By Ron Jumper
National Championship:
I cashed in both Duke and Butler on Saturday night, so I’m feeling good about tonight’s matchup. While everyone else is trying to hype this game up, I’m afraid it will be quite boring to watch. However, as I’ve always said when it comes to handicapping, boring is good.
Duke (-7) covers vs. Butler
Truthfully, there isn’t a lot I can say you haven’t already heard. I get tired of beating hit over the head with the same stuff so I won’t do the same thing to my readers. Bottom line, Duke is too explosive. Forget all the David vs. Goliath crap. Duke has been scoring in the 70s and I don’t think Butler can keep up in a track meet. Also, this is what Duke basketball is all about. They don’t lose these games, history is on their side. Butler has had a magical run that I hope gets Brad Stevens paid, but they are not only outmatched but they are not at full strength with Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard nicked up. I hate Duke as much as anyone, but they roll tonight.
*****
Final Four Picks
To be honest, I don’t really even know what to say about this group of Final Four teams. My bracket looks like I gave a 7 year old on adderall a red marker, thus my damaged ego simply won’t allow me to call myself a Bracketologist (or in my case Jumpologist) anymore. That being said, it wasn’t completely unforeseeable. There were some opportunities to read between the lines. Let me explain.
After Northern Iowa upset Kansas, I had a good feeling about Michigan State because of not only Tom Izzo but the fact that the Panthers would have had a week to read their press clippings. Truthfully, if UNI had played Michigan State the day after beating Kansas they likely would have won because of this and the fact the Spartans were still reeling from losing Kalin Lucas in the Maryland game. However, the Spartans had a week to regroup and come up with a new gameplan. Against Tennessee, I think it was a similar situation for the Spartans, except that in this case they took advantage of the Vols lack of discipline and outside shooting. Coach Izzo is a master at maximizing his strengths and limiting those of his opponent. If a team has a fatal flaw, his teams find a way to exploit it and emerge victorious.
As far as Butler, isn’t it amazing how they were losing by 6 at halftime to UTEP and were within a last second stop from losing to Murray State? All that being said, as bad as my bracket ended up I did mention that I was concerned about Syracuse playing a lot of good 3-point shooting teams along the way in their region. As we know, a 2-3 zone can be susceptible to hot outside shooting.
Although truthfully, I would say the biggest reason Butler was able to beat them was because of the play of Wesley Johnson. Whether you think he didn’t show up or Willie Veasley shut him down is your own call, but my eyes tell me that Johnson allowed himself to be shut down and didn’t make a big enough effort to assert himself despite being the best athlete on the floor at all times. Case in point, ignore the fact Johnson finished with 17 points because he only took 10 shots. Of the 6 shots he made, 4 were layups in transition which leaves 2 for 6 shooting in the actual flow of the offense. The Orange were struggling in the half court and needed their leader to step up, only to have him hide away from the ball and allow himself to be a non-factor until it was too late. Put it this way, I’d think twice before I drafted him in the top 5 and was counting on him developing into my franchise player. Guys either have that tenacious, competitive mentality or they don’t.
(On a side note, I’m the official leader of the “Why isn’t James Anderson an OBVIOUS lottery pick?” club. Just thought I should let everyone know so in a couple years when Evan Turner is doing his best Gerald Henderson impression on the Timberwolves bench I’ll be here to scream from the rooftops I told you so.)
On the other side of the bracket, my sleeper Final Four pick was Baylor but the referees late in that game decided that was a bad idea and Duke should win. I hate to sound like sour grapes but how else do you explain a close game within a point or two either way magically exploding to double figures seemingly with the blink of an eye? In fact, Baylor was up two with 4:37 remaining on the clock when Quincy Acy drove the baseline, made the bucket, and appeared to get fouled by Brian Zoubek only for it to be wiped away by a ridiculous charging call. Instead of potentially going up 5, Duke now had the ball down just a bucket. From then on, after being a physical game for the first 35 minutes, Duke wasn’t allowed to be touched and lived at the foul line because of invisible hand checks and a terrible technical foul on Quincy Acy after both teams had bodied up and woofed at each other. It was just depressing to watch, realizing that Baylor wasn’t allowed to win no matter what they did. On the other side, if you can’t beat ’em join ‘em. I’ll be riding the Duke bandwagon the rest of the dance because I have Vega… I mean Karma on my side.
Which leads me to…
Final Four Picks:
Butler (-1) covers vs. Michigan State
I like the home court advantage here and also feel like Butler lacks the weaknesses Izzo usually is able to find and exploit. The one weakness I would say Butler has is a lack of size, but the Spartans could have the same said about them as well. Thus, I expect Gordon Hayward to establish himself as a star on the national stage and for Shelvin Mack to make some timely, clutch baskets. As for Michigan State, it all evens out because they benefited last year from getting a virtual home game in the Final Four when it was held in Detroit. Funny how things work out sometimes…
Duke (-2) covers vs. West Virginia
Before I try to analyze the game, I must mention in a game that is expected to be close and can go either way I’m amazed at how many times it magically all seems to go Duke’s way. Thus, unless you just LOVE West Virginia here, the ultimate tiebreaker has to be the Duke Favoritism Law that has held true since I was a wee little lad in elementary school. Regardless, I don’t see the Mountaineers shooting 10 of 23 (43.5%) from 3-point range again. They haven’t shot like that all season, considering they were tied for 197th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage at 33.6% in the regular season. I’ll cringe at every bad call against West Virginia, but your money should be on Duke here.