Throughout his football career, dating back to high school, Knile Davis has had some bad luck when it comes to injuries, particularly his ankle. The injury bug has bitten Davis again, as he looks most likely to miss the 2011 season. Davis had been getting a lot of love from the media and many considered him the top running back in the SEC. Without question, head coach Bobby Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks lost a talented young man.

Now that the dust has settled, how will this impact the Razorbacks 2011 campaign?

Running back was a position that Hog fans worried very little about because, not only did they have Knile Davis but Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo have proven to be playmakers themselves. The concern was more along the offensive line, with left tackle being the most glaring weakness. Dennis Johnson has been a dynamic playmaker at different points in his career and Ronnie Wingo, a monster recruit coming out of Missouri, had a great spring that led to the coaches feeling he had finally reached his potential. Is Davis a stud? Obviously, but these two backs will be able to fill the void in terms of talent. More importantly, if the inexperienced line doesn’t create running lanes it really doesn’t matter who the running back is.

One thing to remember, back when Petrino was at Louisville he took them to the Orange Bowl despite losing highly touted running back Michael Bush to injury in the first game of the season. With the kind of talent and depth that Petrino has playing in his system, counting him out is simply a mistake.

Fantasy Spin:
Ronnie Wingo is the most likely to see the biggest increase in his workload, while also being likely to get the goalline carries that fantasy owners covet. At this point, Wingo is flying under the fantasy radar but he is a great value in what am I guessing will be the middle rounds of 120 drafts. Dennis Johnson will get touches but he doesn’t have the same upside as Wingo. If you don’t get the running back you want early in your draft, Wingo is a perfect low risk, high reward option.

Handicapping Spin:
The public sees this as a bigger detriment than it actually is, which could lead to better value for Hog backers. If the public perceives Arkansas as less talented, the spreads might be a little softer as opposed to being a public darling. The combination of breaking in a new QB and now losing Davis will scare away the average public bettor until the Hogs show they are still an elite team. Watch the lines closely, you might be able to get better value early in the season.

It is that point in the summer where there is nothing interesting to read in the sports section of the newspaper and there is nothing but baseball highlights on Sportscenter. For football fans, it is that calm before the storm only in this case we welcome that storm with open arms. For the avid fantasy football fan, it is right about that time to start researching who we are going to be targeting on draft day. Long gone are the days of preparing for the draft the week of, to compete in college fantasy football one must have done their homework well in advance. Class is now in session.

**This is not a rankings or preview article, this is a helpful guide to get you started in the right direction.

Lesson 1: He’s Back!

Case Keenum is perhaps the greatest fantasy football player in history, yes I did just say that. While I’m sure that those who drafted him last year will disagree, it was great news for the college fantasy game when he was granted another year of eligibility. In 2009, Keenum racked up 5,790 total yards and 48 total touchdowns in an explosive Houston offense. This was coming off a monster 2008 season that saw him tally 5,234 total yards and 51 touchdowns. If he does as expected and has another phenomenal season, I don’t see any way he isn’t the greatest college fantasy player of all time.

Lesson 2: Name Recognition Doesn’t Score Fantasy Points

When I look at other fantasy rankings, I see a lot of BCS running backs ranked highly. Don’t count on all of them finishing ranked that highly at the end of the season. I’m targeting some studs out of the Sun Belt in North Texas running back Lance Dunbar and Western Kentucky’s Bobby Rainey. Here are some potential busts:

Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
It isn’t that Lattimore doesn’t have talent, he does. However, the Gamecocks quarterback situation is unsettled and the offensive line has some question marks. Oh yeah, and they play in the SEC…

Trent Richardson, Alabama
Again, talent is not the issue. Richardson has not been able to stay healthy for a full season and I just don’t know if he can get you the type of numbers you need from a first round fantasy pick. Also, this just in, the SEC has awesome defenses.

Knile Davis, Arkansas
Davis is another talented running back but Arkansas has some youth on the offensive line and they will be rotating carries between not only Davis but Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson. I doubt he matches last season’s production. Did I mention the SEC has awesome defenses?

