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Keeping the 2011 NFL Draft in Perspective

Sunday, May 1st, 2011

By Ron Jumper

Whenever the draft rolls around, I always am fascinated with the thought process of not only the NFL teams but also the draft analysts and media in general. The lack of genuine understanding from the average guy that works in the media, particularly at the local level, of how the draft process works and everything that goes into it is laughable. As for the NFL scouts and general managers, it blows my mind how the draft is almost a sport of its own, much like recruiting is at the college level, as opposed to being an extension of your overall strategy for how you plan to build your specific franchise into a winner.

Getting all caught up in “best player available” and what have you, which for the record can work if executed correctly, often earns a nice “grade” the day after but doesn’t always translate to success on the field when the season rolls around. With this draft in particular, giving any team’s draft a grade really is incomplete anyways because there hasn’t been free agency due to the lockout. If you choose to address needs by adding veterans then draft best player available that combo can work, it once again is just about the execution more than the strategy. However, not every team has that luxury. Think about a small market team that isn’t able to compete financially, for them the playing field isn’t level.

The best example I can give is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They DO NOT sign free agents, it is not an option due to their financial situation. For them, the draft is how they address their roster from a needs standpoint. They have no choice but to address needs as opposed to best player available, which is what they did in this draft. Coming in, GM Mark Dominik made it very obvious they HAD to get a pass rusher in this draft. The front office and scouting department was basically just trying to pinpoint what defensive ends would be available when they picked at 20. There was some talk of moving up to improve their odds of landing an elite DE but, ultimately, I’m sure they didn’t pull the trigger because they didn’t want to give up any picks because those are at a premium to them more so than any franchise in the league. The Bucs ended up taking defensive ends in the first two rounds, clearly addressing their biggest need.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Lions landed a stud in DT Nick Fairley. At different points in the draft process, Fairley was looked at as a top 3 talent. However, how does he help them? They already have a very good defensive line, with some guy named Ndamukong Suh. I just can’t imagine Fairley makes them much better, where as they could really use a LT to protect Mathew Stafford or open up running lanes. Long story short, the Lions spent some money in free agency last year while the Bucs focused on specific needs and team chemistry on a tight budget. The Lions were much more competitive than in years past but the Bucs won 10 games and are a team on the rise. The point is that having a concise strategy and executing it usually works better than blindly going after talent and throwing money at B-list free agents.

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Quarterback Rankings All Over The Board

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

By Ron Jumper

I’m trying to figure out where to even start…

The 2011 NFL draft quarterback class has been a wild roller coaster ride all season long. It just seems like every week a new quarterback would emerge in the top 5 and the guys that I view as the actual quarterback prospects get pushed further and further back. Never have I been more confused, granted I’ve only seriously covered the NFL draft for 6 years, but the fact still remains my mind has officially been blown.

I’m going to give a very simple analogy, look at all the top quarterbacks in the NFL: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Rothleisberger, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, and Matt Schaub. Even look at the young guns like Sam Bradford, Mathew Stafford, and Josh Freeman. Now, of all those guys, only ONE relies on his legs and that is Michael Vick. Can Aaron Rodgers or Josh Freeman take off when they need to? Yes, but let’s not get carried away and call them scramblers. To be a successful NFL quarterback, it is obvious there is a pretty clear cut prototype. They need to be able to play under center, stay in the pocket, dissect the defense pre-snap, and deliver the ball quickly in tight windows to the correct read.

