|
Posts Tagged ‘Power Rankings’
Wednesday, October 21st, 2009
By Ron Jumper
With just under a week until the NBA kicks off, I wanted to give the betting public a preview of each team by offering my Power Rankings. The NBA once again had a busy off-season, with moves all over the place that I must address. How will Ron Artest fit in with the Los Angeles Lakers? Does Rasheed Wallace put the Celtics right back into title contention? What should we expect from Shaq and LeBron? Does Vince Carter make the Magic better or worse? I went through all those questions and still haven’t even mentioned the Spurs, who always seem to fly under the radar. Where do the Spurs fall in my power rankings? You’ll have to read and see…
With these rankings, it is important to understand the meaning behind them. In the West, the Lakers are the top team but, after that, there is a seven-team cluster that could make their case for being an elite team in the Western Conference. I have 8 of the top 13 teams from the West. Over to the East, they have three elite teams: Celtics, Magic, and Cavs. After that, the Atlanta Hawks are not quite “elite” but they are clearly better than the rest of the Eastern Conference. Then it gets difficult, teams 5 through 10 are very close and could all make or miss the playoffs. The reason I want to clarify this is because a team could be lower in the rankings then some would like, but it doesn’t mean I’m down on them. For instance, I have the Raptors ranked 19th because they are the 10th team in the East but, because teams 5 to 10 in the East are so close, I don’t look at them as that far behind the Bulls (ranked 12th overall). So chill out Raptor fans, crazy Canadians…
NBA Power Rankings:
1. Boston Celtics
Last season didn’t go as planned, with Kevin Garnett being injured and an early playoff exit thanks to the Orlando Magic. (By the way, I loved every second of the Magic upsetting the Celtics in the playoffs last season because I got so much heat for taking the Magic to upset the Celtics from fellow colleagues. I still have a warm place in my heart for Orlando. I won’t forget you…) Back to this season’s Celtics, I don’t think the addition of Rasheed Wallace has received enough attention but that is the best move they could have possibly made. How else could they get better without giving up one of the “Big Three” or going over the salary cap? Look at that starting five: PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, C Rasheed Wallace. That is nasty, simply no other way to put it.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The question is simple and, after 20 games or so, we should be close to knowing the answer. How will Artest fit in with Lakers? For me, I played in the triangle offense in college, I know both how complex it is to learn and how only certain players can thrive in that kind of offense. Artest is not a great outside shooter nor is he a great passer. Those are the two main ingredients if you are going to excel in the triangle. That is why I give the edge to Boston as the best team in the league. The Lakers are still the best team in the West but that may not translate to another championship ring.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Shhhh!! Don’t tell anyone! The Spurs are still really good and they got a lot better this off-season. They brought in Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess, plus drafted DeJuan Blair. They will be very good if Manu and Timmy stay healthy.
4. Orlando Magic
Obviously, I don’t have the Magic projected to make the NBA Finals again. However, I still like this team. The thing is that they will not be the same team from last season. They used to be a matchup nightmare by spreading the floor with four shooters and Howard. Now, this team has arguably the deepest squad 1-12 of any team in the league but it is a more traditional lineup. Vince Carter is a bigger “star” but they will have to endure the 15-20 games a year he takes off and shoots jumpshots. Fortunately, for the first time in VC’s career, he has other guys that can pick up the slack in Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson. Expect the Magic to be different, but still very good. Brandon Bass was a steal.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are the latest team to try out the Shaq experiment, sometimes it works (Miami) and sometimes it doesn’t (Phoenix). With LeBron James and the rest of the Cavs, they won’t be below 60 wins regardless. The question is can Shaq get them over the hump in the playoffs? I say no…
6. Portland Trail Blazers
I love teams that don’t change up the roster much, especially young teams. This bunch has had time to develop continuity and, in my mind, is capable of hanging with the big boys night in and night out. Andre Miller is a warrior and will help this basketball team. I have said for years that Andre Miller was the most underrated player in the NBA. The 76ers teams that he led to the playoffs were terrible before he got there and they had guys like Allen Iverson and Chris Webber on the roster. To simplify, those 76er teams lost 2 future Hall of Famers and added Miller, yet somehow got better. You do the math.
7. Utah Jazz
The simple truth to the Jazz is two-fold, staying healthy and staying under the salary cap. They have decisions to make whether or not to keep guys like Ronnie Brewer and, if they decide to clear salary cap, this ranking will drop. If not, and they can stay relatively healthy, this is a very good basketball team.
8. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets had a perfect season last year, can they really keep that pace up again this season? I like them to be good but I am curious if Nene can stay healthy and J.R. Smith can stay in the good graces of the coaching staff. Either way, they will hover around 50 wins or so.
9. Atlanta Hawks
I love this roster from top to bottom. From drafting Jeff Teague to picking up unheralded banger Jason Collins. I don’t like Jamal Crawford and, over time, expect him to work his way out of the rotation and be moved somewhere else. Regardless, they are deeper and better than last season, as well as having more playoff experience.
10. Phoenix Suns
This is a new look Suns that hopes to get back to the good old days of running and gunning. They still have Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Jason Richardson, and Grant Hill. I love the additions of Channing Frye and Earl Clark.
11. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs got better, I do believe so. None the less, they still have the same problems. They don’t have an inside presence and Kidd will struggle to defend elite point guards. I also am curious how Josh Howard and Shawn Marion will coexist, as they seem to play a similar role. Then, to go even further, I wonder what lineup the Mavs will go to, as I’m not sure how you can have Howard, Marion, and Nowitzki on the floor at the same time without playing Dirk at the five and going small.
12. Chicago Bulls
Simply put, this team made some great moves last season and now they have had the opportunity to go through training camp together and develop chemistry. I’m expecting good things from this Bulls squad.
13. New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets are a very good team, despite being ranked this low. I like the addition of Emeka Okafor, who should have a career year. However, it is hard to see them making noise in the postseason without adding more fire power.
14. Washington Wizards
This is the wildcard of my power rankings, as they have so much talent from top to bottom. Arenas could finally be healthy again, they got Randy Foye and Mike Miller at a bargain rate. Watch out for this club.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
I think they will miss Andre Miller, so it will be interesting to see how Lou Williams develops this season. I also want to see how they use Elton Brand. They have Dalembert at the 5, Brand at the 4, then don’t forget Thaddeus Young and the other AI. The problem I have is can they be successful with all those guys on the floor at the same time? Can they run with that lineup? Is that enough outside shooting to keep the floor balanced?
16. Detroit Pistons
No team overhauled their roster more than the Pistons. One thing that I believe will help is that team captain Richard Hamilton and new guys Ben Gordon and Charlie V all played at UConn. They like each other, they want to play together. Trust me, that matters.
17. Golden State Warriors
This is the same Warriors team, plenty of scoring and no defense. Also, not quite sure how Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis will co-exist.
18. Miami Heat
Dwyane Wade will keep them competitive but they lack the talent to consistently win games.
19. Toronto Raptors
The addition of Hedu Turkoglu is nice, as he fits the international flavor. However, can this team defend?
20. Houston Rockets
This team took a serious hit, whether or not they are competitive may depend on Aaron Brooks and Trevor Ariza.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder
This is my favorite team in the league, though they are one more year away from being a playoff team. James Harden was just another good draft pick by GM Sam Presti.
22. Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger has emerged as a stud, though I always knew he would be out of New Mexico. Reports suggest Roy Hibbert is vastly improved and I expect Tyler Hansbrough to become a fan favorite.
23. Los Angeles Clippers
Blake Griffin appears poised to be the next Karl Malone. If Baron Davis is healthy/happy and the young guns (Eric Gordon and Al Thornton) keep developing, this team should be fun to watch.
24. Charlotte Bobcats
Not expecting good things in Charlotte this season. They still haven’t settled point guard situation, as I doubt this team can ever thrive with both Felton and Augustin on the roster.
25. New Jersey Nets
I have to say I like this young roster more than any other bottom dweller. Devin Harris is a stud and Brook Lopez could be on his way to being a top center in the league. Not to mention, guys like Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams could be nice players as well some day.
26. Memphis Grizzlies
On paper, this team is actually very talented but I don’t think they can get this jumbled up bunch of scorers to play together or play defense.
27. New York Knicks
Still not a quality team, they pushed their chips all in for this off-season’s free agent sweepstakes.
28. Sacramento Kings
Not a fan of where the Kings are going, they could have gotten more out of the draft and I don’t know if Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin will play well together.