Lesson 3: Project New Starters With Caution

In some cases, the system is the reason for the production and in others the talent of the player was what led to success. Make an educated evaluation of each player, here is my take:

Thumbs Up
QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
QB Mike Glennon, NC State

Thumbs Down
QB Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
QB Casey Pachall, TCU

Lesson 4: Understand Value Based Drafting

Even if you like a player enough to take him in the 3rd round, you shouldn’t unless someone else is likely to draft him that high also. Just because you think you are on to a “sleeper” doesn’t mean you should draft them several rounds too high, always draft proven talent in the early rounds then take your sleepers late.

Also, understand the depth at each position and what value each player has. For example, Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon is far and away the best wide receiver so taking him in the first round is worth it because your receivers will be better than your opponents. Even though the quarterbacks that went in the first round are scoring more points, it is still worth it because there are plenty of quarterbacks later in the draft that will score similar amounts of points where as no receiver in this draft class came close to Blackmon’s production last year.

Lesson 5: Keep An Eye On Those Sleepers

As you get later in the draft, there is no reason to draft guys that are just average. You should swing for the fences and be willing to take risks. Either way, the majority of your later round picks will be guys you let go to waivers as better players emerge. What do you actually have to lose by taking a flyer on a guy with huge upside? Here are some guys I’m targeting:

Sleepers (Ranked Outside Top 50):
QB Zach Collaros, Cincinnati
QB Taylor Martinez, Nebraska
QB Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois
QB Ryan Tannenhill, Texas A&M
QB Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
RB Jason Ford, Illinois
RB Davin Meggett, Maryland
RB Jonathon Franklin, UCLA
RB Lennon Creer, Louisiana Tech
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State
WR Damario Belcher, Indiana
WR Josh Gordon, Baylor
WR Mark Harrison, Rutgers
TE Ladarius Green, UL Lafeyette

Deep Sleepers (Outside Top 200):
QB Ryan Radcliff, Central Michigan
QB Matt Schilz, Bowling Green
QB Barrett Trotter, Auburn
RB Bryce Brown, Kansas State
RB Alfred Morris, Florida Atlantic
RB Ralph Bolden, Purdue
RB Perry Jones, Virginia
RB Ryan Bass, Idaho
RB Ronnie Wingo, Arkansas
WR Travis Benjamin, Miami
WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois
WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State

This will hopefully get the wheels turning as you prepare for the draft, it is still a long ways away but there is so much information to cover in 120 leagues. I’ll continue on with my college fantasy football preview issue, as well as handicapping and traditional preview coverage.

Whenever the draft rolls around, I always am fascinated with the thought process of not only the NFL teams but also the draft analysts and media in general. The lack of genuine understanding from the average guy that works in the media, particularly at the local level, of how the draft process works and everything that goes into it is laughable. As for the NFL scouts and general managers, it blows my mind how the draft is almost a sport of its own, much like recruiting is at the college level, as opposed to being an extension of your overall strategy for how you plan to build your specific franchise into a winner.

Getting all caught up in “best player available” and what have you, which for the record can work if executed correctly, often earns a nice “grade” the day after but doesn’t always translate to success on the field when the season rolls around. With this draft in particular, giving any team’s draft a grade really is incomplete anyways because there hasn’t been free agency due to the lockout. If you choose to address needs by adding veterans then draft best player available that combo can work, it once again is just about the execution more than the strategy. However, not every team has that luxury. Think about a small market team that isn’t able to compete financially, for them the playing field isn’t level.

The best example I can give is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They DO NOT sign free agents, it is not an option due to their financial situation. For them, the draft is how they address their roster from a needs standpoint. They have no choice but to address needs as opposed to best player available, which is what they did in this draft. Coming in, GM Mark Dominik made it very obvious they HAD to get a pass rusher in this draft. The front office and scouting department was basically just trying to pinpoint what defensive ends would be available when they picked at 20. There was some talk of moving up to improve their odds of landing an elite DE but, ultimately, I’m sure they didn’t pull the trigger because they didn’t want to give up any picks because those are at a premium to them more so than any franchise in the league. The Bucs ended up taking defensive ends in the first two rounds, clearly addressing their biggest need.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Lions landed a stud in DT Nick Fairley. At different points in the draft process, Fairley was looked at as a top 3 talent. However, how does he help them? They already have a very good defensive line, with some guy named Ndamukong Suh. I just can’t imagine Fairley makes them much better, where as they could really use a LT to protect Mathew Stafford or open up running lanes. Long story short, the Lions spent some money in free agency last year while the Bucs focused on specific needs and team chemistry on a tight budget. The Lions were much more competitive than in years past but the Bucs won 10 games and are a team on the rise. The point is that having a concise strategy and executing it usually works better than blindly going after talent and throwing money at B-list free agents.

