By Ron Jumper
This article will document moves as free agent signings happen, giving a long look at the Fantasy impact it will have on next season. Check back daily for my analysis of all the big NFL off-season moves.
Monday April 5, 2010:
More McNabb Trade Analysis
After taking 24 hours to digest all of this, my approach to the 2010 fantasy football draft has changed. Now, a tight end like Chris Cooley offers nice value later in the draft. Potentially, with McNabb as his QB, Cooley could finish as the top tight end at the end of next season when you consider how productive Brent Celek was in 2009 (finished as the 4th overall fantasy tight end). I would expect Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Tony Gonzalez to all be in the mix as the top tight ends, but I’ll be sitting back ready to grab Cooley (don’t tell anyone, ok?).
As for the Eagles, I think this downgrades DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek just a notch. They still are capable fantasy starters, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable counting on either as heavily as I did last season. As long as Andy Reid is the head coach, this team will be a pass-first offense so there is always going to value in a guy like Kolb and whomever his top targets are. Also, in my opinion, the Eagles have taken a couple of steps back and will likely be losing more games, allowing more points per game, and needing to take to the air exclusively in desperation late in comeback attempts. If this holds true, Kolb becomes a great waiver wire pickup when the matchup is right.
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Sunday April 5, 2010:
Redskins Shaking Up Fantasy Landscape
I had no more than just posted an entry about the Redskins running back situation and how it could be affected by a change at quarterback when the news broke McNabb was being traded to the Redskins. As the story settled into my brain, my initial thought was “great, now I have to go re-write that entire entry” but after I got back settled I started to analyze this situation more closely. This is great news for Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, but I can’t say I’ll be targeting McNabb in any leagues. That offensive line is still a mess, as I’d now expect LT Russell Okung to become the guy the Redskins target with the #4 overall draft pick, and I wouldn’t call the talent at wide receiver any more than average. More interesting is the fact the Eagles traded within their division, typically an unwritten rule for GMs. Speaking of the Eagles, I’m now concerned about DeSean Jackson and would tend to think he is overvalued as a second rounder.
The running back situation in Washington is just as complicated. With Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker all in the same backfield, it will be interesting to see how the carries are divided up. If one of these backs establishes himself as the feature back or maybe one of them goes down due to injury, their could be some fantasy potential down the road. If I were to guess, I would say Portis starts out as the featured back because they have the most money invested in him but, as the season goes on, I would expect them all to get opportunities to carry the load. I’d steer clear of drafting any of these guys in the first 10 rounds or even at all, but monitor this situation closely as the season goes on. If one of these guys catches on down the stretch, that waiver wire pickup could be the key your to playoff run. You just never know…
Chargers, Jets Shaking Up Backfields
Truthfully, I don’t know what to make of these moves for either team, particularly the Jets. We could see coming the Chargers letting LT go and it wasn’t shocking when the Jets let Thomas Jones go, however why the Jets let Jones go to turn around and sign LT is where they lost me. Watching the playoffs, the Jets appeared ready to hand the reins over to Shonn Greene, as his playoff performances were fantastic. Before the LT signing, I was getting ready to bump Greene into the upper echelon of fantasy backs but now it is a wait-and-see approach until training camp and pre-season contests get underway.
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Tuesday March 30, 2010:
Sorry, hadn’t updated this in a couple weeks, a lot of college basketball going on. Something I like to look at is a signing like Mike Bell to the Eagles. Nationally, not a lot of headlines but this matters a lot. In my mind, this makes a big difference in the fantasy value of Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and Saints RB Pierre Thomas. With Mike Bell in the mix, not to mention Leonard Weaver, I see McCoy not getting the red zone touches his fantasy owners would like. On the other side, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell took turns having big fantasy days each week. Now, if you remove Bell, this should drastically change the value of Pierre Thomas. I’ve downgraded McCoy to the 5th round range and upgraded Thomas to a top 25 overall fantasy player.
Staying on the Eagles, something is coming soon as far the quarterback position is concerned. With this being the case, I think you have to be ready to downgrade DeSean Jackson if a change is to occur. If McNabb goes to the Raiders or any other team, that likely downgrades McNabb’s value as well since the Eagles were such a pass heavy offense it is doubtful he’ll produce those kinds of numbers in Oakland or wherever. Back to Jackson, between a possible change at quarterback and the emergence of Jeremy Maclin, I’m not convinced that he should be considered a top-3 fantasy wideout. I’m still of the opinion that a Reggie Wayne or Vincent Jackson might be a safer option.
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Sunday March 14, 2010:
Quarterback Movement
-The Browns have now brought in Jake Delhomme, who will battle Seneca Wallace for the starting job. This likely means the end for Brady Quinn in Cleveland. The winner of this job isn’t likely to be a sexy fantasy pick but worth noting all the same.
-What will the Steelers do this off-season? Rumors have circulated that they will look at adding another quality QB to the mix as an insurance policy in case Big Ben can’t avoid legal trouble. If this newcomer were to become the starter, it would be likely this starter would have fantasy value since the Steelers have developed into a pass-first offense with depth at wide receiver.