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a team that could have gotten better, stop to think about it. They were playing a little better prior to Al Jefferson going down, then they trade last year’s starting backcourt (Randy Foye and Mike Miller) for Ricky Rubio. Then they draft Johnny Flynn and go out and sign Ramon Sessions. What if they had kept Foye and Miller, then drafted a big man like Jordan Hill or a nice swingman like DeMar DeRozan? Wouldn’t that have been better? They still could have signed Ramon Sessions or maybe then not have traded Ty Lawson, whom they drafted with the 18th pick in the draft. This was the deepest class of point guards arguably in the history of the NBA draft and you draft two in the top 6 when you still have picks 18 and 28 in the first round? I’ll never understand what is going on in Minnesota. I like Kurt Rambis and wish him the best, but it is going to be a long, dark road to relevance in the Western Conference.
30. Milwaukee Bucks
Ladies and gentlemen, I’m proud to present this year’s “We don’t even care, we just want to save money and collect ping pong balls” team! Truthfully, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they moved Michael Redd or Andrew Bogut by February.
Tags: NBA, Power Rankings, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NBA | Comments Off
Sunday, August 23rd, 2009
By Ron Jumper
When the new top 25 polls come out, handicappers should pay close attention and determine the value of each team on their own. There is always some major differences in how the polls rank the teams and how the oddsmakers value each team when determining the lines every week. Here is how I would rank the top 25 teams and value them accordingly when setting the lines. You’ll disagree with a lot of them, but that’s how I like it. Public perception, or misperception really, is how I find value.
If you want to go look at the rankings and decide for yourself how good you think each team is, here is a simple way to approach it. Bring up a top 25 poll, go through each team and pretend they are playing the team ranked behind them in a game on a neutral field. Ask yourself who would win, if the team you think would win is ranked higher move on to the next team. If not, adjust the rankings until it makes sense to you.
1. Florida Gators
Okay, so I’m not going out on a limb here. However, as of right now, there is no other way to go for the top spot. Tim Tebow is back and so is the entire defense. The SEC needs the Gators to make it to another national championship, as I don’t see anyone else in the SEC being capable of making a run. There is a huge jumble of teams vying for the second spot in the SEC. More on that later…
2. Oklahoma Sooners
After giving Texas much consideration, I settled on the Sooners. They are so talented and, despite losing the offensive line, I still see them being the best team in the Big 12. Last year, I was big on several teams because of the offensive line returning intact and that didn’t turn out so well. This year, I look at a team like Oklahoma and know there is still going to be talent and experience on that line, as they have been recruiting elite prospects from top to bottom all over the roster for years. It is most important that they have a veteran quarterback at the helm, a great coaching staff, and talent all over the roster that few can match.
3. Texas Longhorns
If Texas just had an elite running back that would take pressure off of Colt McCoy, that would go a long way for me to bump them up ahead of Oklahoma. Also, I still think they need an elite pass catcher, either at wide receiver or tight end. Jordan Shipley is a good player, but I’m not expecting to see him shine on Sundays. The defense is good, returning mostly intact except for Brian Orakpo. Sergio Kindle will help Longhorns try to forget Orakpo, though that is easier said than done.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
This is a hard team to predict, as we know they are talented from top to bottom. However, can they replace a senior quarterback and a veteran offensive line? If they get by Virginia Tech early and get their feet wet prior to SEC play, this team will be tough to stop by the end of the season. They have to play at Ole Miss, the other SEC West candidate, and that game will have serious postseason implications. I am anxious to watch Greg McElroy play at quarterback because, if he excels, this team could be a tough out for anyone in the country.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
Here is where my list takes an interesting turn. The Hokies have a really tough game against Alabama on a “neutral” field in Atlanta to start the season. After that, whether they win or not, I don’t see VT losing another game. They should win the ACC and be 12-1 overall, which usually gives you consideration for the national championship game. I would be even bolder if they still had running back Darren Evans, as he was becoming a very good young player. The defense is nasty, led by Kam Chancellor, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor is ready to step up and be the consistent playmaker he needs to be.
6. Southern Cal Trojans
I’m not as big on USC as others, I’m a little concerned about the QB situation and the defense. It doesn’t really matter which QB it is, but how long will it take for him to get going? We know the Trojans have young talent on defense, but how quickly will guys be able to step in and be consistent? I have USC ranked the highest in the Pac-10, but just barely. I won’t be surprised if Cal, Oregon, or Oregon State takes a run at the conference. This is a team I would watch closely early.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Big 12 is very top heavy, but the Cowboys could just as easily win the conference championship as anyone else. They have the trio of Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, and Dez Bryant on offense, making them as dynamic as any offense in the country. If the defense can step up in big games, this is a team that can play with anyone. If not, it could be more of the same as the Cowboys struck out against Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech last season.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are the best team in the Big Ten, just a notch above Penn State. I’m not sure who Terrell Pryor is going to throw to, but I’m also not sure it matters. Jim Tressel is not going to air it out all over the field 40+ times. This offense will try to run the ball traditionally first, then put the ball in Pryor’s hands to make things happen. I see the ball being spread around among playmakers. On defense, they lost some big time players but the system is in place and the defense is still talented from top to bottom. I have USC ahead of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes can win that game at home early in the season.