I’m trying to figure out where to even start…

The 2011 NFL draft quarterback class has been a wild roller coaster ride all season long. It just seems like every week a new quarterback would emerge in the top 5 and the guys that I view as the actual quarterback prospects get pushed further and further back. Never have I been more confused, granted I’ve only seriously covered the NFL draft for 6 years, but the fact still remains my mind has officially been blown.

I’m going to give a very simple analogy, look at all the top quarterbacks in the NFL: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Rothleisberger, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, and Matt Schaub. Even look at the young guns like Sam Bradford, Mathew Stafford, and Josh Freeman. Now, of all those guys, only ONE relies on his legs and that is Michael Vick. Can Aaron Rodgers or Josh Freeman take off when they need to? Yes, but let’s not get carried away and call them scramblers. To be a successful NFL quarterback, it is obvious there is a pretty clear cut prototype. They need to be able to play under center, stay in the pocket, dissect the defense pre-snap, and deliver the ball quickly in tight windows to the correct read.

Now, with that prototype in mind, who fits the mold in this draft class? Let’s take a look at the latest quarterback the “experts” have anointed as the top prospect in this draft: Blaine Gabbert. I just don’t see it. While he has nice size (6’5 240), nothing else about him says franchise quarterback. Look at the numbers, Gabbert only had 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. More importantly, his yards per attempt was 6.7 (which ranked just 78th in the country) and his QB rating was 127 (good for 64th nationally), both of which are very mediocre. Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett, and Cam Newton were all in the top 10 in both of those categories, not to mention they also all three had at least 30 touchdown passes. When you consider all of this took place in a quarterback friendly system at Missouri in a conference like the Big 12 that, other than Nebraska, doesn’t believe in defense it doesn’t sound too impressive. Honestly tell me if you are a Bills, Panthers, or Cardinals fan that you will be drooling with anticipation over this guy come draft day? Give me a break…

Then there is Cam Newton. Think it through, while he is big and fast, what does that matter in the NFL? He hasn’t played under center and hasn’t had to learn how to read defenses since every pass play was one-read due to eight guys being in the box on defense. Don’t be an amateur and say defenses will have to do that in the NFL to stop him because I got news for you…they won’t. It is a complete leap of faith thinking he can become an NFL QB. At best, we can label him a “project” that will need several years of seasoning before we know what we are getting (think Vince Young).

Now, based on the criteria we’ve discussed, who best fits the mold? Who has great size? Who has outstanding numbers (yards, touchdowns, yard per attempt, QB rating)? Who has played in a pro-style offense against elite defenses? In my opinion, there is only one choice: Ryan Mallett.

If there was ever a weekend to showcase as a textbook example of how the betting public loses and the casinos rake in cash, this was it. No, it isn’t because of a bunch of crazy upsets or wild finishes (though the Ravens-Steelers game qualifies). Simply put, every game had a line that was calculated perfectly in terms of forecasting what amount of money would come in on each side and where the line would close. Here is quick breakdown of what transpired.

At the conclusion of the wildcard weekend, the Seattle Seahawks were the big story. No one, and I repeat…NO ONE, thought they would whip the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints in that fashion. Well, that may be true, but Vegas was banking on them to cover the 11.5-point spread. To the recreational gambler, the Saints were going to win and win easy. However, “sharp” bettors and sports books had a different view. To them, the Saints had underachieved all year and, because of turnovers and injuries in the backfield, had let teams hang around in games they should have won easily (i.e. not covering spreads). They also respected the Seahawks at home, where they have been strong over the years. It also goes back to the age old adage that big spreads in the NFL are dangerous, particularly on the road.

At the time, I was on the air doing a radio broadcast for UALR basketball but an exchange I had with a co-worker summed up best what this article is trying to articulate. I was minutes from doing the pre-game show and not aware of the score of the game at the time when the co-worker walked up and this discussion took place:

Co-worker: The Saints are going to kill them, no reason they should be in the playoffs at 7-9.
Me: The game should be closer than you think, the Saints haven’t been near as good this season as last year.
Co-worker: The Saints are already up 10-0… (followed by condescending laughter)
Me: (With a grin) It’s the NFL, it’s early…

The rest, of course, was history. The Seahawks capped off the upset with a demoralizing touchdown run by Marshawn Lynch. The game’s outcome created a buzz among fans and the media which, in turn, was more than enough to get the betting public focused in on the NFC West champion that had been all but left for dead going into that matchup.

