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The NFL Draft is Almost Here
By Ron Jumper
The NFL Draft is almost upon us and with that comes all the excitement of trying to figure out who the next superstar is going to be. The problem is that even the experts rarely get it right.
One of the biggest reasons for wrongly evaluating players is the NFL combine. Just because they can run the 40 yard dash, shuffle through cones, and bench 225 pounds a certain amount of times, it doesn’t determine if they are destined for stardom or to cross the border to Canada. Can you imagine if other sports relied so heavily on a combine. What if basketball had a combine and did several different drills to see how good each player was. Players could shoot 100 threes and free throws for their shooting rating. For ball handling, they could weave in and out of chairs stationed on the court. Lastly, there could be a series of plyometric exercises like vertical jump, defensive slides, and quick feet. That would be interesting to see but wouldn’t be a good indicator of how good a prospect is or is going to be.
Now for thoughts on this years crop of talent:
Quarterbacks- This is probably one of the deepest talent pools of gunslingers in years. The marquee names include Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler. The name you hadn’t heard but should know is Omar Jacobs from Bowling Green. During his sophomore year he threw 41 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. This is an interesting year because all three of the marquee quarterbacks have been named the best of the bunch and all three have been said to be probable busts by at least one expert or reporter. Personally, I would have to take Matt Leinart first, followed by Jay Cutler, and, to most people’s surprise, Omar Jacobs instead of Vince Young. Leinart will be the superstar of the bunch, while Cutler and Jacobs are more likely to become those intangible quarterbacks who aren’t great but seem to win games. Young, on the other hand, just doesn’t appear to have the makeup of a successful NFL quarterback. Michael Vick is a faster and has a much better throwing motion but even all his intangibles have taken time to mature into a efficient quarterback.
Running Backs- As usual, there are plenty of running backs that appear to be can’t miss prospects. Reggie Bush, Lendale White, and Deangelo Williams all appear to be the next batch of talented running backs. Bush is the most exciting and has the most potential of anyone in the whole draft. White is a power back that should be a big help to any team that he goes to whether it be as an everydown back or a short yardage back. Deangelo Williams is probably the most prototype running back as far size, speed, and endurance. Brian Calhoun, of Wisconsin, is a safe pick in the second round. De’Arrius Howard, of Arkansas, is an intriguing prospect because he never really got the chance to show what he could do in college even though he possesses all the tools necessary.
Wide Receivers- This isn’t a deep talent pool of wideouts but there could be some hidden gems. Mike Haas, of Oregon State, will continue to surprise people with his deceptive speed and exceptional route running. He reminds me a lot of Ed McCaffrey or Joe Jurevicious. Santanio Holmes, of Ohio State, has the best playmaking ability and overall speed. There probably aren’t any Pro Bowlers in this draft at the wideout position.
Tight End- As far as the draft goes, tight ends don’t typically get the headlines but this draft has a couple of very intriguing prospects. Vernon Davis, of Maryland, has the all the intangibles. Whoever gets him may actually end up with a better building block for the future than whoever drafts Bush or Leinart. Leonard Pope, of Georgia, is another very talented prospect with great size and catching ability.
Offensive Line- D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Marcus McNeil are locks at the tackle positions. Both should be building blocks for any team that drafts them. There doesn’t appear to be any first rounders at the guard and center positions but those positions tend to be more of value picks in the later rounds.
Defensive Line- By far the best talent at the defensive end position in a long time. Mario Williams coming out of NC State has to be one of the best DE prospects since Julius Peppers. He is followed by Mathias Kiwanuka from Boston College, Tamba Hali from Penn State, and Elvis Dumervil from Louisville. Any of these 4 have the potential to be the best defensive player in the draft.
