By Ron Jumper
Kurt Warner announcing his retirement shook up the fantasy landscape, as several guys fantasy value just took a major shift. Over the years, whether it was with the Rams or Cardinals, Warner was able to stockpile passing numbers with ease and, in the process, turn both himself and his receivers into fantasy gold. This is all besides the fact that Cardinals fans are already hyperventilating over the unavoidable Matt Leinart Era that is looming ahead from 2010 until the fans threaten to burn down the stadium.
In Green Bay, as Favre was on his way out, there was at least some optimism going into Aaron Rodgers first season as a starter. A lot of that optimism stemmed from when Rodgers filled in for the injured Favre against Dallas and performed well. Rodgers has gone on to become a Pro Bowl quarterback since, so it has worked out for Green Bay. However, I don’t think Arizona fans have the same level of optimism. They would probably say they expect it to resemble the Alex Smith era over in San Francisco.
A lot of the negativity towards Leinart stems from the perception that he doesn’t work hard and cares more about the party scene than the film room. Only time will tell if a shot at becoming the full-time starter can light a fire under the former USC star. For the sake of fantasy owners, he had better produce.
Regardless of whether Leinart plays well or not, the makeup of the Cardinals offense is going to drastically change. Instead of 3 or 4 wideouts and passing 40 times, I expect to see more use of a fullback and tight end from the Cardinals in 2010. So how does this affect the skill position players? Here is a one-by-one breakdown:
WR Larry Fitzgerald
My initial reaction was that the fantasy value of Fitz would plummet but, after further review, I’m starting to not be as worried. Fitz didn’t get a lot of yards last season, finishing with just 1092 receiving yards and only three 100-yard games. However, it was the 13 touchdowns that gave him top 5 fantasy value at the wide receiver position. The majority of his touchdown catches came from inside the red zone. I don’t expect this to go away in 2010. I see a slight dip to maybe 950 yards and only 11 or 12 touchdowns, but nothing worth losing sleep over.
WR Anquan Boldin
A lot of the same can be said for Boldin, though he has to get healthy and not get traded for this to even matter. If Boldin isn’t on the roster in 2010, the value of Fitzgerald doesn’t take any dip. If Boldin is on the roster, he has served as the possession receiver and likely will have more catches than Fitz but probably less touchdowns. As always, the two will take turns having big fantasy days.
WR Steve Breaston
This is the guy who’s fantasy value just gets killed. Breaston won’t get any red zone looks and the transition from a wide open passing attack to a more balanced attack with more traditional personnel (tight ends, H-back, etc.) should cut down on his opportunities.
RB Tim Hightower
I see his stock dropping as well, both because of the transition to Beanie Wells and from the fact that Warner threw a lot of balls his way (63 catches, 80 targets). This will be one of the many important RB battles to monitor in training camp, but I would guess Wells ends up earning the starting job.
RB Beanie Wells
So just how much higher does Wells stock get? Down the stretch, he was already starting to become a pretty good fantasy running back. It took him until week 7 to really get going. If Wells can get 15-20 carries, catch 3-5 balls, and get the red zone touches I expect him to get then this could end up being one of the steals in the 2010 fantasy draft. Granted, that depends on where he lands. If rankings start to escalate too high, then I’m not confident enough to have to depend on him as my first or second back just yet but I would love to have him as my third or fourth back because the upside is there.