kansas (PAB)
Texas A&M (L)
Texas (L)
Texas Tech (WTD)
Kansas State (WTD)

Big West
Long Beach State (PAB)

CAA
VCU (AB)
Old Dominion (L)
Drexel (WTD)

Conference USA
Memphis (AB)

Horizon
Wright State (AB)
Butler (L)

Ivy
Penn (AB)

MAAC
Niagra (AB)

MAC
Akron (PAB)

MCC
Oral Roberts (AB)

MEAC
Delaware State (PAB)

MVC
Creighton (AB)
Southern Illinois (L)
Missouri State (L)

MWC
UNLV (PAB)
Air Force (L)
BYU (WTD)
San Diego State (WTD)

NEC
Central Connecticut State (PAB)

OVC
Eastern Kentucky (AB)

PAC-10
UCLA (PAB)
WSU (L)
USC (L)
Oregon (L)
Arizona (L)
Stanford (WTD)

Patriot
Holy Cross (PAB)

SEC
Florida (PAB)
Vanderbilt (L)
Tennessee (L)
Kentucky (L)
Ole Miss (WTD)
Mississippi State (WTD)

Southern
Davidson (AB)
Appalachian State (L)

Southland
Texas A&M-CC (PAB)

SWAC
Mississippi Valley State (PAB)

Sun Belt
North Texas (AB)

West Coast Conference
Gonzaga (AB)

WAC
Nevada (PAB)
New Mexico State (WTD)

Keeping track, that is 31 automatic bids, 29 locks, and 12 work-to-do’s. With 12 teams fighting for only 5 spots, this is going to be a crazy week without question. Honestly, I would hate to be on committee and have to decide who goes. Well, on second thought, it would be one of those good problems like “I can’t decide, cans or bottles?”

Starting with Texas Tech, the Red Raiders have three really good wins. Two of them are against Texas A&M and the other is against Kansas. Combining that with a 9-7 record in conference play, Texas Tech just needs one win in the conference tournament to make it in. As long as they don’t have an embarrassing loss to Colorado, I feel like Bobby Knight will get a chance to go dancing.

Ole Miss is an intriguing team to break down. On one hand, they finished tied for 1st in the SEC West. On the other hand, they lost to Saint Louis and South Carolina. They have to have a big win or two in the tourney to have any hope. Honestly, I think they need to make it to the finals to get in. The same goes for Mississippi State.

With such a young team, most would have thought the Yellow Jackets would have fell out of the bubble down the stretch. A big win over North Carolina later, and Georgia Tech has hope they can make it in. As long as they don’t have an embarrassing performance in the ACC tourney, I think they can make it in. That being said, don’t be surprised if they get left out because the committee doesn’t feel the ACC deserves 7 bids.

West Virginia could have punched their tickets had they beaten Pittsburgh last week. However, they did beat a bad Cincinnati team by 14. They need a big win over Providence, who is better than they get credit for. If that doesn’t happen, their bubble might be burst. Regardless, the Mountaineers have had a great year if you consider how good they were predicted to be in the preseason.

As I wrote awhile back, Purdue is for real this year. I think they are in good shape as long as they have a good showing in the tournament. That being said, they still need to beat Iowa to make sure.

Drexel is the team that is probably hurt the most by Wright State making it to the Big Dance. The Dragons have had a great season and it would be nice to see them in the Big Dance. That being said, I just can’t see the CAA getting 3 teams in. Though I’m all for it, the CAA still doesn’t get the credit it deserves. They need some of the teams mentioned above to slip up and create an open spot for them.

BYU and San Diego State are very good basketball teams. However, I just don’t see the Mountain West getting 4 teams into the tourney. While I like BYU, I just would have to say San Diego State is the more talented team. If the Cougars or Aztecs can get it going in the Mountain West tourney, I think one of them can squeeze in.

Kansas State lost to Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, thus resulting in no real change in their status on the bubble. They have to get a couple of wins in the Big 12 tournament to give them a shot. I would say the window is closing on the Wildcats.

The Stanford Cardinal are a good basketball team, they just may be the odd team out in the PAC-10 this season. I feel good about the league getting 5 teams in, but the 6th team might be a little bit of a stretch. However, wins over UNLV, Memphis, San Diego State, and Louisville will certainly help their cause. If they beat USC on Thursday, I think they are going to make it hard for them to be left out.

New Mexico State had a golden opportunity to make a signature win at Nevada. However, poor shot selection and coaching moves down the stretch gave Nevada the victory. They pretty much need to make it to the finals of the conference tournament to have a shot, though the WAC has been a league known to get multiple teams in to the Big Dance.

Well there you have it. With every team broken down and every angle covered, expect a fun week of action this week as teams fight for their lives. Of course, nothing will go as planned and someone will turn the whole bracket upside down but isn’t that what makes it the greatest month of the year?

March 7, 2007

 

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    NCAA Basketball
    Jumpology: My Bracket

Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights

Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket

Jumpology: The Final Bracket