Now, with that prototype in mind, who fits the mold in this draft class? Let’s take a look at the latest quarterback the “experts” have anointed as the top prospect in this draft: Blaine Gabbert. I just don’t see it. While he has nice size (6’5 240), nothing else about him says franchise quarterback. Look at the numbers, Gabbert only had 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. More importantly, his yards per attempt was 6.7 (which ranked just 78th in the country) and his QB rating was 127 (good for 64th nationally), both of which are very mediocre. Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett, and Cam Newton were all in the top 10 in both of those categories, not to mention they also all three had at least 30 touchdown passes. When you consider all of this took place in a quarterback friendly system at Missouri in a conference like the Big 12 that, other than Nebraska, doesn’t believe in defense it doesn’t sound too impressive. Honestly tell me if you are a Bills, Panthers, or Cardinals fan that you will be drooling with anticipation over this guy come draft day? Give me a break…

Then there is Cam Newton. Think it through, while he is big and fast, what does that matter in the NFL? He hasn’t played under center and hasn’t had to learn how to read defenses since every pass play was one-read due to eight guys being in the box on defense. Don’t be an amateur and say defenses will have to do that in the NFL to stop him because I got news for you…they won’t. It is a complete leap of faith thinking he can become an NFL QB. At best, we can label him a “project” that will need several years of seasoning before we know what we are getting (think Vince Young).

Now, based on the criteria we’ve discussed, who best fits the mold? Who has great size? Who has outstanding numbers (yards, touchdowns, yard per attempt, QB rating)? Who has played in a pro-style offense against elite defenses? In my opinion, there is only one choice: Ryan Mallett.

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NBA Draft 2010: Lottery Breakdown

Sunday, June 20th, 2010

By Ron Jumper

Here is my breakdown of what I feel each lottery team should do with their draft choice (meaning this isn’t predicting what will happen). I have just accepted NBA general managers are crazy and get so wrapped in the draft process itself that they lose touch with actually making their basketball team better on the court where it matters. All the fuss about wingspan and upside, what about basketball IQ or production? I know not to get carried away with that, at the same time, because there are those typical “great college players” that don’t translate to the NBA and so on. However, sometimes it just feels like scouts and GMs just want to do it the hard way by having a project “develop” over three years so they can say “I told you so” or “look what I did” instead of just drafting a guy that could have been just as good much earlier in his career. At the top of the “maybe he isn’t a project and actually just sucks” list is Florida State C Solomon Alabi. For the life of me, I can’t understand why you’d rather have him than some of the other big men in the draft. I am very happy to see scouts coming to their senses and projecting Greg Monroe as a top 5 pick.

I still don’t understand the inconsistencies from year to year on how prospects are ranked. For example, why was Tyrus Thomas a top 5 pick and Epke Udoh is a projected borderline lottery pick? Udoh is taller, more experienced, and more skilled than Thomas was at this same stage. On the other side, while I love Gordon Hayward, can you really justify taking him in the top 10? How many guys like him have really panned out? We have seen plenty of guys like Gerald Henderson, Danillo Gallinari, or Joe Alexander get taken in the lottery only to be no more than role players. I see him struggling to find a position and he really isn’t a great shooter, especially not from NBA distance.

Anyways, on to my thoughts on the lottery:

1. Washington Wizards
PG John Wall, Kentucky

Take him and figure everything else out later. There is no telling what this roster will look like by opening day next season but rebuilding around Wall is a great way to start. If it were me, I’d trade Gilbert Arenas for anything I could get back in return. I’m talking a happy meal or even one of those Shake Weights, take it and run.

2. Philadelphia 76ers
PF Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech

Think about the 76ers roster, they need athletic big men than can play in an up-tempo style. If they can move Elton Brand, they should do it and just go with a young athletic big man like Favors. Many have Turner going here but I just don’t see why. You already have Andre Iguodala and have much more pressing needs elsewhere. In fact, my first choice would be to trade back and take a guy like James Anderson because they could use better outside shooting.

3. New Jersey Nets
PF/C Greg Monroe, Georgetown

The Nets are feeling the pressure to turn this around and win quickly, well adding Monroe is a great way to do that. He complements Lopez very well and is more than willing to be the second or third option offensively. While New Jersey was so bad last year, I do think they have enough talent to be decent sooner rather than later. Monroe would be a HUGE step in that direction.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves
SF Evan Turner, Ohio State

While I don’t see Turner being here on draft night, this is closer to where I would slot him. I look at his game and just don’t see it transitioning to the NBA the same way everyone else does. I see him more as a great college player who will be a good role player in the NBA instead of the All-Star everyone else seems to be projecting him to be. Either way, the Timberwolves clearly have enough point guards and are set inside with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love so small forward is the obvious way to go (which probably means they’ll draft DeMarcus Cousins instead).