Now, because Seattle had become a public darling and the Bears were not a team perceived to be as elite as fellow heavyweights like the Patriots or Steelers, the money came in on the Seahawks to cover the double-digit spread against Chicago. However, yet again, the sharps and bookmakers had a different view. To them, Seattle had just played their “Super Bowl” because everyone said they didn’t deserve to make the playoffs due to their poor 7-9 record. They also had ridden the roller-coaster all season long with that bunch, as no team was more up and down then Seattle. This game had a clear divide between the public and the sharps, as the public was taking the darling underdog while the sharps saw the game as an obvious blowout situation. In this instance, since there is typically more public money than sharp money on the average game, the bookmakers were also cheering for the Bears. They got their wish, despite Seattle’s best attempt to sneak in for the backdoor cover, as the Bears survived 35-24.

Not all games went in favor of the books.

The Steelers are ALWAYS a public favorite, as they have the next biggest fan base in the league to the Dallas Cowboys, so it was expected when there was heavy public money on Pittsburgh to cover vs. the Ravens. This was the one game of the weekend that the public cashed in on and even that one took a little luck. It appeared the Ravens were going to win straight up with a 21-7 halftime lead. However, turnovers got the Steelers back in the game during the third quarter. Late in the game it was tied at 24, the Steelers had the ball looking to go down and win the game. On 3rd and 19 from their own 38, the Steelers completed a miracle hail mary down the sideline to Antonio Brown for 58 yards to the Ravens 4. Until that possession, you assumed that they either wouldn’t convert the third down or they would just get close enough to try a potentially game-winning field goal. The Steelers punched it in and covered the 3.5-point spread, much to the chagrin of sharps and bookmakers alike.

When the Falcons were favored by less than a field goal at home, I knew immediately that Vegas liked Green Bay. Despite Atlanta being so good at home since drafting Matt Ryan and with the Falcons being the higher seed, the trap was set by bookmakers to entice public bettors to take the home team. The key, in my opinion, was that Matt Ryan and this bunch hadn’t ever been in this spot before. Sure, Ryan had led the Falcons to the playoffs as a rookie where they lost at Arizona but they were the top seed in the NFC this season. Could they handle the hype? Meanwhile, Rodgers has been a man on a mission and the supposed lack of a running game seemed to be getting figured out thanks to James Starks. Sure enough, the Packers won going away and the game turned on a crucial interception by Ryan just before the half.

(It reminded me of the Arkansas Razorbacks going into their Sugar Bowl matchup with Ohio State. Sure, the SEC was supposed to kill the Big Ten but this was Ohio State going against Arkansas not Alabama. The Hogs were a great team but they weren’t accustomed to being in that spot, while the Buckeyes played in big games every year. It took Arkansas the first half to settle down and play their game.)

The Patriots have been a machine all year long and Tom Brady’s club is always going to be a fan favorite. They had pounded the Jets 45-3 earlier in the year, what was supposed to be different this time? With the line set at -9.5, bookmakers were hoping the money would pour in on New England and they got their wish. My thinking was, with all the hatred between these two teams, how could the Jets not show up and stay within single digits? That is a lot of points for fierce rivals in a playoff game. I didn’t like the Jets to win but I thought it would be a competitive game. Once again, we had a situation with a clear divide between public and sharp money on each side. The Patriots never seemed to get in sync and the Jets defense made play after play in route to winning the game straight up. My only concern now is whether or not the Jets have anything left in the tank, as beating New England was their “Super Bowl” similar to how the Seahawks beating the Saints was theirs.

Taking a quick peak, the Packers laying 3.5 on the road against Chicago was a surprise. The Bears have to feel disrespected, as they are both at home and the higher seed. The Steelers, yet again, are also a 3.5 point favorite. Both games put bettors in a similar predicament, as these type of lines are what we call a “hook” where it offers an additional half point above a key number which in this case would be 3. The Steelers are the better team but will they win by more than a field goal? It took a miracle against the Ravens to accomplish that feat. As for the Packers, have they now become this week’s public darling to be leery of? Aaron Rodgers is playing at a high level but now you have a disrespected division rival as a home dog. Not usually a great spot for bettors to lay the points.

