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Posts Tagged ‘Bowl Picks’
Thursday, December 31st, 2009
By Ron Jumper
Bowl Picks: Part Two Here
The final installment of bowl picks is here and ready to go, including the BCS National Championship between Alabama and Texas. Since I last posted bowl picks, the SEC hadn’t really begun playing yet. There are 14 picks in this installment of bowl picks, with seven involving SEC teams. For those that struggle with mental math, half the games involve an SEC team. Overall, 10 SEC teams qualified for a bowl game! Simply put, that speaks volumes on multiple levels about the strength of the mighty SEC. Examining my picks, you might notice a familiar trend within that same logic. Take a look for yourself.
Auburn (-7.5) covers vs. Northwestern
Tigers offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is excellent at using the additional preparation time to his advantage, as his teams outscored their bowl opponents 108-20 in his two seasons as OC at Tulsa before coming to Auburn this season. Northwestern is going to be outclassed physically, as is usually the case, but the added pressure of trying to prepare for this offense seems like too much to overcome.
Florida State (+3) covers vs. West Virginia
For me, this becomes very simple. On one hand, we have Bobby Bowden’s last game as head coach of the Seminoles. On the other hand, we have the coaching equivalent of a permanent brain fart in Mountaineer head coach Bill Stewart. I think this one is pretty simple…
LSU (+3) covers vs. Penn State
Why is Penn State the favorite? Someone explain this to me please, I need to know. On what planet do people think Penn State is better than LSU? The Nittany Lions have no quality wins to speak of and struggled against “powerhouses” like Iowa and Ohio State to the tune of a combined score of 45 to 17. LSU is much more battle tested, has the speed to get after Darryl Clark, and should be able to establish the running game early.
Ohio State (+4.5) covers vs. Oregon
While I understand the thought that the Big Ten is well… the Big Ten and will struggle against the speed of Oregon. However, I don’t look at it that way, I see a coach that has been through it all before in Jim Tressell and a first year head coach in Chip Kelly. I also see a one-dimensional offense going against a dominant run defense. I like the Buckeyes to not only show up, but look good doing it.
Florida (-12) covers vs. Cincinnati
This is an unprecedented situation to handicap, as I can not think of a remotely similar situation. However, the one constant is Tim Tebow and the fact that is his last game makes it tough to be against him. The Bearcats can’t handle the Gators up front and they will grind out yards all day on the ground. As for the Cincinnati offense, the Gators have the corners to matchup with Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns, plus the Bearcats are not only without former head coach Brian Kelly but offensive coordinator Jeff Quinn also jumped ship for Buffalo.
South Florida (-6.5) covers vs. Northern Illinois
The basic logic here to me is that the Bulls are the better team from the better conference. I am a fan of Northern Illinois, as they have shown the ability to rise to the occasion against superior competition. However, B.J. Daniels will make too many plays running and throwing on offense and the defensive line will harass an already dreadful Huskies passing attack.
South Carolina (-4.5) covers vs. UConn
The Gamecocks are the more physical team up front and have a huge advantage in overall talent. This will be the biggest and strongest team the Huskies have faced all season long, but it will also be one of the more talented teams as well behind possibly Cincinnati and Pitt. Normally, UConn has a way of hanging around and making games ugly but they are simply outmatched in this one.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) covers vs. Ole Miss
I hate picking against the SEC but Houston Nutt tends to buck the trend. Nutt has always done the opposite of what is expected, if there is hype then he busts and if there are no expectations then he excels. Here, the Rebels are the favorite so that means take Oklahoma State…
Arkansas (-7.5) covers vs. East Carolina
I feel extremely confident about this matchup, as the Hogs are basically playing a home game in Memphis. The Hogs are just 7-5 but they competed against the likes of Florida, LSU, and Georgia down to the wire so that is misleading. For the Pirates, they don’t have the offense to keep up if this game should get up into the high 30’s or 40’s. The Hogs defense isn’t dominant by any means, but even they will be able to slow down an ECU offense that really doesn’t strike fear into too many opponents.
Michigan State (+8) covers vs. Texas Tech
Simply put, prior to Mike Leach being fired, this game seemed much clearer. It seemed a given the Red Raiders were the superior team. Now, who knows what the mindset of this team will be for this game. The Spartans are solid enough to hang around, though they have their own off-field problems, so I am taking the points and sitting back to see what unfolds.
Boise State (+7.5) covers vs. TCU
In this matchup, the oddsmakers set this line at 7.5 as a way to get two-way action. If this line had been set at 3, then most of the money would have come in on the Horned Frogs side. As it is, I’ll take the added value from the additional points. This should be a great game between two great teams, though I wish they could have taken on Florida or Oregon instead.
