sportsoverload.com

Free College Football Picks: Saturday

September 3rd, 2010

By Ron Jumper

Thursday night started off solid, with Minnesota covering the number and Utah getting the push in overtime. That leaves me at 1-0-1 ATS thus far. For this weekend, I’ve got a large slate of games that I like. I normally only take a small number of games but the opening couple of weeks of the season I usually find the most value because, quite frankly, there is never a time in the season when the public perception of the teams is further from reality. After all the teams have played several games, that gap closes and the lines get sharper. Keep in mind, the lines are made with the intent of “luring” the public into betting the wrong way or at the very least to get 50-50 action. To do that, you don’t make a line based off an exact power ranking. Nope, you base it off of where you think people will bet if the line is placed at one number over another. It is based on the public’s perception. Keep this in mind and never let the line deter you from making a pick if you believe your research is good.

Bankroll: $995
College Football Record: 1-0-1 ATS (+$50)
NFL Preseason Record: 11-10-1 ATS (-$55)

Florida (-36.5) covers vs. Miami (OH)*Risk $55 to win $50
The Gators have reloaded and this has some concerned. I’m the opposite, as I think they will let Brantley stay in longer to rack up numbers to “prove” that he is ready to step in and replace Tim Tebow. I also remind everyone that Urban Meyer is still the coach and he takes pride in destroying teams by as much as he possibly can. This is usually very helpful and makes bettors less nervous about the backdoor cover. I like the Gators here.

Texas (-31) covers vs. Rice*Risk $55 to win $50
The Longhorns will destroy the Owls here, as this is lopsided matchup. This game is on a neutral field in Houston and, while Rice is located there, we all know there will be more Texas fans then Rice fans. The Owls were 2-10 last season. The Longhorns played in the national championship. I see no way Texas allows Rice to breathe in this one. Take the Longhorns here.

Clemson (-27) covers vs. North Texas*Risk $55 to win $50
The Tigers return a strong nucleus of players, minus C.J. Spiller, and are far superior to the Mean Green in this matchup. Due to an injury in the offseason, Riley Dodge has been moved from quarterback to wide receiver because he no longer has free range of motion in his arm without it causing extreme pain. So to recap, a bad Sun Belt team breaking in a new QB on the road against top tier ACC school. This has blowout written all over it. Take Clemson.

Troy (-14) covers vs. Bowling Green*Risk $55 to win $50
The Trojans have been dynamic at home in recent memory, as they are 10-0 SU and 7-2 ATS (no line vs. Alcorn State in ‘08) over the last two years at Movie Gallery Stadium. With Bowling Green trying to recover from heavy losses at key positions, this has the makings of a massacre. I expect this one to be blown wide open early and for Troy to never look back. Take the Trojans.

Northwestern (-3.5) covers vs. Vanderbilt*Risk $55 to win $50
The Wildcats are a team that usually flies under the radar in situations like this. I’m not sure people really comprehend how bad Vanderbilt is going to be this season. Keep in mind, it took overtime for Auburn to survive Northwestern the last time we saw them. The same can’t be said about Vanderbilt, as they have little returning and have a interim coach running the show. Northwestern is 17-9 over the past two seasons, it is time we showed them a little respect. Better yet don’t, I will…

Oregon State (+13.5) covers vs. TCU*Risk $55 to win $50
I’m a big fan of TCU but I just think there is no way this line should be this big. Oregon State has playmakers and a great head coach in Mike Riley. Horned Frog quarterback Andy Dalton leads a talented bunch but I fully expect this Saturday night primetime matchup on ESPN to a close game that goes down the wire. TCU should win, but expect the Beavers to hang around and keep within striking distance.

Cincinnati (+2.5) covers vs. Fresno State*Risk $55 to win $50
The Bearcats are not going to fall off the map just because Brian Kelley left. Central Michigan didn’t drop off any when Butch Jones became their head coach after Kelley left, which leads me to believe this team will stay competitive once again this season. Zach Collaros was very good in his four starts last season and they return virtually all their playmakers except Mardy Gilyard. Expect Armon Binns to continue to emerge as a premier wide receiver in the country. I like Cincinnati to win straight up here.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

College Football Free Picks: Thursday

September 2nd, 2010

By Ron Jumper

So it is finally time to start picking college football games and I’m pretty excited. It is also means college fantast football is underway and it just happens to work out that I’m taking on last year’s FCFI champion, CollegeFootballGeek.com, in the first week of the premier college fantasy football expert league. CFG defeated me in the championship game last year so maybe I can luck out and take him down this time around. I’ve got my fingers crossed…

Anyways, back to the picks. I’ve got two plays for tonight that I like and, here shortly, you will understand exactly why. I’ve got 6 plays for this weekend and I’ll post those tomorrow. For now, here is tonight’s picks. Enjoy!