9. California Bears
I really like Cal, despite what anyone else says. I like the quarterback situation better, as now Kevin Riley is without question the man. Jahvid Best is an elite running back that can stretch the field. On defense, the entire defensive line is back and the entire secondary is back. However, they lost a lot at linebacker so that could be a question mark. The schedule sets up pretty well, with USC and Oregon State at home but they do have to play at Oregon. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they won the Pac-10.
10. Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels benefit from the easiest schedule possible for an SEC team. They play 4 cupcakes in the non-conference then they get LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas all at home. Oh, by the way, they don’t play Florida or Georgia either. If you are a Rebels fan, life is good. That isn’t to say this team doesn’t have talent, Jevan Snead is a very good quarterback and James Hardy is an elite defensive end prospect.
Tags: NCAA, picks, Power Rankings, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NCAAF | Comments Off
Sunday, August 9th, 2009
By Ron Jumper
So I already ranked teams 1-16 Here, just in case you missed it. Now it is time to move on to the bottom half of the league. That isn’t to say they aren’t important, as you might have noticed no one from NFC West has been in the rankings yet so that guarantees someone from this list will make the postseason. Also, keeping up with the bottom dwellers is usually a great way to find value each week, especially on the totals.
17. Baltimore Ravens
While some would say this is low, I think they will take a step back this season. The defense will be good but not dominant. The offense still doesn’t have enough fire power to generate many points themselves, as field position and turnovers provided by the defense were a big part of how the Ravens generated offense in 2008. Looking at it plain and simple, an above average defense and a below average offense make the 2009 Baltimore Ravens… well… about average. Expect 8-8 or 9-7 from the Ravens this season.
18. Seattle Seahawks
Some would say that I’m crazy having the Seahawks this high, but this team is still very talented when healthy. Before the additions of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Aaron Curry, just being healthy makes this team the most talented in the weak NFC West. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t done just yet and I don’t think the running back combo of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett is that bad. The defense still has playmakers, especially defensive end Patrick Kerney. I think they are clearly ahead of the Rams and 49ers, and just a notch above the Cardinals.
19. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins caught the world by storm in 2008, but that won’t happen again. Teams will figure out the “Wildcat” after having an off-season to study up. Opponents will crowd the box and force the Dolphins to beat them through the air, particularly down the field. You probably know where I’m going… Chad Pennington is more of a West Coast, dink-and-dunk quarterback and, at this point, Ted Ginn, Jr. hasn’t been as dynamic as Dolphins faithful have hoped. The defense is solid in the front seven, but the secondary is awfully young. I think both Vontae Davis and Sean Smith will be very good one day, but it is asking a lot from just rookies.
20. Arizona Cardinals
I think we have to be careful not to overvalue the Cardinals. They were only 9-7 in the weak NFC West. Yes, they got hot in the playoffs and Larry Fitzgerald played out of this world but we need to stay reasonable. Warner is old and usually unable to put back-to-back great seasons together or stay healthy for 16 games. The biggest key that no one talks about is that they let Edgerin James go. When Tim Hightower was the feature back late in the regular season… lets just say it didn’t go well. I don’t think the defense got better this offseason and may have actually taken a step back. Don’t forget they have new coordinators. Oh and that whole Super Bowl loser jinx…
21. Washington Redskins
It is tough to play in the NFC East, but I could see the Redskins finishing higher in my power rankings. The defense could potentially be dominant, as they were very solid overall last season. With an upgraded pass rush, the sacks and turnovers should go up. Also, having some continuity on offense by having the same system in place for consecutive years should really help Jason Campbell. There are question marks, like the health of Clinton Portis, but this is a team that could be very good.
22. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are not as bad as some people think, but the playoffs are a stretch. With the weapons they have at the skill positions, Kyle Orton will be able to just not make mistakes and spread the ball around. The defense will struggle again, as they should have focused on that side of the ball more with their recent draft. As it is, they still have holes to fill but they just might be a little better than the experts think.
