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The Secret Is Out By Ron Jumper With a 77-65 win over the 9th ranked Butler Bulldogs, it is safe to say Wright State is no longer flying under the radar. After stumbling out the gate to a 3-5 start overall, the Wright State Raiders were written off in the Horizon Conference and forgotten about in general. It turns out new head coach Brad Brownell just needed a little time to pull it all together, as they have reeled off 16 out of 19 wins. If you have been following my picks on the Daily Dose Of Hoops, you know I have been on the Wright State bandwagon. People have joked with me about it, but I stood firm that those guys could play. DaShaun Wood is a playmaker at the point guard position, though known more for his scoring. He currently leads the Raiders in scoring (18 ppg) and assists (3.7 apg), not to mention a solid 5 rebounds per outing. Wood is a senior out of Detroit, MI who went virtually unnoticed out of high school. With the emphasis on recruiting that there is now, it amazes me how many guys still slide through the cracks. The preseason magazines were way off in general when breaking down the Horizon Conference. Taking a look at Lindsey’s College Basketball Magazine, they seemed to have it all backwards. They had Butler as the 4th best team in the conference, while Wright State was 5th. In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, the Butler Bulldogs have emerged as the top mid-major team period. I can understand how you underrated Wright State though, they had a new coach coming in and had just come out of some NCAA investigations. I will throw the preseason mags a bone though, I felt like Loyola-Chicago was going to be the class of the Horizon as well. I mentioned the Ramblers in my Mid-Majors To Watch awhile back, as well as leaving off Butler and Wright State in the process. Ashamed to admit it, but one must go on. The emergence of these two programs this year has sparked my interest because it suddenly makes the Horizon Conference capable of becoming a very solid mid-major conference in the future. We know about Butler and Wright State this year, but don’t forget about the recent success of UW-Milwaukee in the NCAA Tournament. They are down this year due to losing Bruce Pearl and all five starters, but don’t expect them to be down for too long. Loyola-Chicago is a respectable club still, though they haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. With a little luck, the Horizon could quietly become more than a 1 bid conference in the coming years due to the apparent upswing in talent. Just something to watch for… Speaking of multiple bids, does this give Wright State that signature win it needed to make a splash in March? Having looked over their resume, there really isn’t much outside the conference for them to brag about. However, if they end up at 14-2 in conference like they should but lose to Butler in conference tourney, does that throw them out of the Big Dance? They are in a really tough spot because they deserve to be in but asking the committee to take someone else’s spot away is truly asking a lot. They look to be one of the odd teams out. With the ACC having such a strong year as a conference, I expect that conference to take away at least 2 spots that could possibly have gone to mid-majors. ESPN just talked about the possibility of 9 ACC teams in the tournament, that doesn’t look good for teams like a Wright State, Hofstra, Drexel, Old Dominion, or the odd team out in the MVC after Southern Illinois and Creighton. Wright State has one real shot left at getting a relatively meaningful non-conference win when they take on Cal State Fullerton on Bracket Buster Saturday. That game could go a long way to giving them an at large bid, especially if the committee notices how much the team has improved down the stretch. The committee supposedly looks at the last 10 games of the season, with Wright State having a great shot at finishing 10-0 down the stretch in the regular season they could have a solid argument come selection Sunday. All the credit for the revival has to be given to new head coach Brad Brownell. Brownell came from UNC-Wilmington, where he took them to the NCAA Tournament 2 out of 4 seasons. If you saw his team play in that time, you would know how much the fundamentals of the game are stressed. You would also know his emphasis on spacing, ball movement, and shot selection. While at UNC-Wilmington, he took teams with limited talent and overachieved without question to post an 83-40 record. My only real question is why he took what seems to be a lateral move by going to Wright State. With the parity in college basketball becoming so prevalent, it makes everything interesting and more exciting to watch. However, I just hope this doesn’t prompt the NCAA to try and expand the field to a larger number because then it takes away from the validity of actually making post-season play. Teams don’t want to be in just because of expansion, they would rather earn it. Making the tournament is a great selling point to recruits. Without that, some of these small schools with limited facilities and exposure really wouldn’t have much to sell. With performance on the court reaching new levels of parity, is it safe to assume that recruiting will take on the same mold? Take conferences like the CAA, MVC, and even the Horizon, are they gaining an edge on the big dogs in recruiting? Just watch, there will be a big time prospect commit to a small school in the next few years and then recruiting won’t ever be the same either (more on that later). To illustrate my point, I looked at typical signings from 2002-2004 in the CAA, MVC, and Horizon. I then decided to compare those signings with 2005-2007 to see if the average incoming talent was getting better. The results were pretty staggering. CAA 02-04 3-Star Or Better Recruits: 12 05-07 3-Star Or Better Recruits: 24 Horizon 02-04 3-Star Or Better Recruits: 12 05-07 3-Star Or Better Recruits: 7 MVC 02-04 3-Star Recruits Or Better: 9 05-07 3-Star Recruits Or Better: 20 (All information was gathered at Scout.com) As you can see, the results make it pretty clear the CAA and MVC are on the upswing overall as conferences. While Butler and Wright State are doing well individually, you can see that the Horizon is dropping in overall talent. Of course, these ratings are just something to use to attempt to measure the growth of conferences. It isn’t always accurate. Consider Patrick O’Bryant, Randal Falkner, and Loren Stokes were all only rated 2-Star recruits coming out of high school, thus making the ratings at least a little inaccurate. Leading the way with 6 recruits rated 3-Star or better since 2005, it is not hard to see how George Mason was the first mid-major in the Final Four. The Patriots quietly accumulated a solid amount of talent, mostly out of Maryland, and the rest was history. This season George Mason hasn’t been able to dominate the CAA and isn’t even one of the top 4 teams. Not to fear though, virtually all of this year’s team will be back next year. More importantly, Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell will be seniors next season and should give head coach Jim Larranaga all the fire power he needs to make another attempt at history. All the coaches in these conferences need is for just one 5-Star guy to make a leap of faith and sign with a little guy. If that happens, the doors will swing wide open and college basketball will never be the same. The gap between Mid-Major and High-Major would be bridged, which would change basketball as we know it forever. February 12, 2007 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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