Now that the college football season is over, it is time to turn our full attention to the hardwood. Not the NBA so much right now, as the NBA playoffs are when there is the most money to be made. I’m talking about college basketball, from the big boys down to the low majors. This is the time of year when lines are ripe for the picking. I’m going to go over a new system I’ve developed and give out some teams to keep on an eye on that the books may not be properly valuing.

As with all handicappers, developing systems can often sound quirky and even crazy but there is usually a method to the madness. With that in mind, here goes:

Zig-Zag Contrarian System
Most have heard of the Zig-Zag NBA playoff betting system and you’ve probably also heard of contrarian betting. If you haven’t, zig-zag theory is basically betting the rhythm of the NBA playoffs from game to game instead of the matchup so that, if Team A wins game 1, you take Team B in game 2. Contrarian betting is simply going against the majority on the simple premise the public generally loses so why not just do the opposite.

For my theory, I combine those two into a system that only requires two steps. Step one, pick teams that are traditionally “public” teams but also typically have a losing ATS record or are drastically overvalued this season due to results from the previous season. Michigan State was the first team that came to mind, as they finished 15-21 ATS last season despite typically being a popular/good team. As for teams who I think are simply overvalued, I’m going with Pitt and Syracuse. Part of the lack of value is also due to their style of play and lack of 3-point shooting, as they tend to not blow out teams as bad as they should this season (Pitt has historically won games ugly under Jamie Dixon). So now I have my three teams who have a combined 15-24 ATS record this season thus far.

For step two, simply fade these three teams after an ATS win in their next game. If you had done that all season long, you would be 12-3 ATS. That is a rock solid 80% clip. Basically, that means these three teams have only won back-to-back times against the spread three times all season long. For example, back on 11/12 Michigan State covered 20-point spread against Eastern Michigan but failed to cover the 17-point spread in their next outing against South Carolina. Simply wait patiently until one of these three teams cover and bet the other way their next game. Can’t get much simpler than that…

Smart Bets

Here is a list of teams to keep an eye on, as they have performed admirably thus far this season:

Purdue (10-3 ATS)
The Boilermakers have yet to get that much national attention, so cash in while you can. JaJuan Johnson is becoming a consistent force to be reckoned with inside and E’Twaun Moore is a big scorer on the perimeter.

Cincinnati (7-4 ATS)
The Bearcats have been a pleasant surprise to most, but I always HATED Lance Stephenson’s game. With Yancy Gates inside and Dion Dixon outside, plus a nice assortment of role players (7 guys average between 5.9 and 12.6 points), Mick Cronin has a nice squad trying to gain respect in the Big East.

Dayton (8-3 ATS)
Staying in Ohio, the Flyers are quietly putting together a very good season. After a bad loss early to Cincy, they have responded. Christ Wright and Chris Johnson form one of the nations best duos no one has heard of.

Tulane (6-0 ATS)
Probably the best kept secret in all of college basketball. New head coach Ed Conroy has installed his version of the Princeton offense and has a great mix of interchangeable parts to properly utilize the system (4 of top 5 scorers are between 6’5 and 6’7).

Temple (10-4 ATS)
The Owls continue to win under head coach Fran Dunphy, who has this squad playing great defense (held opponents under 60 points in 9 of 14 games).

Drexel (9-3 ATS)
The Dragons are playing great and deserve our attention, but so does the CAA as a whole. Who would have thought this was a RPI Top 10 conference?

Smart Fades

Mississippi State (1-10 ATS)
It has been a total mess since the end of last season…

Saint Louis (2-9 ATS)
Get well soon, Rick Majerus.

San Diego (2-12 ATS)
Same town as Aztecs, not quite the same results…

Arizona State (2-11 ATS)
Basically either they don’t win or they win UGLY!

Texas Tech (2-9 ATS)
Over/Under at 6.5 for calls Pat makes weekly crying for Daddy (Bob Knight) to come back.

