By Ron Jumper
The SEC is never the poster child for college fantasy football, as the defenses are second to none and the offenses tend to be more balanced than spread (though Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida are trying to change that stereotype). It doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value to be had in the SEC, it just means you have to look a little harder to find it. The second key to the SEC is paying close attention to the schedule, as while it is true that points will be hard to come by when Alabama comes up on the schedule it is equally true that points will up for grabs when the SEC takes on their traditionally weak non-conference schedule (as well as beating up on Vanderbilt).
To further illustrate my point about the SEC schedule, the entire conference only plays 9 non-conference road games. On the flip side, they have 11 games against FCS schools. The only school that doesn’t play an FCS school is Vanderbilt (which is odd because they need all the help they can get). So back to my point, there is value to be had in the SEC each and every week. It is just that outside of the obvious guys like Mark Ingram and Ryan Mallett, one has to do a little research to find it every week.
With an SEC-only league, I would encourage you to only have 6 teams and a max of 8. The reason being that there are only 12 teams in the SEC and it will be quite a challenge to start a top quarterback or defense each week once you get past the top half of the league and then also have to endure bye weeks. The other positions (RB, WR, TE) are usually easier to find, as most teams have multiple players that could get touches every week.
I’ll go by position first and then give my overall rankings at the end. Enjoy!
Quarterback:
Looking back at 2009, it wasn’t a strong season for quarterbacks after Tim Tebow and Ryan Mallett. Tebow didn’t have great passing numbers, but the rushing yards and touchdowns allowed him to still be a prominent fantasy player after being a consensus top choice. Mallett, while certainly on the radar in the pre-season, surpassed even the most optimistic Hog fan’s expectations with 30 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Going into 2010, it appears that Ryan Mallett is far and away the consensus number 1 quarterback. That isn’t to say there won’t be anyone giving him a run for his money, as I expect both Cameron Newton at Auburn and John Brantley at Florida to be worthy challengers.
Digging a little deeper and depending on how you look at it, none of the consensus SEC quarterbacks can be considered a “sure thing” because they all have question marks. While you can pretty much say that about everyone every year, I’m talking about guys like Tim Tebow (if we are talking SEC) or Case Keenum (if we are talking 120 leagues) that were mortal locks to have monster seasons last year. Mallett has been recovering from a foot injury and, while he appears optimistic, could have lingering issues throughout the season. Newton appears to be in a great position to rack up yards in Auburn’s no-huddle offense, but the Tigers actually handed the ball off much more than they put the ball in the air last season. With a quarterback trying to jump from JUCO to the SEC, I don’t see that changing again this season. Brantley is stepping in and trying to fill some very big shoes. We have been told good things about how talented he is and that the passing game will become more traditional, but that is just talk at this point. What if he struggles? What kind of leash does Urban Meyer have him on? Will they turn back to the running game and/or incorporate the “wildcat” back into a more prominent role in their offense? Better yet, even if Brantley succeeds, this is a Gators team with unproven wide receivers since they not only lost their quarterback but also their top 2 pass catchers from last season in Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez.
Outside of the top 3, Stephen Garcia has the starting job for now but Steve Spurrier could change his mind at any time. The quarterback situation at schools like Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Tennessee is starting to clear up but changes could be on the horizon should there be any unexpected stumbles early. Greg McElroy is the man at Bama but he doesn’t give you the gaudy numbers you’re hoping for in a fantasy quarterback. I’m not sure you wouldn’t be better off avoiding Kentucky and Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks all together this season.
The biggest sleeper (as well as the biggest risk/reward) is Mississippi State quarterback Chris Relf. Because of his ability to make plays with his legs and mouth-watering matchups against Alcorn State and Houston, Relf could potentially rack up some nice numbers when the matchup is right. On the other side, head coach Dan Mullen has a decision to make because Tyler Russell is also a talented young quarterback with the only exception being Russell is more of a traditional drop back passer at 6’5” 225. If they share the job or play musical quarterback all season, there is no fantasy value here. On the other side, if Relf takes the job he could emerge as a big time playmaker.
1. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2. Cameron Newton, Auburn
3. John Brantley, Florida
4. Stephen Garcia, South Carolina
5. Matt Simms, Tennessee
6. Aaron Murray, Georgia
7. Chris Relf, Mississippi State
8. Greg McElroy, Alabama
9. Jordan Jefferson, LSU
10. Nathan Stanley, Ole Miss
11. Morgan Newton, Kentucky
12. Larry Smith, Vanderbilt
Running Back:
Last season, there was plenty of talk about Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram but fantasy owners were talking about another SEC running back. That running back was Mississippi State’s Anthony Dixon, who actually averaged more rushing yards per game than Ingram and tied him with 12 touchdown runs in the regular season (Ingram had 5 additional touchdowns against Florida and Texas to put his overall season total at 17). That is part of the beauty of fantasy football, as the public at large was raving about Ingram but the diehards were taking notice of what was happening down in Starksville. Dixon is gone but Ingram remains, making him the obvious consensus choice to start the season. However, the big question really is who else will emerge as the top fantasy running backs in the SEC?
Looking back at the running back position in the SEC, there has been an enormous amount of turnover. Dixon, Auburn’s Ben Tate, Tennessee’s Montario Hardesty, and Ole Miss’s Dexter McCluster have all moved to the NFL, leaving a brand new crop of talentend SEC running backs. Auburn’s Mario Fannin is a popular choice as a breakout player but I’m less optimistic. I think the Tigers will rack up rushing yards but it will be a variety of guys doing it. Onterio McCalebb was outstanding as a freshman until he got banged up. Don’t forget they have highly touted freshman Michael Dyer coming in as well. This has all the makings of a dreaded RBBC (running back by committee), which send chills down fantasy owners spines. Tormented by the uncertainty of which running back will get the bulk of the carries or the red zone touches every week, fantasy owners have to flip a coin and hope they played the right guy. I’ll pass on Fannin.
Instead, I’m sticking with what I know and that is Houston Nutt. The Rebels don’t have a quarterback or passing game to speak of, all the more reason to think they will hammer the ball up the gut 35-40 times a game (maybe even a draw on third down…oh come on…you know that’s funny). More importantly, Brandon Bolden looks to be ready to step in and become the featured back in this run-heavy offense. Last season, Bolden had 663 yards rushing on 129 carries (good for 4.8 ypc) and also had 209 yards receiving. It is more than reasonable to imagine him getting up over 200 carries this season with McCluster’s 181 carries now up for grabs and, when you throw in the receiving yards, totaling over 1200 yards of offense is a reasonable goal. In addition, Bolden should get the red zone touches. I like him to emerge as a playmaker this season.
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama
2. Brandon Bolden, Ole Miss
3. Derrick Locke, Kentucky
4. Jeff Demps, Florida
5. Washaun Ealey, Georgia
6. Warren Norman, Vanderbilt
7. Mario Fannin, Auburn
8. Trent Richardson, Alabama
9. Broderick Green, Arkansas
10. Caleb King, Georgia
11. Tauren Poole, Tennessee
12. Ronnie Wingo, Arkansas
13. Onterio McCalebb, Auburn
14. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
15. Stevan Ridley, LSU
16. Dennis Johnson, Arkansas
17. Vick Ballard, Mississippi State
18. Kenny Miles, South Carolina
19. Michael Ford, LSU
20. Knile Davis, Arkansas
Wide Receiver/Tight End:
In the SEC, there is no question the receivers have talent but deciphering which ones will be impact fantasy performers is a whole other issue. Julie Jones is a prime example of this conundrum, as he is clearly one of the more talented receivers in the country but his production suggests he is only an average SEC player. Mississippi’s Shay Hodge led the conference in receiving yards last season yet no one considered him anywhere near the most talented player at his position within the conference.
Finding value involves looking at potential opportunities, however that means more than just looking at teams that pass a lot. Does a team have one or maybe two top options or is a committee of guys? Arkansas is the clearest example, as they have the best receivers in the conference and maybe the country. Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, and D.J. Williams make up an all-star cast, which is awesome for quarterback Ryan Mallett and head coach Bobby Petrino but chaos for fantasy owners.
