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Super Bowl Special
By Ron Jumper

The best individual sporting event seen around the world every year. The Super Bowl is all anyone can talk about for the 2 weeks prior to the game. Take into account that you have the two most scrutinized and criticized quarterbacks in the league this year, and it is a pretty safe bet the media will be chomping at the bits to tear down the loser if this game. Peyton Manning, now that he has won a big game, still has to win the big game. Rex Grosman has been chewed up and spit out by the media time and again this season. Imagine if you had the pressure on your shoulders that these two guys had. It is a lot stress to try and handle, nevermind the actual game itself. I cant wait to see how they handle it live and in person since yours truly will be at the game this weekend getting an up close look at all the action! Feel free to hate me now...

We must mention that the first African-American NFL head coach will win a Super Bowl. Being a long time Tampa Bay fan, I'm a big Tony Dungy guy. Dungy took the Bucs out of the gutter and into the playoffs, but that wasn't good enough so he was fired and then hired by the Colts. During last season's playoff run, Dungy had to deal with his biggest distraction that made all the other issues seem obsolete. His son had committed suicide. It is bad enough to lose him to a car accident or disease, but to know your son took his life is a large pill to swallow. You really couldn't blame him for not winning it all last year, as any person in their right mind would be unable to stay focused on the task at hand. Going back to the beginning of this season, the Colts lost Edgerin James and replaced him with 1st round pick Joseph Adaii. They didn't add any truly signifigant players in free agency. This season didn't have the experts saying it was the Colts year. However, after a 9-0 start, the Colts were back in the title talk. What was different this year than last year, though? They weren't blowing people as much as they were in route to last season's great start. Manning had to make game winning drives in order to get to that mark. I think, subconsciously, it helped teach the Colts how to win and not just because of their superior talent. Though they struggled against inferior teams at times, the only team they lost to that made the playoffs was the Dallas Cowboys. They had great wins at tough places to play as well like New England and Denver. Though I didn't jump on the bandwagon until the Chiefs game, I saw something that made me realize they were ready to make a run at the whole thing. It was their defense and running game, it was the fact they could win dominantly without having even an okay outing from Manning. You could see confidence growing in the TEAM, instead of wondering how far Manning could take them. The next two wins over Baltimore and New England were another example of great team efforts.

I heard a sportswriter make a great comparison prior to the Colts-Patriots game, he said Manning and Brady were like Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. Chamberlain always had great stats but Russell always won the rings. It seemed to make perfect sense to me. Hopefully, Manning can make this comparison untrue after this weekend.

Now, for Lovie Smith this has to be a dream come true. He is having such great success in such a relatively short time as a head coach. Consider he is the lowest paid coach in the entire league. If I'm him, I honestly have to be curious about the Dallas Cowboys opening. He could go there and get paid well to coach America's team, not a bad deal. The team is built to win now and isn't going to take years to rebuild. The Bears have to open up the checkbook as soon as possible.

Looking back, the Bears came out swinging to start the season. In the words of Dennis Green, "If you wanna crown them, go ahead crown their ass!" Ahh…such a memorable press conference. Then the Grossman woes began. As good as he played to start the year, saying he played equally bad would be putting it nicely on some occasions. Even the Bears defense seemed to loosen up a little later in the season, prompting people to jump off the bandwagon. Once the post season came though, Grossman avoided making the big mistakes and the defense was wreaking as much havoc as ever. If you don't think the Bears defense physically dominated the Saints offense, you don't know football.

Now for this game, the Colts defense has been playing inspired and should be able to contain the Bears ground attack. Grossman will have to win this game for the Bears. On the other side, we all know Manning is going to put up points no matter who is trying to stop him. Sorry Bears fans...

In the end, the Colts can win convincingly if they come out fast and make the Bears play catch up the whole night. That puts all the pressure on Grossman in the world's largest stage. Also, as I've stated before, the Colts defense is built to play with a lead and rush the passer. If the Bears score first, this is a completely different game than if the Colts score first.

Playoff Record:
7-3 ATS, 10-0 SU

Prediction:
Colts (-7) cover vs. Bears

Colts 31-21

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The newest member to SportsOverload, Chase McCracken, is giving some bonus insight on how the Super Bowl could shake up the Hobby Market. Chase will be contributing insight for all your Trading Card needs in the days to come.

