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Monday Night Special: Miami vs. Florida State
By Ron Jumper

This weekend had its moments that drive even a gambling man like me crazy. There were plenty of perfect examples why gambling on sports should just be a hobby. My picks have been solid so far, going 5-3-1 in the first 9 games. However, it could very easily be 7-2 instead. Truly, I'm just glad I didn't break anything or hurt anyone's feelings in a rage of cursing and flipping out due to the inevitably, unpredictable nature of college football. So before I unveil the Miami-Florida State Winner, I'm going to go over my picks for the week in case you missed the games.

PROTRADE

Boston College( -11.5) vs. Central Michigan

Boston College was ahead 17-3 at halftime, so I'm thinking I got this in the bag. Then, they get up 31-10 and look to be in cruise control. Then, as if the gambling Gods wanted to mock me, Central Michigan went on scoring surge to score 14 straight points to lose 31-24 and cover the spread. I nearly broke a lot of nice furniture. Lost

Nevada ( +12.5) vs. Fresno State

Nevada did exactly what I hoped they would do. Wolfpack QB Jeff Rowe made enough plays to keep the game close. Fresno State's offense will be a force to reckon with as the season goes on, they just had a lot of new pieces to put in place. Nevada lost but covered the spread, just as I predicted. Won $10.50

Michigan (-26.5) vs. Vanderbilt

Besides the fact this was the dullest game I watched this weekend, I also realized both these teams were not very good. I felt that Michigan was going to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make a statement against an SEC opponent. As it turns out, the Wolverines came out as flat as a pancake and came away with a 27-7 victory over a very bad Vanderbilt team to just miss the spread. Lost

Idaho (+29.5) vs. Michigan State

The combination of Michigan State underestimating their opponent and Idaho just being flat out better than they were last season caused the game to be a lot closer. Idaho's new head coach Dennis Erickson has already made great improvements to the Vandal football program. Playing withing 10 points of a Big Ten school in your season opener is very impressive, also as impressive is the fact I wrote about how he would do it 2 months ago and sure enough it happened. Won $10.50

Tennessee (-1) vs. California

The Vols needed this victory very badly and just simply manhandled Cal. Whether it was in the air or on the ground, Cal just had no answer. Fulmer saved his job for another week at least by winning big in the season opener. Don't sleep on Cal though, they will probably still win 9 or 10 games this season because they are in PAC-10. They aren't physical enough for the SEC but, in the PAC-10, they are a physical team. Won $21

Florida (-20) vs. Southern Miss

The Gators got off to a very slow start but finished strong to cover the spread. Southern Miss will be a very solid team in a game or two, they just have to get their new QB going. With an always strong defense and TE Shawn Nelson to throw to, you can be sure the Golden Eagles will come around and make a run at the Conference USA Championship. The Gators appear to be on the same level as the rest of the SEC. Won $21

Arkansas (+8.5) vs. USC

My apologies for the homer pick. I'm from Arkansas and I was at the game, so I couldn't bring myself to bet on the Trojans. On the flip side, if Felix Jones doesn't fumble 3 times in the first half this game could have been completely different. The defense held USC when it was supposed to, but the Trojans had a short field time and time again. By the end of the night, that defense was worn out. The silver lining is that Arkansas may have found the QB of the future in true freshman Mitch Mustain, who has already been named starter for next week's game. Lost

Ole Miss (-3) vs. Memphis

I was very impressed with Ole Miss QB Brent Shaeffer. I was very impressed with Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis. I was even impressed with the toughness Memphis showed to bounce back time and again to keep the game close. All that being said, I nearly pulled my hair out. With the score being 28-17, as I predicted exactly, I felt as though there was no way I couldn't cover the spread. However, Memphis not only scores another touchdown but converts the 2-point conversion to make the score 28-25, thus resulting in a tie. This is why gambling should only be a hobby, you can't help but die young due to stress. Tie $5.50 Refund

TCU (-7) vs. Baylor

With the Horned Frogs' top offensive performers out and the offensive failing to score a single point in the first half, it was only natural to worry. One play changed it all, backup freshman QB Marcus Jackson threw an 84-yard strike to Aaron Brown to put TCU up 10-7 in the 3rd quarter. From that point on, TCU looked like an inspired team from that point as they escaped with a 17-7 victory. Won $10.50

New Balance: $213

PYP@eastbay.com

Florida State vs. Miami:

When you have a game of this magnitude and closeness in talent, most would consider this game a toss-up. Neither team has much difference in returning starters, nor has it mattered who was at home. In season openers, there is also a tendency to look at the quarterback position. In this case, both teams return their starting quarterbacks and both QB's were very up and down all season. So that marks that out. The next thing to look at is which coach needs it more. Bobby Bowden has been told he doesn't have it anymore and it is very clear that Larry Coker is under pressure to turn things around so how do you say who needs this more? That leaves just one thing to determine the outcome, who has the best playmakers? The clear answer here is Florida State. This Seminole team has more speed and athleticism than it knows what to do with. Lorenzo Booker should provide a game-changing play or two on offense. On defense, expect Buster Davis to reak havoc on the Hurricane offense.

Prediction: Florida State 24-21

Risk $11 to Win $10

Recommended Sportsbook: BetUs.com

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September 3, 2006

 

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