5. Sacramento Kings
PG/SG Avery Bradley, Texas

This reminds me so much of when the Oklahoma City Thunder took Russell Westbrook instead of OJ Mayo or Jerryd Bayless, which worked out perfectly. Bradley is more content to be a defender and distributor, which is a necessity playing next to Tyreke Evans in the backcourt. This seems like a reach to most (then just trade back if possible) but team chemistry is so underrated in the draft process. Bradley would be an ideal fit, not to mention an instant upgrade over Beno Udrih.

6. Golden State Warriors
PF Epke Udoh, Baylor

This is highly unlikely to happen but it should. The Warriors could really use an athletic big man like Udoh, who could also play away from the basket in addition to being a shot blocking presence. This way, they can still play a wide open offense but might occasionally stop someone on defense. It makes sense to me, why am I the only that thinks this? I give up…

7. Detroit Pistons
PF/C DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky

Think about the old days of the “Bad Boys” and I really think a guy like Cousins would have fit in just fine. If the Pistons want to get their swagger back, adding pieces that fit what Joe Dumars is trying to do in terms of both personality and style is very important.

8. Los Angeles Clippers
SF Paul George, Fresno State

This guy is the real deal, with a silky smooth game and the ideal size for a wing player. George has the chance to be develop into the star of a young team like the Clippers. While a guy like Al-Farouq Aminu would probably help more in year one, George is the type of talent that could develop into a Joe Johnson or Caron Butler.

9. Utah Jazz
SF Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest

This is why every player has a different value to every team. Aminu could add much needed toughness and athleticism to the Jazz, as well as an insurance policy for the often injured Andrei Kirilenko. Utah really needs a shot blocking center but there isn’t one worth taking at this point in the draft.

10. Indiana Pacers
PG Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky

Not sure why teams are falling out of love with Bledsoe, as he would be a much more obvious lottery pick had he not shared the backcourt with John Wall. The Pacers need to upgrade this position, as it seems T.J. Ford has seen better days. They could also upgrade the power forward position but, in this scenario, Epke Udoh is off the board. Ed Davis is a strong possibility here, but would the Pacers draft back-to-back Tar Heel bigs?

11. New Orleans Hornets
SG James Anderson, Oklahoma State

The Hornets need some fire power around Chris Paul but they have to be careful who they nominate to fill the void. Not just any star or scorer can play next to Paul, as I thought they were INSANE when they were courting Ben Gordon a few off-seasons back. Paul dominates the ball (meaning it is in his hands 90% of the time), so it is a very delicate balance adding talent around him because they have to be able to not only co-exist but make each other better. Anderson is such a natural scorer and he could be that extra punch that brings back the Hornets to respectability. In fact, I project Anderson to be the STEAL of the draft.

12. Memphis Grizzlies
SF Wesley Johnson, Syracuse

With the possibility of losing Rudy Gay in free agency looming, I would take precautionary measures. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, Johnson slides in this scenario (though I don’t think he will on draft night). The Grizzlies are actually in pretty good shape from top to bottom, as they don’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses. Who ever thought we’d be saying that?

13. Toronto Raptors
PF Ed Davis, UNC

With the likely departure of Chris Bosh, I expect the Raptors to take care of themselves here and take Davis. While there is always the possibility of his return, better to be safe than sorry and this is also a great value pick.

14. Houston Rockets
C Hassan Whiteside, Marshall

While Whiteside is very raw, he is skilled and has great size. For the Rockets, they hope Yao Ming comes back but he more than likely will never be healthy for long enough to matter ever again. If it were me, I’d start accepting this as fact and moving on. At this point in the draft, this is solid value.

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