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Tueday March 9, 2010:
Thomas Jones to Chiefs
This is huge fantasy news all the way around, as Jones was a top 5 fantasy back last season. Also, with the way Jamaal Charles played down the stretch, I was expecting Charles to be the featured back in 2010. Now, it will be interesting to see how they can perform together and if they can still be big players in fantasy football individually. These backs do have different styles, as Jones is more of a power back and Charles is more of speed back. Hopefully, these two can compliment each other and find ways for both to be productive. Jones will likely get more red zone touches, while Charles will probably be more involved in the passing game. Who knew the Chiefs would be making the biggest fantasy splash this off-season?
This is a transition year at the running back position in fantasy football, as a number of older guys are on their way out and that means a whole new batch of young guys will step in to the fold. Shonne Green, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, and Knowshon Moreno are guys that come to mind.
Seneca Wallace to Browns
While this isn’t a headline grabber, it does seem to indicate that Mike Holmgren is bringing in his own guys and that could be the end of the Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn era in Cleveland. As for trying to guestimate the fantasy value of Wallace if he were to land the starting job, I’m still looking at him as a matchup based fill-in guy but I’m keeping a close eye on what the Browns offseason has in store.
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Monday March 8, 2010:
Chris Chambers re-signs with Chiefs
This just might be a nice sleeper for 2010. After being traded from the Chargers, Chambers was able to step in and make an impact from the start. In 9 games, he totaled 608 yards and 4 touchdowns. At that clip, Chambers would total 1081 yards and close to 8 touchdowns over 16 games. Looking at last year’s results, that would have been good enough for 13th among wide receivers. Assuming a full off-season learning the system can’t hurt those numbers, he just might be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver if he stays the course. As far as where he will be drafted, I doubt he is ranked anywhere near the top 10 by most experts. Sleeper Alert!
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Saturday March 6, 2010:
Anquan Boldin to Baltimore Ravens
Both Boldin and the Ravens should be ecstatic here, as this is a great fit. Joe Flacco really needed a big time playmaker at the wide receiver position and he got his wish. It also came at a bargain price, giving away 3rd and 4th round picks. Keep in mind, the Ravens get a 5th rounder from the Cardinals as well so they really didn’t give up all that much. The issue for some teams might have been the extension Boldin was wanting, but the Ravens front office gave him a 3-year $25 million extension that puts a total of 4 years and $28 million left on his current deal. For me, this was the move the Ravens had to make. Now, they can turn their attention to the defense with their remaining draft picks.
So what kind of impact does this have on the fantasy value of everyone involved? As far as Boldin leaving the Arizona Cardinals, this gives a bump to Larry Fitzgerald and dramatically changes the value of Steve Breaston, who should emerge as the starter. Now the top option in Baltimore, I expect a lot of red zone targets for Boldin this season. He is a fearless competitor that has no problem going over the middle and taking the blow. Flacco should see his pass attempts (and consequently touchdown passes) in the red zone go up for 2010. Overall, I wouldn’t say this dramatically changes the fantasy value of Flacco because they are still going to be a running football team. However, I think this could bring a more consistent value to Flacco, who started off last season looking like the steal of the draft with three 300+ yard passing games in the first 6 weeks but, at other times, was almost non-existent (8 games with under 200 passing yards and 4 games with zero touchdown passes). With Boldin, the passing game might begin to have more consistent production on a weekly basis. As for Boldin himself, I see his yards staying close to the 1000-yard mark but the increase in value will come from his touchdown catches. In 2009, he had just 4 but I see that number jumping up to somewhere between 8 and 12 for 2010. If that were the case, it would add 24 to 48 fantasy points to his season total and, based on last year’s wide receiver rankings, would land him somewhere between the 8 to 15 range at his position.
Chester Taylor to the Chicago Bears
It is funny how fantasy football works, I’m really not that interested in the signing of Julius Peppers. Sure, their sack total will increase some and maybe they will be a better overall defense but the most important move the Bears made was signing Chester Taylor. This is important because it is the nail in the coffin to Matt Forte’s fantasy value. After an incredible rookie season, Forte was just not near as effective in his sophomore campaign. In my opinion, Chester Taylor will not only take away touches from Forte but he will emerge as the starter over the course of the season.
We’ve said for years that if Taylor could have been the starter for the Vikings instead of Adrian Peterson, he would be a top 10 fantasy back because the Vikings had a top notch offensive line and were committed to running the football. Not that Taylor is as good as AD, but he is deserving of being a starter in the NFL. Now in Chicago, I see Taylor’s speed and pass-catching ability leading to him being very active in the passing game. Regardless of whether Taylor takes over the starting job or not, Forte is useless without being involved in the passing game. Forte has averaged 474 receiving yards his first two seasons so, without that, his fantasy value plummets even more. Taylor is a guy I’m keeping my eye on to grab later in the draft as a great value pick.
As for the Vikings, it will interesting to see if they go out and sign another back. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were interested in bringing in one of the veteran running backs (LT, Thomas Jones, Brian Westbrook) since they are trying to load up for a Super Bowl run. If they can get a solid short term deal done with one of those guys, it might be a nice value to have a more sure-handed back in the 4th quarter of a critical playoff game since AD is known to cough the ball up from time to time.