23. Buffalo Bills
This is one of the hardest teams to figure out, as if they can survive some growing pains early they might be pretty good. The offensive line is brand new, likely to start a couple of rookies. Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games. Oh, and didn’t they sign some guy named Terrell Owens? This is without question a boom or bust team in 2009. If the defense can stay healthy and improve the pass rush, they might be pretty good. If the offensive line can get it together and T.O. can stay calm, the offense does have weapons. Those are big “Ifs” so my fingers are crossed…
24. New York Jets
Mark Sanchez is going to have to survive the pressure of being a highly drafted quarterback in New York. That can be tough, with so much pressure to excel quickly thanks to Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. The rest of this team is solid, except maybe at receiver. I love the running backs and offensive line, and the defense is loaded with high dollar players that had better perform admirably. In a tough division with a rookie QB, I see the Jets underachieving this season. Around 7-9 or maybe 8-8 seems about right.
25. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are another team waiting in the weeds to sneak back into the playoff picture. Carson Palmer is an elite QB when healthy, the defense is much better than people think, and Chad Ochocinco seems to be primed for a big season. However, they need help on the offensive line and I’m not sold on Cedric Benson. This team has potential to be explosive on a few Sundays, but I’m not sure they are built to sustain success over 16 games.
26. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are hopeful they can have a good season. I see why they are optimistic, but I still have concerns. I think they lack a proven quarterback and explosive weapons at receiver. The defense is improving but not quite ready to make their way into the top 10. In short, they will be better but not quite ready to be consistent each week.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last season, the Bucs raced to a 9-3 start and were being talked about with the top teams in league. Then, 4 embarrassing losses later, Monte Kiffin follows his son to Knoxville, Jon Gruden is fired, and icon Derrick Brooks is cut. To put it mildly, things will be different in 2009. As you can see, I don’t have them ranked last but, because that schedule is so tough, they just might finish the season with the worst record. I only see a game or two that they might be the favorite. Whether it is Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, or Josh Freeman, the offense is going to struggle to attack through the air. The offensive line and running backs are solid, but the passing game is inferior and the defense is loaded with youth and question marks.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
This is a unique team, as they will probably have a couple of games where Matt Cassell is throwing some nice balls and Todd Haley will be slicing and dicing the defense. However, most weeks, we’ll see a young defense and inconsistent running game lead to losses. If Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson can wreak havoc like they did in college together at LSU, plus maybe another receiver steps up, then they might have hope.
29. Cleveland Browns
The Browns tried to trade pretty much the entire roster, as well as a new coaching staff coming into the dog pound. It is hard to figure what kind of season they are going to have, as we still have to figure out who the quarterback is going to be for starters. Jamal Lewis looked old last year, so the running game could be interesting to say the least. I’m not sure how the wide receiving core is going to shake out, as Edwards greatly underachieved last season, Donte Stallworth has been in and out of jail, they traded Kellen Winslow, Jr., and they drafted two receivers in the second round of the draft. Trying to sort all that out and project can give you a headache…
30. St. Louis Rams
The Rams have a long way to go, as they are rail thin at wide receiver and along the defense. They have made an effort to upgrade the offensive line, we’ll see how good Jason Smith and that new unit can be. There is always Steven Jackson, who is so talented but you never what you are going to get from week to week. If that line overachieves and Jackson stays… happy… then the offense might be okay. As it is, I think they are still the worst team in the bad NFC West.
31. Oakland Raiders
Amazingly, the Raiders have talent and could be a decent team if they could start doing things the right way from here on out. Despite the bad drafts and poor free agent signings, this team has an elite cover corner (Nnamdi Asomugha), nice depth at running back (McFadden, Fargas, and Bush), and a coach who actually appears to want to be there. They’ve invested too much money in JaMarcus Russell, but playing Jeff Garcia would make them a much better football team. It won’t happen, barring something unusual, but Garcia is a great leader and playmaker.
32. Detroit Lions
And last but certainly not…well actually they are least. The Lions had a long way to go and they made marginal strides. I don’t think that offensive line is going to hold up, making it even harder for Mathew Stafford whenever that day comes they hand him the keys. The secondary is depleted and, after Calvin Johnson, the receivers are not anything to write home about. The NFC North improved this offseason, making it even tougher on the Lions. I expect another long season in Detroit.
Tags: NFL, Power Rankings, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NFL | Comments Off
|
|
