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Signing Day: Letting The Dust Settle
By Ron Jumper
With Signing Day past us, it is time to dive into the future of college football. It is time to examine who has exceeded expectations, who has failed miserably, and who did about what they were supposed to. Coaches put a feather in their cap when they have success in recruiting; meanwhile, coaches tell us how these recruiting services don’t know what they are talking about when they rate their schools lower than expected. So much to discuss, let’s get started.
The whole idea behind recruiting has become crazy and blown out of proportion. I really don’t understand what has made it become so compelling and fascinating. If I had to guess, I would say fans get excited reading about these high school standouts that might come to their favorite school. The ridiculous numbers are put in the articles, which are probably inflated, and you can’t help but get excited about the possibilities and potential the latest 6’4” 230 pound linebacker from Texas that supposedly runs a sub 4.3 in the forty has. We all get caught up in the possibilities, whether you will admit it or not. However, I want to examine how these top ranked guys turn out and how some of the lower rated guys turn out.
ESPN’s Latest 2007 NFL Draft Big Board
1. Calvin Johnson- Rated a 5-star out of high school 2. Brady Quinn- Rated a 4-star out of high school 3. JaMarcus Russell- Rated a 5-star out of high school 4. Joe Thomas- Rated a 1-star out of high school 5. Alan Branch- Rated a 3-star out of high school 6. Gaines Adam- Rated a 2-star out of high school 7. Adrian Peterson- Rated a 5-star out of high school 8. Jamal Anderson- Rated a 1-star out of high school 9. Leon Hall- Rated a 4-star out of high school 10. Laron Landry- Rated a 4-star out of high school
So looking back, only 3 of the top 10 players in this year’s draft were 5-star recruits coming out of high school. There are even a couple of 1-star recruits in the top 10. So what does this mean? It means we have no idea how good these guys are going to be when it is all said and done. It means there is no way to measure someone’s ability to compete for playing time, add desired weight and speed, learn the system, and stay off the injured list when all these things were non-issues in high school.
I would also like to bring something else back to the argument, the game evolves and changes over time as well. We didn’t use to covet running QB’s or smaller, quicker running backs. Now, with speed being such a focus, scrambling QB’s get more attention than the pure pocket QB. Running backs are getting smaller, shiftier, and faster than ever before. The recruitment of guys as “athletes” has become a popular thing in today’s recruiting system as well. I guess what I’m trying to say is this, how can a guy be textbook size when the next chapter of greatness hasn’t been written?
Onto the next subject, who went above and beyond the call of duty and who missed the boat? Well, for starters, the SEC hit the recruiting jackpot this season. Of the top 100 players in the country, 34 of them signed in the SEC. They also signed a whopping 121 recruits that are 4-star or better. No other conference is even a close second when it comes to recruiting.
Here are some teams who overachieved…
South Carolina
It shows how tough a league the SEC is when a school like South Carolina gets a top 10 class in the country and is still only the 5th best class in the SEC. Spurrier did an amazing job recruiting and is still not closed the talent gap with the rest of the league. They are on the right track though, because this is such a deep class with 16 players rated a 4-star or better.
Pittsburgh
If this had been basketball signing day I wouldn’t have been so shocked to see the Panthers listed in the top 10 in the nation. Really, seeing any Big East school in the top 10 would have been tough to believe. The second best Big East class is West Virginia at 25th.
North Carolina
I can’t lie, after the season the Tar Heels had I didn’t think Bear Bryant would be able to revive this program. However, Butch Davis has done a remarkable job by pulling in a top 15 class. Take a look at the commit dates of the players, almost all of them were late January and early February. Davis scrapped until the end and pulled out a nice class.
Illinois
Ron Zook has the talent coming in with this top 25 class to make everyone forget about his actual coaching abilities for a few months. I always say this when a new coach comes in, you should see improvement from the previous coach whether that coach has had time to recruit or not. If Zook was a better actual coach, the Fighting Illini would have had more wins to show for it. It isn’t like Zook has a complex spread offense or a west coast system that you have to have the right personnel in place to be productive. With the increase in talent, they will most likely become a team that makes a bowl every other year and occasionally wins 7 or 8 games. I don’t see Zook getting them to a team that can win 10 or 11 games.
Colorado
When the Buffaloes got off to their woeful start, it didn’t appear Dan Hawkins was going to be able to get the job done. However, Hawkins pulled off a top 40 class and is giving the Colorado faithful something to be optimistic about for the future.
Now for some teams who disappointed…
Boise State
After winning a BCS Bowl, you would think the recruits would want to come to Boise State. Not so, as the Broncos class came in at 52, it appears their quest for respect in recruiting is still a work in progress.
TCU
The Horned Frogs are a very good program and located right in the heart of Texas. How they finished 3rd in the Mountain West behind BYU and Utah is a mystery to me. I felt like this was a year for them to break out on the scene and get some big names. Though I love Gary Patterson, he didn’t quite get it done.
Arkansas
Missing out on virtually all the top talent in the state, Houston Nutt didn’t get it done. The class isn’t as bad as people make it out to be, with an excellent crop of OL and DL commits. However, a 10-win season and SEC Championship appearance raised the bar without a question. If Nutt gets the top 3 or 4 guys in the state, this is a top 20 class and everyone is happy. It just wasn’t the case, however.
Oregon State
The Beavers had a great season and even beat USC. In a down year overall for the PAC-10, you would have liked to have finished better than 7th in your own conference. They signed 11 solid players, but settled for a startling 20 2-star recruits. That isn’t going to go get you to the top of the conference any time soon.
Wake Forest
With a trip to a BCS Bowl and an ACC championship under their belts, one would expect to have a better class than the Deamon Decons had. The only team in the conference with a worse class was Duke, not something to hang your hat on. Unless there are some surprises, it appears Wake Forest will be a 1-year wonder.
February 9, 2007
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