Oklahoma (2-7 ATS)
Put this bunch in a UAPB jersey and no one could tell…

Everyone seems to get so much enjoyment out of bowl season, no matter who you are. For the coaches, it is a wonderful recruiting tool and an opportunity to get an extra month of practice in. For the players, they get all those nice gifts on the house (PS3, Xbox, etc.) and one last opportunity to showcase their talents on the national stage. For the universities, they cash in on a pretty hefty payday from whichever bowl they were selected to play in. For the local media of each team, they basically get a free vacation to wherever the game happens to be played at so they can “cover” the game. For the advertisers, they get one more chance to stick their logo on something and help give the bowl they are sponsoring a name that offers such great prestige and tradition (you know, like the Meinke Car Care Bowl). For the fans, because if there weren’t bowl games the men would have to actually make casual conversation with the rest of the family over the holidays instead of staring intently at the television. But most importantly…

FOR THE DEGENERATE GAMBLERS OUT THERE!!!

During bowl season, college football bettors have daily action instead of patiently waiting for Saturday to roll back around. That doesn’t mean you should get action down on every bowl game, as several of these games you might as well flip a coin. Here are some basic tips to get you started:

Avoid Big Spreads
In most cases, just deciphering who is going to win the game during bowl season is tough enough and favorites have been miserable covering double digit spreads. Many times, the heavy underdog embraces the role which leads me to…

Which Team Cares More
Not every team is happy to just make a bowl, maybe they got snubbed and could care less about the game while their opponent is making a bowl appearance for the first time this century. This can also be impacted by the status of the coaching staff, as the head coach fighting for his job will probably get more out of his troops than the lame duck interim coach.

Location, Location, Location
Many bowls, for the purpose of selling tickets, are not above selecting a local team to participate in their game. Take into account which team had to travel further and how many fans will be accompanying them.

Conference Power Ratings
I always go through and chart every conference from best to worst. Then I chart every team within a conference from first to last. Now, I can go through matchups and, for example, see that the #2 SEC school is matched up against the #5 ACC school. In this example, we have a team higher in the standings from a tougher conference against a slightly above average team in a lesser conference so the edge clearly goes to the SEC #2.

Alright, time for picks!!!

Utah Utes (+17.5) covers vs. Boise State Broncos
The Utes aren’t all that great, but they ALWAYS show up in bowl games. Also, referring back to our basic rules, the Broncos don’t care about this game. They had national title aspirations and now have to settle for a third-tier bowl. I expect Utah to get out to an early lead and for Boise State to wake up just in time to win the game. Boise State 34-31

Toledo Rockets (-1.5) covers vs. Florida International Golden Panthers
Here we have a 6-6 Sun Belt school basically playing in an 8-4 MAC schools back yard. Toledo to Detroit is just a hop and a skip. The Rockets have a much more impressive resume, including a nice win at Purdue (relatively speaking…this is MAC vs. Sun Belt we are talking about) plus a 7-1 record in MAC play. Eric Page is a dynamic playmaker at wide receiver and in the return game for the Rockets. I like Toledo to win comfortably here. Toledo 31-20

Iowa Hawkeyes (+3) covers vs. Missouri Tigers
I love taking teams that have a senior QB and an “Us Against The World” mentality. Everyone is saying what a disappointing season it was for Iowa and how this set the program back. While that is all well and good, senior QB Rick Stanzi will play terrific one last time. Consider Stanzi threw 25 touchdowns compared to only 4 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, I like Iowa’s talented defensive line, led by Adrian Clayborn, to wreak havoc. Most would consider this a major upset but I think they were a good team that suffered an unfortunate 3-game losing streak at the end of the season. My power ratings didn’t change that much. Iowa 27-24

Baylor Bears (-1) covers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Neither team player well down the stretch, but I like Baylor for two reasons: the game is being played in Houston and Robert Griffin is a beast. I could lie about it and pretend to look up a bunch of cool stats but that is the cold, hard truth. The team with the better record, better quarterback, and home field advantage is only a 1-point favorite? Yeah, I’ll go with Baylor. Baylor 34-24

Tennessee Volunteers (+1.5) covers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Vols are not perceived as a good team, but they played very strong down the stretch winning their last 4 games and covering their last 5 spreads. Due to consecutive coaching changes, time was needed to transition to a new scheme. Not that they are a great team yet, but they are moving in the right direction where as the Tar Heels are a complete mess. I don’t expect them to show up here. Oh, did I mention this game was in Nashville? Tennessee 28-21