Linebackers- There is a lot of depth at outside linebacker in this draft, headlined by A.J. Hawk of Ohio State. He will be that guy you can build your linebacking corps around for the next decade. He probably won’t be like an Urlacher or Merriman but should be a borderline Pro Bowler every year. Chad Greenway of Iowa, Ernie Sims of Florida State, and Demeco Ryans of Alabama are all safe linebacker picks. Even Hawk’s teammate Bobby Carpenter should be a solid linebacker wherever he ends up.
Cornerbacks- This group is headlined by Michael Huff of Texas. Another good prospect is Jimmy Williams of Virginia Tech, who I feel will eventually switch to safety and become a Pro Bowler. There are several players who would make value picks, including: Demario Minter of Georgia and Charles Gordon of Kansas
Safeties- The safest pick in this group is probably Jason Allen of Tennessee. Donte Whitner of Ohio State is probably the best “prospect.” Great value picks will be Daniel Bullock of Nebraska and Roman Harper of Alabama.
Now I’m going to take a look at the first ten picks and check out some likely scenarios.
1.Houston- Reggie Bush, RB USC The Texans pretty much have no other way to go at this point. This is a franchise that needs to get a lot better fast. They are no where near where they are supposed to be at this point. They already have invested a lot in David Carr so drafting a quarterback just isn’t an option and there isn’t a wide receiver good enough to draft that high so Bush is the safest choice. Do you really want to be the team that passes on Bush?
2. New Orleans- Mario Williams, DE NC State He is the best defensive end prospect since Julius Peppers. The Saints have already signed Drew Brees at quarterback so no real need to add another. The second pick is too high for the remaining running backs so adding a playmaker on defense is the best option.
3. Tennessee- Matt Leinart, QB USC This pick makes perfect sense to me. Steve McNair is aging and retirement appears to be looming. Leinart would provide a marketable name for them and help put fans in the seats for the small market Titans. He has a Carson Palmer-like situation in which he could get to sit and watch before he gets out on the field. Also, when he does Tennessee would be pretty close to having a very competitive team.
4. New York Jets- D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T Virginia They would love to trade up for Bush or Leinart but in this scenario they are just going to have to take care of their needs on the offensive line. Ferguson is the best offensive lineman in the draft, as well as being a very safe pick.
5. Green Bay- Vernon Davis, TE Maryland This is the safest pick for them right now because of pending future roster changes. If Brett Favre comes back obviously he doesn’t want another young quarterback to baby sit. A.J. Hawk would be a nice pick but they are in negotiations with Lavar Arrington so that is too much money to have invested in linebackers. Davis could end up being a lot like Tony Gonzalez so drafting a tight end at #5 isn’t so crazy.
6. San Francisco- Lendale White, RB USC This is a pick that, in my eyes, the 49ers have to make. He is a relatively local guy from USC. His ability to run in between the tackles should do wonders for young quarterback Alex Smith. Smith struggled greatly last year and needs pieces like White to make his load a little easier.
7. Oakland- Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt I think he is the perfect quarterback for the Raiders. He isn’t flashy and he works hard to prove people wrong. A high profile quarterback is always going to have conflicts with Randy Moss so having a guy like Cutler is a perfect fit. They signed Aaron Brooks in free agency and I normally wouldn’t say it was a good idea to take another quarterback but sometimes you have no idea what your going to get with Brooks.
8. Buffalo- Vince Young, QB Texas The safest place for him to go, in my opinion, because the Bills don’t have a high dollar quarterback or a lot of pressure to win right away. Young isn’t going to come out and be successful early so having a couple years to develop would be ideal for him.
9. Detroit- A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio State This pick would seem to go along with the how the Lions usually draft and take the best available prospect on the board. Hawk will be a stud wherever he goes so even playing in Detroit shouldn’t prevent him from a prosperous career.
10. Arizona- Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Boston College I just love his upside and playmaking ability. I know most people wouldn’t take him in the top ten but the Cardinals would be smart to take him when he is available. With the addition of Edgerin James the Cardinals seem to be on the verge of being respectable so adding a presence on the defensive line would be a great addition.
April 18, 2006
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