Iowa (+4) covers vs. Georgia Tech
The Hawkeyes have had a long time to prepare for this game, which is bad news for the Yellow Jackets since they run the unconventional triple option. On the other side, Iowa will welcome back starting QB Ricky Stanzi. I like for the ACC to continue to struggle in BCS games and for the Big Ten to gain back just a little bit of respect.
Troy (+4) covers vs. Central Michigan
These are two very solid non-BCS programs so this should be a good ballgame. A key to keep in mind is location, as this game is in Alabama. That gives Troy an edge that, combined with the points, makes for a solid play. The MAC has once again struggled in bowl games, so that is another trend in Troy’s favor. On a side note, why does the MAC have 5 teams in bowls? This is a very telling sign that there are way too many bowl games…
Drumroll please…
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Alabama (-4) covers vs. Texas
We saw how much trouble the Texas offense had against not only DT Ndamukong Suh but also DT Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma. Well, Alabama has Terrence “Mount” Cody and he should present the same kinds of problems. The Longhorns will have no semblance of a running game and LB Rolando McClain will likely shadow Colt McCoy all night. The Crimson Tide will not have it easy moving the football either but, at the end of the day, the balance and efficiency will allow them to do just enough to move the chains, control the clock, and stay in manageable 3rd down situations.
Tags: Bowl Picks, Free Picks, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NCAAF | Comments Off
Thursday, December 24th, 2009
By Ron Jumper
It is time for our second installment of bowl picks, with 14 game breakdowns here. So far, the Mountain West has clearly stolen the show. We knew about TCU, BYU, and Utah but what about Wyoming? The Cowboys took down Fresno State straight up as an 11-point dog, starting the 3-game win streak for the MWC this bowl season. BYU and Utah were both underdogs in their matchups as well, against the supposedly improving Pac-10.
I’ve said for a long time that the Mountain West was becoming a legitimate conference, even as far back as 2006 I compared the conferences (outside of USC) and didn’t feel the gap was that wide. Now, I would say that the top half of the Mountain West is obviously as good as the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-10 but not quite yet ready to be compared to the SEC. The problem is the bottom half, as Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, and UNLV have been underwhelming. With just nine teams in the MWC, why not go grab Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada then become a real conference? Stop and think about it, if that had been the case this season that would have been a very strong conference. If you are bored at the house around the holidays, stack up those teams 1-12 then lay it side by side with the other BCS conferences. How far is the gap? Is there even one at all?
Ohio (-3) covers vs. Marshall
The Bobcats are underrated and catch the Herd without a head coach.
Pitt (-1.5) covers vs. UNC
In the end, Dion Lewis is the difference because both teams have a good defense and veteran quarterback.
USC (-7) covers vs. Boston College
I have little faith in the Eagles passing game to make plays here.
Kentucky (+7.5) covers vs. Clemson
Tigers routinely disappoint this time of year, SEC doesn’t.
Georgia (-7) covers vs. Texas A&M
Bulldogs defense will lock down Jerrod Johnson, Aggies passing attack. Expect Georgia to keep the ball on the ground and grind out an ol’ fashioned victory.
UCLA (-4) covers vs. Temple
Congrats to the Owls on their season, but lets keep it real here. The MAC isn’t ready to compete with the big boys just yet, outside of maybe Central Michigan
Miami (-3) covers vs. Wisconsin
Hurricanes have speed, speed, and more speed. Bad news for Badgers…
Idaho (+2) covers vs. Bowling Green
FYI, this game is in Idaho…
Nebraska (+2) covers vs. Arizona
Cornhuskers D eats ‘Zona alive, Roy Helu provides just enough offense on the ground.
Air Force (+4) covers vs. Houston
The Falcons have the top pass defense in the country. While the Cougars will have plenty of time to prepare for the triple option, they struggle mightily to stop the run.
Oklahoma (-9.5) covers vs. Stanford
Sooners have been rough at times this season but, since Stanford won’t have QB Andrew
Missouri (-6.5) covers vs. Navy
Tigers have flown under the radar all season, but keep your eye on Danario Alexander.
Iowa State (+2.5) covers vs. Minnesota
Cyclones survive battle of mediocre BCS teams, doesn’t appear WR Eric Decker will go in this one.
Virginia Tech (-4.5) covers vs. Tennessee
I hate to pick against the SEC, but Vols haven’t instilled much confidence…
Tags: Bowl Picks, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NCAAF | Comments Off
Friday, December 18th, 2009
By Ron Jumper
It is time for my first slate of bowl picks, as I will be picking every bowl game against the spread and breaking it up into three parts over the course of bowl season. For this first part, I’ll pick the first six bowl games between now and Christmas Eve. The second part will include the games from December 26 to New Year’s Eve and the third part will include the bowls from New Year’s Day through the BCS National Championship. I think that is simple enough, let’s get started.
