Thursday night started off solid, with Minnesota covering the number and Utah getting the push in overtime. That leaves me at 1-0-1 ATS thus far. For this weekend, I’ve got a large slate of games that I like. I normally only take a small number of games but the opening couple of weeks of the season I usually find the most value because, quite frankly, there is never a time in the season when the public perception of the teams is further from reality. After all the teams have played several games, that gap closes and the lines get sharper. Keep in mind, the lines are made with the intent of “luring” the public into betting the wrong way or at the very least to get 50-50 action. To do that, you don’t make a line based off an exact power ranking. Nope, you base it off of where you think people will bet if the line is placed at one number over another. It is based on the public’s perception. Keep this in mind and never let the line deter you from making a pick if you believe your research is good.

Bankroll: $995
College Football Record: 1-0-1 ATS (+$50)
NFL Preseason Record: 11-10-1 ATS (-$55)

Florida (-36.5) covers vs. Miami (OH)*Risk $55 to win $50
The Gators have reloaded and this has some concerned. I’m the opposite, as I think they will let Brantley stay in longer to rack up numbers to “prove” that he is ready to step in and replace Tim Tebow. I also remind everyone that Urban Meyer is still the coach and he takes pride in destroying teams by as much as he possibly can. This is usually very helpful and makes bettors less nervous about the backdoor cover. I like the Gators here.

Texas (-31) covers vs. Rice*Risk $55 to win $50
The Longhorns will destroy the Owls here, as this is lopsided matchup. This game is on a neutral field in Houston and, while Rice is located there, we all know there will be more Texas fans then Rice fans. The Owls were 2-10 last season. The Longhorns played in the national championship. I see no way Texas allows Rice to breathe in this one. Take the Longhorns here.

Clemson (-27) covers vs. North Texas*Risk $55 to win $50
The Tigers return a strong nucleus of players, minus C.J. Spiller, and are far superior to the Mean Green in this matchup. Due to an injury in the offseason, Riley Dodge has been moved from quarterback to wide receiver because he no longer has free range of motion in his arm without it causing extreme pain. So to recap, a bad Sun Belt team breaking in a new QB on the road against top tier ACC school. This has blowout written all over it. Take Clemson.

Troy (-14) covers vs. Bowling Green*Risk $55 to win $50
The Trojans have been dynamic at home in recent memory, as they are 10-0 SU and 7-2 ATS (no line vs. Alcorn State in ‘08) over the last two years at Movie Gallery Stadium. With Bowling Green trying to recover from heavy losses at key positions, this has the makings of a massacre. I expect this one to be blown wide open early and for Troy to never look back. Take the Trojans.

Northwestern (-3.5) covers vs. Vanderbilt*Risk $55 to win $50
The Wildcats are a team that usually flies under the radar in situations like this. I’m not sure people really comprehend how bad Vanderbilt is going to be this season. Keep in mind, it took overtime for Auburn to survive Northwestern the last time we saw them. The same can’t be said about Vanderbilt, as they have little returning and have a interim coach running the show. Northwestern is 17-9 over the past two seasons, it is time we showed them a little respect. Better yet don’t, I will…

Oregon State (+13.5) covers vs. TCU*Risk $55 to win $50
I’m a big fan of TCU but I just think there is no way this line should be this big. Oregon State has playmakers and a great head coach in Mike Riley. Horned Frog quarterback Andy Dalton leads a talented bunch but I fully expect this Saturday night primetime matchup on ESPN to a close game that goes down the wire. TCU should win, but expect the Beavers to hang around and keep within striking distance.

Cincinnati (+2.5) covers vs. Fresno State*Risk $55 to win $50
The Bearcats are not going to fall off the map just because Brian Kelley left. Central Michigan didn’t drop off any when Butch Jones became their head coach after Kelley left, which leads me to believe this team will stay competitive once again this season. Zach Collaros was very good in his four starts last season and they return virtually all their playmakers except Mardy Gilyard. Expect Armon Binns to continue to emerge as a premier wide receiver in the country. I like Cincinnati to win straight up here.