Colts Market Value

Peyton Manning

Briefing: Already regarded as one of the best to ever stand under center, he is only missing one piece of the puzzle: a Super Bowl win. This is crunch time for Manning and collectors because his value could double with a win, or shrivel with a loss. If this game is the first to go into overtime in Super Bowl history, and Manning wins it…you can count on a triple up gang. The stats are probably common knowledge, but lets throw them on the table anyway:
1) Seven straight seasons with 4,000 plus yards passing (record)
2) 48 touchdown passes in one season (record)
3) Last but not least, Manning has started 150+ straight games in the NFL (Will he pass up Favre as the most hard-nosed QB ever?)

Cards to Look For: Jerseys and autographs are always fun to collect, but a high grade on a RC of one of the all-time greats is money in the bank. It is always surprising when you check population reports and find that there is a surplus of BGS 10 pristine grades in a given set. The fact is that 27 of the 1,909 ’98 Finest RC’s are in this grade. However, if you look at the SP Authentic series, there are 13 BGS 10 grades and only 725 have been graded by Beckett. You should do everything you can to get your hands on a BGS 9.5 or better Manning RC for sixty to seventy percent value because it would be an early retirement for you. One card that is tough to find, but would be one of the best investments you could possibly make, is the ’98 Stadium Club Co-Signers Manning/Marino (I’ve seen this one go for $100, but go ahead and take a gamble to get a dual autograph of the guy Manning will someday pass in touchdowns.)

Cards to Avoid: As I said before, there is no reason to pay top dollar for the ’98 Finest RC in BGS 9.5 when 27 are in a BGS 10 (500+ 9.5’s by the way). Look elsewhere in the Peyton Manning market because his hall of fame ticket has already been redeemed.

Marvin Harrison

Briefing: For Marvin Harrison, values will be at an incline in the near future. Here is why: 1) He sneaks into the Pro Bowl time and time again, making him a sure legend, and 2) people tend to focus on Manning’s ability to throw the deep ball accurately, but many of these throws would have been well out of reach if not for Harrison’s blinding speed. Rather than worshiping Manning as a God in the future, it is more likely that people will watch NFL films and say “Geez Louise…how’d he make that one work out for Peyton?” Marvin’s undisputed recognition as one of the best will come the day he retires, which is why you should also play the graded card market on him.

Cards to Look For: ’96 Bowman’s Best Atomic Refractors RC(raw or graded…they retain value very well), 2006 Absolute Memorabilia Tools of the Trade #d/25 (jersey, shoe, pants…hot card!!!), 2003 SP Game Used Patch #d/50 Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison. Basically, if you can find a “game used” Manning/Harrison combo, then don’t concern yourself with the price. This combination is sure to be a lucrative product in the future.

Cards to Avoid: There are no cards to report at this time.

Joseph Addai

As much as I like this guy in terms of his abilities, there is way too much of the story that is left to be told. He has a solid back in Dominic Rhodes to complement his speed game, so we truly don’t know how much impact this has on his upside as a back. As an individual player though? As talented as he is, I would have to say that his stuff is going for way too much. If you just can’t resist getting a piece of the action, then you need to stick with premium cards and pay CLOSE attention to the price. Here are some arrows to point you in the right direction.

Cards to Look For: 2006 Bowman Sterling Refractors autographed RC #d/199, 2006 Certified Materials RC #d/500, Certified Materials Mirror Gold #d/25 (very hot commodity).

Cards to Avoid: High dollar is a “no-no”, punishable by a slap on the wrist. Not in the sense that the card isn’t worth a lot, but what you actually pay for a good card of his. You want to take the seller by surprise on this one and get rc’s if you can, even if that means Topps Chrome or Upper Deck. The market is a volatile environment for Addai’s stuff, and that is why I recommend you wait on this particular bud to blossom before making a foolish investment.