The regular season ended well, as I finished a solid 8 games above .500 ATS and right at 80% straight up. For those that understand this concept, I’m sorry to have to repeat it yet again. I picked every Top 25 game every week, which was sometimes up to 22 or 23 games. Generally speaking, good handicappers pick just a small handful of games that they really like and are happy to finish with a winning percentage around 55% at the end of the season. Picking this volume of games is much more challenging.
College Football Top 25 Record:
131-123-5 ATS, 205-54 SU
Fresno State (-10.5) covers vs. Wyoming
The Bulldogs finished 8-4 overall in the regular season, highlighted by a thrilling win over Illinois. The guy that makes Fresno State go is Ryan Mathews, as he is the heart and soul of this offense. Mathews has the potential to run wild and take over games at a moments notice. Outside of the Nevada game in which he was injured and only had 8 carries, he topped the 100-yard mark in every game he played. This takes the pressure off QB Ryan Colburn, who has not had much success when having to shoulder the burden of moving the offense in either late game situations or when trying to come from behind.
On the other side, I don’t feel the 6-6 Cowboys are very good. Truthfully, they should feel fortunate they are playing in the postseason and other 6-6 schools like Kansas State or Notre Dame aren’t. Staying on that note, head coach Dave Christensen is concerned his team will just be happy to be there since no one on the roster has ever been to a bowl game. This just smells like a rout to me. Fresno State 42-14
Central Florida (+3) covers vs. Rutgers
In a battle of Knights, I like UCF to emerge victorious in this game. Quietly, they have a very solid defense, especially along the defensive line. They rank 7th in the country in sacks, which should be a big advantage for them in this matchup since Rutgers is 114th nationally in sacks allowed. If I’m a Rutgers fan, I can’t say I’m happy about freshman QB Tom Savage running for his life. Rutgers struggles to run the football, and that should ultimately be their doom. Consider also that this game is a virtual home game for UCF, playing down the road in St. Petersburg. UCF 23-14
Southern Miss (-3.5) covers vs. Middle Tennessee State
Both teams have explosive offenses averaging over 30 points per game, so this should be a surprisingly good game to watch. For the Blue Raiders, they have a spectacular quarterback in Dwight Dasher who leads the team in both passing and rushing. However, I think the balanced attack of the Golden Eagles will be too much in the end. There was concern when QB Austin Davis went down, but Martevious Young has stepped in and been just fantastic. In his last 5 games, Young has 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Running back Damion Fletcher and wide receiver DeAndre Brown are explosive playmakers worth tuning in for. Southern Miss 38-27
BYU (+3) covers vs. Oregon State
Here, it isn’t so much about the talent level of each team, as location and timing will have an impact on this game’s outcome. This is the Las Vegas Bowl, BYU’s home away from home, so there should be a bunch of crazy Mormons in town for the game. On a side note, what do Mormons do in Vegas? See the sites, tour the Hoover Dam, watch the Terry Fator show? I have no idea…
The other important thing to consider is that the Beavers just lost to Oregon and missed out on a shot in the Rose Bowl. I doubt they will be up for this game, as it has little meaning to them. On the other side, quarterback Max Hall is a senior and wants to go out on top. BYU 31-24
Cal (-3.5) covers vs. Utah
The Bears have been disappointing, in particular against Washington in their regular season finale. None the less, I would be remiss if I didn’t also mention that Utah hasn’t been so great either. Yes, they’ve won games but not like they should have. The only team they beat all season with a winning record was Air Force, as they lost to TCU, BYU, and Oregon. This isn’t the mighty Utah from last season that beat Alabama, they lost a lot in terms of experience at quarterback and depth along the lines. I like for Cal to be able to establish the run, even if it is Shane Vereen carrying the load instead of Jahvid Best. Cal 34-24
Nevada (-15) covers vs. SMU
Before I say anything, just look at how many points Nevada has scored in their last 9 games: 63, 37, 35, 70, 31, 62, 52, 63, 33.
The Wolf Pack have an explosive offense, featuring the top rushing attack in the country. When you stop and think about it, they average more rushing yards than Georgia Tech, Air Force, and Navy who strictly run the ball out of the triple option so it is truly remarkable how they are able to be so effective. Throw in SMU head coach June Jones is Hawaii’s former coach and that this game is in Hawaii and I think it is safe to say the Mustangs will not have the crowd on their side. Nevada 63-24
Tags: Bowl Picks, Ron
Posted in Free Picks, NCAAF | Comments Off
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