So it is finally time to start picking college football games and I’m pretty excited. It is also means college fantast football is underway and it just happens to work out that I’m taking on last year’s FCFI champion, CollegeFootballGeek.com, in the first week of the premier college fantasy football expert league. CFG defeated me in the championship game last year so maybe I can luck out and take him down this time around. I’ve got my fingers crossed…

Anyways, back to the picks. I’ve got two plays for tonight that I like and, here shortly, you will understand exactly why. I’ve got 6 plays for this weekend and I’ll post those tomorrow. For now, here is tonight’s picks. Enjoy!

Bankroll: $945
Preseason Record: 11-10-1 ATS
College Football Record: 0-0 ATS

Minnesota (-1.5) over Middle Tennessee*Risk $55 to win $50
The dynamics of this game changed dramatically when the news broke that Dwight Dasher was not going to be playing. Dasher is the far and away most important player on the Blue Raider roster, as he led the team in rushing and passing. Now, they go from a dynamic playmaker like Dasher to Logan Kilgore who has never taken a snap at the Division I level. I like senior QB Adam Weber to lead the Gophers to a victory, despite breaking in a new defense.

Utah (-3) over Pitt*Risk $55 to win $50
The Utes are undervalued here, as I had this game closer to 6 points. Pitt is not as good as everyone thinks, they just have two names everyone recognizes in Dion Lewis and Jonathon Baldwin. You have to keep in mind they are breaking in a new players at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive back. The lack of experience at QB and along the OL are not recipes for success on the road and the lack of experience in the secondary could be a problem against Utah’s spread attack. I like the Utes to win comfortably tonight.

Here we are in week 3 of the preseason and, as bettors know, this is the last week of the preseason to get down any action. This is for two reasons. First, the last week of the preseason is a crapshoot because only backups play that are trying to make those final roster spots. Second, the college football season starts and there is much better action there than the preseason games (not to mention a lot more fun to watch). For this last week of preseason picks, I’ve got 5 strong plays. Enjoy!

Bankroll: $905
Preseason Record: 8-8-1 ATS

Colts/Packers Over 44.5*Risk $55 to win $50
This has all the makings of a shootout, as both offenses are explosive and neither defense is anything to write home about. In simple terms, with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers this one could be close to the Over by halftime. I expect the Colts defense to continue to get lit up, especially with the way Rodgers has been playing so far. Consider the Colts have given up 34 and 37 points in the first two weeks and didn’t play near the offense that the Packers possess. This has OVER written all over it.

New York Jets -4.5*Risk $55 to win $50
The Washington Redskins will not have Donovan McNabb and I just don’t see them being able to stay with the Jets in this one. Expect the defense to harass Rex Grossman and force a few turnovers, leading to an ugly yet decisive win for the Jets. This seems like a spot where the Redskins will not be up for this game and give a lackluster effort. Take J-E-T-S in this one.

Chargers/Saints Over 42.5*Risk $55 to win $50
In this situation, the Chargers have come out and said they are going to treat this road game as a test to prepare for the regular season just like they did last year. For those that are curious, the Chargers lost 24-27 to the Falcons but not before the first unit racked up 21 first half points. Against the Saints, one would expect a high scoring affair here. Take the Over.

Jaguars/Bucs Under 36.5*Risk $55 to win $50
Josh Freeman going down was a huge blow to the Bucs, as the backup quarterbacks are a glaring concern. I don’t expect the Bucs to be able to generate much offense here but they will hang around at home in a low scoring affair that is probably not going to be fun to watch. The Jaguars secondary has been suspect but the Bucs don’t have the weapons outside to exploit that weakness. Place your bet and watch something else, this will be a snoozefest. Take the Under.

Tennessee Titans +3*Risk $55 to win $50
The Titans are a strong preseason team, while the Panthers are one of the weaker preseason teams. I was projecting the Titans to be favored in this matchup, so getting points is a solid value here. I expect Tennessee to win straight up, as they should improve to 3-0 ATS in the preseason while the Panthers drop 0-2 SU and ATS. Take the Titans here.

This is a great compilation of drunk Cowboys and Chargers fans. Pretty funny stuff, particularly the hammered guy talking about how Jerry Jones overcompensates(4:52)…yes, that is exactly what you think I’m talking about.

Titans -4
Over 37

Basically, one bad day has ruined what would otherwise be a profitable start to the season. I am 5-2-1 on every other day but an 0-3 Sunday put me at 5-5-1 ATS overall. For this week, I’ve got four plays that I feel great about, including my biggest play of the young season. Rest easy and cash in on this week’s picks.