Bears Market Value

Rex Grossman

Briefing: While people are panicking to find the Manning stuff, Grossman is really not as bad as people perceive him to be. Sure, he did have 3 single digit passer ratings this season (0.0 against Green Bay), but he’s still learning. The numbers don’t matter if you win, and Grossman has done just that with a great record as a starter. This is a perfect opportunity to snag minimal Grossman stuff because junkies in Vegas just don’t give the kid a chance. Also, you can drop your standard a bit with him because you can get quality RC’s for flea market prices. The main thing to remember here is that THE QUARTERBACK ALWAYS GETS CREDIT FOR A SUPER BOWL VICTORY!!! You can do next to nothing, and still get recognition (does the name Roethlisberger ring a bell?).

Cards to Look For: First, do everything you can to snag his Topps Pristine Refractor RC in BGS 9 or better. It is #d/499 (There are 3 different variations, but each is rarely graded high) and came from an extremely pricy pack. No better time to buy this one. Other luxury cards of his include 2003 Finest Xfractor RC #d/50, 2003 Finest Gold Refractors RC #d/50, and 2003 Playoff Contenders auto RC #d/494.

Cards to Avoid: The key here is not what to go after, but rather what you should avoid at all costs in the marketplace. Repeat after me: low serial, very sellable. Numbered low serially, autographed, and a jersey? “Bear” in mind that Grossman has a cliff to climb, so be modest in what you go after.

Thomas Jones

Briefing: Ahhhhh….yes. I’ve been waiting for this one. First of all, I would like to begin by saying that you should all buy offensive line rookies from the Bears’ roster (No, not really. It would be respectful of you though.). Thomas Jones will be one of the keys to the game because you have to attack a defense that is typically weak. The best chance for Chicago this Sunday is to do what John Madden always tells us in the video game: “Pound the football…Up the gut…Hand the ball off between the tackle and watch this…BOOM!! What a block!!!” If Lovie and the Bears have half of a brain, they will keep feeding Thomas Jones. This is a great collecting opportunity because people are selling his RC’s at low, low prices. Once again, people are obsessing over a Colts team that is up and down when they face a ferocious defense.

Cards to Look For: 2000 SP Authentic RC in BGS 8.5 or better (you normally don’t want to go this low, but Beckett is the toughest grade in the business), Bowman Chrome autographed RC #d/25, and 2006 SP Authentic Thomas Jones/Muhsin Muhammad autographs (remember that a win is a win in this game.).

Cards to Avoid: Hobbyists seem to agree that there is no weak point from a collecting standpoint on Thomas Jones. But, given the chance to get memorabilia rookies, it would probably be a better call. Don’t get unnumbered rookies; regardless of their grade!!!!!

Brian Urlacher

Briefing: The most dominate linebacker in the modern age, Urlacher continues to amaze a broad array of fans and collectors. It was difficult enough to walk in the footsteps of Dick Butkus (6 time pro-bowler), but when you add Mike Singletary (10 time pro-bowler) to the equation, it only gets more nerve racking. That is just the point that is irrelevant to Brian Urlacher: his physically dominate stature and understanding of defensive schemes makes him the best backer of the age. Mike Singletary, when interviewed about Urlacher’s value to the team, even stated, “He’s bigger, he’s taller, he’s quicker…he’s the perfect fit for this Chicago Bears system.” He was only half right though…Urlacher is the right guy for the Bears’ system!!!!!!!!

In his 7 year career, Urlacher has made the pro-bowl 6 times, which ties him with Dick Butkus. He has made a huge difference for the Chicago fan base, but has had an even greater impact on the value of defensive players. He is one of those players that doesn’t even need to be talked about; He’s simply that effective.

Cards to Look For: No doubt in the mind: it has to be the 2000 SPx auto rc #d/200 (Is going for $60-$120 dollars…SPx Spectrum is too rare to be priced, but has seen $350-$400 days in the marketplace). Here is the reason that it is the one to get: One of the first years that a jersey and an autograph were stamped on the prestigious SPx label. I’m done talking about this card now…there are 2000 of them. Hurry up!!!!

Cards to Avoid: The Bowman Chrome was a great card of his, but it saw way too much action in the grading industry to ever gain much value. The price fluctuates, but it’s just too high of a risk investment wise to buy into it (even if it is a BGS 10…be weary). Also, go to your local gas station so that you can dowse your collector’s edge stuff and set it ablaze. They look cool, but your time could be better spent collecting pennies and nickels on the side of the road. That’s all folks.

February 1, 2007

 

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