By David Jones
Colts rally to stun Patriots
In a showdown of the two winningest teams of the decade, the Indianapolis Colts rallied for two touchdowns in the final three minutes to edge the New England Patriots by a final of 35-34 in the marquee matchup of the week 10 slate. The game ended as a push on the point spread. The Colts opened as a 2.5-point favorite in the contest before being moved down to a 1-point choice by kickoff. Indianapolis is just 1-3-1 ATS at home this season.
It was another good week for underdogs. After posting a 10-3 ATS record in week 9, underdogs went 8-5-2 ATS in week 10. The Jaguars and Bengals scored upset victories as 6.5-point underdogs. The Chiefs, Redskins, Panthers and Packers also secured wins in the underdog role last week. Bettors did post a 7-2 record on side line moves in week 10. The only losing moves were on the Eagles and Browns.
Here’s a categorical recap of week 10 NFL results:
Line moves: sides 7-2, totals 7-4
Home teams: 10-5 (8-5-2 ATS)
Favorites: 9-6 (5-8-2 ATS)
Over/Under: 9-6 OV
Entire season
Line moves: sides 59-49, totals 57-63
Home teams: 82-61 (65-74-4 ATS)
Favorites: 96-48 (69-71-4 ATS)
Over/Under: 74-68-2 OV
Plenty of big favorites in week 11
There are several potential mismatches on tap for this week’s action. Eight teams have opened as a favorite of more than a touchdown in week 11. The Jaguars, Steelers, Vikings, Cowboys, Saints, Cardinals, Patriots and Bengals are all favored by at least eight points. A couple of key games did not have odds early in the week due to injuries. With Michael Turner and Kyle Orton questionable to play due to injuries, the opening odds for Atlanta at the New York Giants and San Diego at Denver were not released early in the week.
A good week for unbeatens, favorites in college action
It was a good week for chalk in college football. The six undefeated squads went 4-2 ATS while favorites went 34-22-1 ATS over the entire schedule of games. Alabama, Texas, TCU and Boise State were able to cover while Florida and Cincinnati remained unbeaten but were unable to cover last week.
In a MWC showdown against 16th-ranked Utah, TCU rolled to a 55-28 home victory over the Utes. The Horned Frogs closed as a 20-point favorite in the contest after opening as a 17.5-point choice.
In side line moves of three points or more, bettors rolled to a 9-1 mark against the spread. Big moves on Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Western Michigan, California, Oregon State, Oregon and Boise State were successful. The lone move that failed to come through was on Ohio State. The Buckeyes went from a 13.5-point favorite to a 16.5-point choice by kickoff in their Rose Bowl showdown at Columbus against Iowa. Ohio State pulled out a 27-24 overtime win.
Here’s a categorical recap of week 11 NCAAF results:
Line moves: sides 32-16, totals 25-26
Home teams: 26-30-1 ATS
Favorites: 34-22-1 ATS
Over/Under: 25-30-2 OV
Entire season
Line moves: sides 270-223, totals 282-203
Home teams: 261-286-5 ATS
Favorites: 279-276-6 ATS
Over/Under: 255-298-8 OV
Unbeatens expected to dominate again this week
The five undefeated squads that will be in action this week are all heavily favored. Top-ranked Florida has opened as a 43-point home favorite against Florida International. The 3rd-ranked Texas Longhorns are a 27-point choice for their home finale against Kansas. 4th-ranked TCU is a 31-point favorite at Wyoming while 6th-ranked Boise State is a 24.5-point choice for a Friday night matchup at Utah State. There is no line for 2nd-ranked Alabama’s game against Chattanooga, a non-board FCS school. 5th-ranked Cincinnati has an open date this week.
In the lone Top 25 matchup of the week, 17th-ranked Stanford has opened as a touchdown favorite at home against 25th-ranked California.
Tags: Behind The Line, David Jones