Bankroll: $975 (-$25)
Record: 5-5-1 ATS
Picks:

Buccaneers/Chiefs Under 34*Risk $55 to win $50
These two offenses combined for 17 points last week and have not given me any reason to believe they will improve this week. For the Bucs, they tend to make games ugly at home and this should be no exception. I expect for Tampa Bay to keep it on the ground on offense and be able to stop the Chiefs. The Under seems like the smart play here.

Cleveland Browns -3*Risk $110 to win $100
The Browns look positioned to destroy the St. Louis Rams here at home. I expect this one to be decided early and to be over by halftime. Sam Bradford is learning the ropes and then neither Jay Feeley or Keith Null strikes fear in opposing defenses. Meanwhile, I expect Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace to play well enough to get this one over by thee fourth quarter. I like the Browns here.

New York Jets -1*Risk $55 to win $50
The Jets are the far superior team to the Panthers and I expect that to show here. Not only are the first units of the Jets superior but I would also give the nod to the backups as well. Expect a boring game that ultimately sees the Jets emerge victorious over the Carolina Panthers. Take the Jets.

Texans/Saints Over 41*Risk $55 to win $50
Both of these teams have high-powered offenses and that should take this one well over the total. In fact, this is a game that I could see going over the total early, much the same way the Bills-Colts game did Thursday night. Both Matt Schaub and Drew Brees are playing at a high level while neither defense has the talent to slow down the other. The Over seems like the obvious play here.

All I can about Sunday’s picks is…um…oops?? It had been smooth sailing (4-2-1 ATS) but yesterday wiped out those profits. You should never panic though, we won’t bet heavier trying to win it all right back. I’ve got just one play for tonight. Enjoy!

Giants/Jets Over 33*Risk $55 to win $50
This is a rare case where both teams actually care about a preseason game due to the whole same city rivalry thing. I expect both teams to put points on the board tonight and be competitive. Expect an oddly fun game to watch considering it is the preseason.

So after studying all day as if it were a final exam, the Fantasy College Football Invitational is finally over and now I’m writing this as I’m trying to soak in what just happened 400 picks later. Yes, you read that correctly. There are 20 teams and the draft was 20 rounds. The draft took over 3 hours to complete. It went by decently quick, as I yelled at the television while the Broncos squandered a 14-0 lead and failed to cover the number. Anyways, I feel great about my team, particularly the early picks. I landed just about every running back and wide receiver I was targeting. I’m a little nervous about quarterback, but I’m hoping I landed a late round steal in San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley.

The challenging part of this draft that is different from normal drafts is that everyone has their OWN independant rankings and they are going to vary greatly with 120 teams, differing draft strategies, and just simply because we are all from different regions of the country. With the NFL, you occasionally a see a player go more than 10-15 picks earlier or later than his ranking suggests. However, with college, some guys go 50 picks or more away from where someone else may have had them ranked. To counter this, I took everyone’s rankings that I could find plus a sample mock draft that took place between several of the experts and cross-referenced who was selected around the areas I was drafting.

For example, because I had the 12th pick, I compared who was ranked or drafted between 10 and 15. From there, I looked at who I thought would be available and who I liked the best in that range to get my target list for each round. For the first round, I was hoping either Donald Buckram or Vai Taua would slide and then I was looking at LaMichael James if neither of those two were available. I wasn’t comfortable taking a wide receiver in the first round and knew the “elite” quarterbacks would be gone. It turned out Buckram and James were off the board, so I took Taua. 

Here is a round by round breakdown of my picks:

Round 1, Pick 12:
RB Vai Taua, Nevada

Truthfully, I was tickled to death to land Taua at 12. When I learned I was picking at 12, I was concerned I was in no man’s land where I would have to reach a little bit to get someone that I really wanted. I had Taua last season and, when healthy, he was fantastic. Considering he was splitting carries in the backfield with Luke Lippincott, he should be primed and ready for a monster season now that he is the featured back.