Florida Gators (-7.5) covers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Neither Florida nor Penn State had the season we are accustomed to, however there is a big difference between a 7-5 SEC school and a 7-5 Big Ten school. Sorry, facts are facts. Also, this will be Urban Meyer’s last game coaching Florida so I would anticipate a motivated bunch. With the game being played in Tampa, there should be just a few Gator fans. Florida 38-17

I love college fantasy football, it is like pro fantasy football…only on steroids. It is like the difference between chess and checkers. Is checkers fun? Yeah. Is it as mentally demanding as chess? Not even close. However, depending on how obsessed with sports you are, that may be something that is perfectly okay with you. You may like the simplicity of pro fantasy football and play in part because you are in a league with friends so it is a great excuse to…umm…bond over cold beverages every Sunday afternoon. It is why knowledgeable sports fans are driven crazy when ESPN talks about nothing but Brett Favre all day, yet the ratings are through the roof.

Why is this?

Because your average guy just wants to enjoy the game and have a good time. He doesn’t read the sports page first thing every morning when he gets up, he doesn’t have ESPN Insider/Rivals/Scout subscriptions, nor does he scour the internet looking for golden nuggets of information every week. And you know what: that is okay. In fact, he might be better off. Ignorance is bliss. He is a just a fan, watching the game without a care in the world.

I say that to say this, while I love college fantasy football, maybe it is not meant to be. Maybe it can’t reach the level I once thought it could because your average sports fan just isn’t willing to invest the time to become knowledgeable of 120 teams. Who can blame them? Who has the time? Earlier, I made the comparison of pro and college to checkers and chess. Well, it is time for the truth. I don’t know how to play chess and I don’t want to learn, it sounds exhausting. So who am I to judge if you don’t want to take the time to learn college fantasy football? Wouldn’t I be a hypocrite?

This concept is why many businesses fail and, yet at the same time, it really is so simple. Business owners can’t understand why average consumers don’t appreciate their brilliance as much as they do. In other words, to someone who lives and breathes sports, the idea of college fantasy football is awesome because the possibilities are endless. To just your average sports fan, it sounds…you guessed it…exhausting to learn about all those players and follow all those teams every single week.

I’ve said since Day 1 that I think college fantasy football can succeed but it has to change its model. It has to focus on the customization that it can offer and regionalize the product. The emphasis needs to be for every region of the country to have leagues made up of just the conference(s) in their region, such as the SEC or Big Ten if you live in the Southeast or Midwest. My reasoning is simple, college football fans are not necessarily passionate about college football as a whole but they are instead passionate about their team and their conference. While this option is available already, it is not widely known. It is kind of like how nobody knows you can get an ice cream cone at McDonald’s for 59 cents (or two for a dollar) because they are too busy trying to sell you a McFlurry. How awesome is an ice cream cone for only 59 cents? Just as awesome as an SEC-only fantasy league to a die-hard SEC football fan. My point is that sports fans, just like all consumers, have to be aware of their options before they can make an informed decision. Remember when I said this was simple?

I’m pulling for the college fantasy football industry as much as anybody. Being a participant in the FCFI (Fantasy College Football Invitational), I consider myself an expert. That being said, without a few changes, it might not reach its full potential. I sure hope I’m wrong.

My sincere apologies for disappearing for a couple of weeks but the combination of work, moving, and planning a wedding was just too much to overcome for me to make my regular blog posts. Unfortunately, all of the things I mentioned above trump posting picks and talking about fantasy football. To some, that may sound outrageous but it should make it much more obvious why you are not planning a wedding and would settle for…well you get the idea. Anyways, moving on to tonight’s game.

The consensus has been that these teams are both “unproven” and it is “unknown” what will happen in tonight’s game. I completely disagree and think it is all right there in front of you. Has either team beaten a powerhouse yet? No, but have they played identical schedules? Wrong again. Let me explain.

Texas A&M (3-0):
Stephen F. Austin 48-7
Louisiana Tech 48-16
Florida International 27-20

SFA is an FCS school and the other two teams are from a non-BCS conference and have a combined 1-6 record so far this season. While I will say FIU is better than their 0-3 record suggests, it still should not take a 21-point fourth quarter rally to escape from a 20-6 deficit at home. This reminds me of last season when the Aggies were undefeated and had been putting up cute offensive numbers but then got whipped by Arkansas 47-19.