With this in mind, I really like both A.J. Green at Georgia and Alshon Jeffrey at South Carolina. These guys have the best combination of talent and opportunity, as both are the clear cut primary option in effective passing offenses. I also like Darvin Adams at Auburn. In terms of tight ends, the far and away top player is D.J. Williams.
1. A.J. Green, Georgia
2. Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
3. Darvin Adams, Auburn
4. Greg Childs, Arkansas
5. Terrence Tolliver, LSU
6. Joe Adams, Arkansas
7. Gerald Jones, Tennessee
8. Randall Cobb, Kentucky
9. Jarius Wright, Arkansas
10. D.J. Williams, Arkansas*Tight End
11. Julio Jones, Alabama
12. Deonte Thompson, Florida
13. Markeith Summers, Ole Miss
14. Marquis Maze, Alabama
15. Terrell Zachery, Auburn
16. Denarius Moore, Tennessee
17. Marcus Green, Mississippi State*Tight End
18. Tori Gurley, South Carolina
19. Luke Stocker, Tennessee*Tight End
20. Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
Defense/Special Teams:
With fantasy D/ST, it is important to not get too caught up in the special team aspect of it. Even the most talented kick returners are only going to score once or twice all season so the defense is where you are going to consistently score points each week. Besides that, getting a top defense shouldn’t be a high priority in your draft. It is usually a position I prefer to switch out weekly based on matchups, meaning I pickup new defenses and drop the previous one. With that being the case, I wouldn’t recommend doing that if you invested a high draft pick in a particular defense.
1. Alabama
2. South Carolina
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. LSU
6. Auburn
7. Tennessee
8. Arkansas
9. Mississippi State
10. Ole Miss
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt
Overall:
In terms of ranking the top players, your draft strategy by conference is going to be entirely different than your 120 draft strategy. Going even further, each conference should be approached differently than others depending on the makeup of the players. Let’s look at the SEC, where is the conference strongest and where is it weakest in terms of depth at each position? The deepest position is actually wide receiver in my opinion, followed by running back and then quarterback. With that being the case, there is a premium on quarterbacks so they should be the highest priority due to scarcity. Mallett is the clear top tier then Brantley and Newton make up the second tier. Stephen Garcia is in a third tier by himself, but from there the difference in quarterback 5 and 9 is minimal with 10-12 being a notch below them. In terms of draft strategy, if you can’t get one of the top 3 quarterbacks you should look at other positions because the difference in later quarterbacks is minimal while there is still elite talent at other positions available. It is just a more intricate version of Value Based Drafting or VBD for short. Confused yet? Don’t be, it will all make sense as you look through my rankings.
1. QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
3. QB Cameron Newton, Auburn
4. QB John Brantley, Florida
5. RB Brandon Bolden, Ole Miss
6. RB Derrick Locke, Kentucky
7. WR A.J. Green, Georgia
8. WR Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
9. QB Stephen Garcia, South Carolina
10. WR Darvin Adams, Auburn
11. RB Jeff Demps, Florida
12. WR Greg Childs, Arkansas
13. RB Washaun Ealey, Georgia
14. RB Warren Norman, Vanderbilt
15. RB Mario Fannin, Auburn
16. WR Terrence Tolliver, LSU
17. WR Joe Adams, Arkansas
18. WR Gerald Jones, Tennessee
19. WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky
20. WR Jarius Wright, Arkansas
21. TE D.J. Williams, Arkansas
22. WR Julio Jones, Alabama
23. QB Matt Simms, Tennessee
24. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia
25. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
26. WR Deonte Thompson, Florida
27. RB Broderick Green, Arkansas
28. WR Markeith Summers, Ole Miss
29. RB Caleb King, Georgia
30. RB Tauren Poole, Tennessee
31. QB Chris Relf, Mississippi State
32. Alabama D/ST
33. WR Marquis Maze, Alabama
34. WR Terrell Zachery, Auburn
35. QB Greg McElroy, Alabama
36. RB Ronnie Wingo, Arkansas
37. RB Onterio McCalebb, Auburn
38. WR Denarius Moore, Tennessee
39. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
40. QB Jordan Jefferson, LSU