Round 2, Pick 29:
RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State

Again, I was just sticking to my board and excited to land Thomas this late. He was a player I was considering in the first round had Taua not slid back to me. Now, it works out that I land him in round 2 so I couldn’t pass on him. Noel Devine was a player I was targeting here but he was long gone so it came down to either Thomas or Ryan Mallett. I ultimately decided to wait on quarterbacks, so Thomas was the choice. With Taua and Thomas, I’m now rock solid at running back.

Round 3, Pick 52:
WR Armon Binns, Cincinnati

Binns was able to put up huge numbers despite playing alongside Mardy Gilyard last season. Now, as the top option for Zach Collaros, I expect him to be an elite fantasy wideout. Landing him at this stage of the draft was a pleasant surprise, as I expected him to go off the board in 40s. The reason I went running back first is because my opinion of the top fantasy wide receivers differs from everyone else it appears (shocking I know, right?). I wasn’t in love with guys like DeAndre Brown, Dwayne Harris, or Mohamed Sanu that went in the earlier rounds. In my opinion, Binns is the much safer pick. Binns caught at least 1 touchdown pass in his last 9 games of the season, including 383 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 4-game stretch Collaros filled in as the starter in place of the injured (and now departed) Tony Pike.   

Round 4, Pick 69:
WR Keith Smith, Purdue

Here is an example of Value Based Drafting. I really like Smith and think he is a candidate to be the best fantasy wide receiver at the end of the year. However, because no one else agrees with me, I waited to take him here. If I went with my board, I wouldn’t have been able to get him and Binns. This applies to any fantasy draft for any sport. Only draft a player in the round you have to, there is no reason to draft a guy several rounds earlier than anyone else would. With Robert Marve now Smith’s quarterback, I expect him to improve on his 1100 yard, 6 TD ‘09 campaign. I still don’t think Purdue can stop anybody and should find themselves either trailing or trading scores, which bodes well for Smith (and me…).

Round 5, Pick 92:
QB Christian Ponder, Florida State

This is the challenge of a deep draft like this, where do I take a quarterback? I hated waiting this long but I feel like waiting was the best value. Since I was unable to land Keenum or Kaepernick, it was better just to wait and grab the guys I like later on. Ponder is poised to have a good season and be consistent, but I’ll need some of my other quarterback draft picks to come through if I’m to improve on last season’s runner-up finish.

Round 6, Pick 109:
QB Josh Nesbitt, Georgia Tech

Nesbitt was a 1,000 yard rusher last season and racked up 18 rushing touchdowns so even though he doesn’t get the traditional passing numbers he should be a productive fantasy performer. Nesbitt is unlikely to be a guy I play every week but he should rack up huge numbers when they a play an opponent that struggles to stop the run, in particular now that Jonathon Dwyer is gone because that leaves more red zone touches up for grabs.

Round 7, Pick 132:
WR Donovan Varner, Duke

Varner was very productive last season and should be a solid third receiver that I can use as a fill-in or flex from time to time. While he isn’t a flashy player, it is a safe pick. I was targeting him and was very happy he was still around when I was drafting here. I was concerned I missed an opportunity when I didn’t take him in Round 6 but, fortunately, he was still on the board in Round 7.

Round 8, Pick 149:
RB Vince Murray, Navy

While his position in the Navy offense will be as a full back, I’ll have him in my lineup as a running back. Last year, quarterback Ricky Dobbs racked up 27 rushing touchdowns and Murray only had 6 rushing touchdowns. I’m expecting those numbers to balance out a little more this year and that should lead to Murray eclipsing 10 touchdowns while hovering around 1,000 yards rushing.

Round 9, Pick 172:
QB Ryan Lindley, San Diego State

I won’t repeat my Value Based Drafting speech. Instead, I’ll leave you with this little nugget of wisdom: Lindley is 8th among returning quarterbacks in passing yards per game. This is a guy I would have been comfortable drafting much earlier and will likely start most weeks because I really like the Aztec offense. Head coach Brady Hoke has this offense ready to break out.

Round 10, Pick 189:
RB Al-Terek McBurse, Purdue

Due to Ralph Bolden’s injury, the running back position is now in the hands of McBurse. Like I mentioned before with the addition of Robert Marve, I expect the Boilermakers offense to be potent this season and that should mean opportunities for McBurse as well. At this point in the draft, I felt like the risk/reward was worth it.