Oklahoma State (3-0):
Washington State 65-17
Troy 41-38
Tulsa 65-28

While none of those three were ranked or are considered powerhouses, I can’t help but think it is much stronger schedule than that of the Aggies. Washington State is at the bottom of the Pac-10 but I have to think they are better than SFA. If the Aggies struggled so mightily against Florida International, what would fellow Sun Belt conference member Troy have done to them? As for Tulsa, if you remove the Oklahoma State game, their other 3 games compare similarly to A&M. Tulsa lost a 51-49 heartbreaker to East Carolina on the road (last-second Hail Mary) but beat the other two inferior opponents soundly. If A&M had gone on the road to ECU, I can’t say with certainty they win that game. However, the Cowboys pounded Tulsa 65-28.

All of that is way too much Team A vs. Team B so Team B should beat Team C. I realize that but Oklahoma State is at home and they have played a tougher schedule. It also doesn’t hurt that they have pounded that tougher schedule more than the Aggies have pounded a light schedule.

I learned a long time ago when both teams run similar styles, it is actually less likely an upset will occur. Some think because they do similar things they will pose matchup problems or be able to recognize what the other is doing, I completely disagree. What I have always found is when teams are built the same way, the better team wins and wins big because they are not going to get beat playing their own game with superior talent. In this instance, the better team is also at home.

Look at the playmakers for the Cowboys, Justin Blackmon leads the nation in receiving yards per game and in touchdown receptions (despite playing only 3 games to everyone else’s 4). Kendall Hunter is second in rushing yards per game and is actually the top running back (Michigan QB Denard Robinson leads the nation in rushing yards per game). If Hunter hadn’t only gotten 11 carries against Tulsa because the game got out of hand, he would likely have even better numbers to brag about. Lastly, Brandon Weeden has been fantastic . He isn’t the dual-option threat that Zac Robinson was but his arm has been more than enough so far.

Thursday Free Pick:
Oklahoma State -2.5

The NFL so is much different to handicap than college football and a large reason for that is because of the smaller number of games and the large amount of money on those games. As money pours in on games, the lines get “sharper” and it is much harder to find value. For the opening weekend, I tend to follow trends. The games are usually lower scoring, so scouring for good Unders is usually a smart way to go. Laying a lot of points is usually a bad idea as well, since we really aren’t sure how good (or how bad…) each team is going to be just yet. I’ve got four plays for the opening NFL weekend. Enjoy!

*Risk $55 to win $50 on All Wagers

Browns/Bucs Under 37
This has all the makings of a snoozefest, with the quarterbacks involved being Jake Delhomme and a “probable” Josh Freeman for Tampa Bay. Neither team has explosive playmakers and will have to stay mistake free to put together long scoring drives. I expect the Bucs to be a run-first team and for the defense to hang tough at home. As far as who wins, it should be a close game but the smart money is on the Under here.

Dolphins (-3) cover vs. Bills
Miami is the far superior team here, as the Bills are competing with the Rams for worst team in the league honors. I expect a heavy dose of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground and some plays down the field to Brandon Marshall off play-action. The Bills offensive line is still a mess and they have very little to fear outside of Lee Evans and C.J. Spiller. Take the Dolphins.

Raiders/Titans Under 40.5
Both teams want to run the football and play good defense. I would be very surprised if either team lit up the scoreboard in this matchup. I like Jason Campbell to improve the passing game and stabilize the offense but let’s not get carried away and expect too much too soon. With Vince Young at QB, the Titans become a heavy running team and more of short-to-intermediate passing game. I expect a low scoring game with lots of handoffs to the running backs. Take the Under here.

Ravens (+2.5) covers vs. Jets
The Jets are not the Super Bowl contenders people seem to think they are. The first unit really struggled in the preseason, which I know is not always a good indicator of regular season success but it has caused me to be concerned. On the other side, I love how the Ravens matchup in this game. I expect them to welcome Rex Ryan’s aggressive blitzing schemes and exploit it for big plays. Ray Rice will be the glue for Joe Flacco, as he makes huge plays in both the running game and catching balls out of the backfield. I like the Ravens to win straight up here.