Bankroll: $945
Preseason Record: 11-10-1 ATS
College Football Record: 0-0 ATS

Minnesota (-1.5) over Middle Tennessee*Risk $55 to win $50
The dynamics of this game changed dramatically when the news broke that Dwight Dasher was not going to be playing. Dasher is the far and away most important player on the Blue Raider roster, as he led the team in rushing and passing. Now, they go from a dynamic playmaker like Dasher to Logan Kilgore who has never taken a snap at the Division I level. I like senior QB Adam Weber to lead the Gophers to a victory, despite breaking in a new defense.

Utah (-3) over Pitt*Risk $55 to win $50
The Utes are undervalued here, as I had this game closer to 6 points. Pitt is not as good as everyone thinks, they just have two names everyone recognizes in Dion Lewis and Jonathon Baldwin. You have to keep in mind they are breaking in a new players at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive back. The lack of experience at QB and along the OL are not recipes for success on the road and the lack of experience in the secondary could be a problem against Utah’s spread attack. I like the Utes to win comfortably tonight.

Posted in Free Picks, NCAAF | No Comments »

NFL Preseason Free Picks: Week 3

August 25th, 2010

By Ron Jumper

Here we are in week 3 of the preseason and, as bettors know, this is the last week of the preseason to get down any action. This is for two reasons. First, the last week of the preseason is a crapshoot because only backups play that are trying to make those final roster spots. Second, the college football season starts and there is much better action there than the preseason games (not to mention a lot more fun to watch). For this last week of preseason picks, I’ve got 5 strong plays. Enjoy!

Bankroll: $905
Preseason Record: 8-8-1 ATS

Colts/Packers Over 44.5*Risk $55 to win $50
This has all the makings of a shootout, as both offenses are explosive and neither defense is anything to write home about. In simple terms, with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers this one could be close to the Over by halftime. I expect the Colts defense to continue to get lit up, especially with the way Rodgers has been playing so far. Consider the Colts have given up 34 and 37 points in the first two weeks and didn’t play near the offense that the Packers possess. This has OVER written all over it.

New York Jets -4.5*Risk $55 to win $50
The Washington Redskins will not have Donovan McNabb and I just don’t see them being able to stay with the Jets in this one. Expect the defense to harass Rex Grossman and force a few turnovers, leading to an ugly yet decisive win for the Jets. This seems like a spot where the Redskins will not be up for this game and give a lackluster effort. Take J-E-T-S in this one.

Chargers/Saints Over 42.5*Risk $55 to win $50
In this situation, the Chargers have come out and said they are going to treat this road game as a test to prepare for the regular season just like they did last year. For those that are curious, the Chargers lost 24-27 to the Falcons but not before the first unit racked up 21 first half points. Against the Saints, one would expect a high scoring affair here. Take the Over.

Jaguars/Bucs Under 36.5*Risk $55 to win $50
Josh Freeman going down was a huge blow to the Bucs, as the backup quarterbacks are a glaring concern. I don’t expect the Bucs to be able to generate much offense here but they will hang around at home in a low scoring affair that is probably not going to be fun to watch. The Jaguars secondary has been suspect but the Bucs don’t have the weapons outside to exploit that weakness. Place your bet and watch something else, this will be a snoozefest. Take the Under.

Tennessee Titans +3*Risk $55 to win $50
The Titans are a strong preseason team, while the Panthers are one of the weaker preseason teams. I was projecting the Titans to be favored in this matchup, so getting points is a solid value here. I expect Tennessee to win straight up, as they should improve to 3-0 ATS in the preseason while the Panthers drop 0-2 SU and ATS. Take the Titans here.

Posted in Free Picks, NFL | No Comments »