Round 11, Pick 212:
WR Torrey Smith, Maryland

Smith is a dynamic playmaker and should be the focal point of the Terp’s passing game this season. If he stays healthy and Maryland gets consistent quarterback play, he has a chance at being a top fantasy wide receiver. My fingers are crossed…

Round 12, Pick 229:
TE Luke Stocker, Tennessee

At this point in the draft, it gets harder and harder to have wonderful things to say about every player. Stocker is a solid tight end and, overall, I felt this was a weak year for tight ends so I waited until now to grab one.

Round 13, Pick 252:
RB Da’Rel Scott, Maryland

Scott has the ability to be a stud, but has had trouble staying healthy. I’m taking a flyer on him late and hoping for the best. My team is very solid at running back and I can absorb the risk here.

Round 14, Pick 269:
South Carolina D/ST

The Gamecocks have a very good defense and I expect them to be an elite unit this season. In the SEC, they should find themselves in plenty of good ol’ fashion dogfights.

Round 15, Pick 292:
WR Terrance Tolliver, LSU

Tolliver is the top target in the Tigers passing attack, which doesn’t mean as much as it used to but he should approach 1,000 yards receiving.

Round 16, Pick 309:
RB Tre’ Newton, Texas

The Longhorns are going to run the ball more traditionally this season and I expect Newton to benefit from that change in philosophy.

Round 17, Pick 332:
Boston College D/ST

Quietly, I expect the Eagles to have a very good defense this season. They should be up towards the top of the ACC. They are along the lines of Wisconsin and Oregon State in that they usually get very little preseason recognition then end up being pretty good.

Round 18, Pick 349:
QB Matt Schilz, Bowling Green

This is a complete shot in the dark but I’m hoping he can step in and keep the Falcons passing game explosive. Supposedly, they are switching to more of a West Coast offense but there is very little else to pick from at this point in the draft so it is worth the upside. Keep in mind Bowling Green was sixth in passing yards per game last season.

Round 19, Pick 372:
TE Marcus Green, Mississippi State

Green is a very talented athlete and I think he just might break out this season. My team’s weakest unit is at tight end so his production would be much appreciated.

Round 20, Pick 389:
K Daniel Murray, Iowa

I place no emphasis on kickers, I really couldn’t care less but they make us have one…

Yesterday finished up as a profitable day, but just barely. The Cardinals looked dead and buried, as they were down 16-0, but rallied to win 19-16 with 19 unanswered points in the fourth. I’ll chalk that up to good fortune more so then any expert analysis from me. I felt good about the Bears and they looked good early but failed to pull through. Charlie Whitehurst was able to get the Seahawks offense moving and a late score by the Titans pushed the total over the number. The Dolphins pushed with a 3-point win and we finished 2-1-1 ATS for the night. For as up and down a night it was, I’ll gladly take it. For today, I’ve got a nice 3-pack to cash in on. Take a look.

Bankroll: $1090 (+$90, Up 9%)
Record: 4-2-1 ATS (67%)
Picks:

San Francisco 49ers/Indianapolis Colts Under 33*Risk $55 to win $50
With the Colts, they don’t really care about the pre-season. They won’t play Peyton Manning very much and the quarterback depth behind him is suspect. Remember when Curtis Painter came in late against the Jets in the regular season last year and immediately choked that game away? If the spread hadn’t grown to -4 in favor of San Francisco, there might have been some value there but that is just too many points to lay in the preseason. As for the 49ers, they have Alex Smith and David Carr but inexperienced gunslingers Nate Davis and Jarrett Brown are “battling” for the third spot. None of that screams offense to me, so I’ll take the Under.

Denver Broncos +4*Risk $55 to win $50
Denver Broncos/Cincinnati Bengals Under 32.5*Risk $55 to win $50
Quietly, I think the Bengals are one of worst preseason teams in the NFL this season. The first unit is still figuring out all the new pieces and then the backup quarterbacks are terrible. As for the Broncos, everyone always just seems to forget about Kyle Orton and write him off. This guy has done nothing but win games for Chicago and Denver, usually doing so with limited talent around him. Brady Quinn has always performed well in the preseason, despite his struggles in the regular season, and then there is Tim Tebow who should be used in limited capacity or in specific packages. I like the Broncos to at least keep it close and potentially win straight up in a close, low scoring game that is full of field goals instead of touchdowns.